This is the electoral version of the movie Groundhog Day. Iâm embarrassed that I identify with a party that falls for the same basic trick time and time again.
In Massachusetts the Republicans made a lame effort 2 years ago to use this issue in legislative races and they failed miserably. We all high-fived each other and gloated about how it back fired on them. But these guys donât give up. Hell, two years ago was a test run so theyâll get it right this yearâand so far they have.
The only thing Iâm unclear about with regards to the recent Globe story about state contractors hiring undocumented workers using obviously fake Social Security numbers, is whether Healey operatives actually did the research and handed the story to the Globe on a platter, or whether the successful âframingâ of the issue on the part of Healey consultants motivated the Globe to do the research? With spending cuts in the newsroom, Iâll make a real big bet on the former.
It has been so obvious this was coming, yet all three candidatesâand the lefty blogosphereâhas been caught flat-footed. Iâm no policy wonk and wonât muse on the subtlety of this issue. But I think I understand the convergence of politics, media and social behavior, and subtle policy issues play no role here. Itâs visceral, emotional sound-bites that will impact the swing voters on these issues and tilt the election to ANOTHER Republican win in the corner office.
For the average voter who kind-of pays attention and just picks up the outline of the subtle policy points we debate, the gist of it is, âleave them (undocumented workers) alone, they deserve a chance just like our immigrant ancestorsâ vs. âthese people are breaking the law, using fake Social Security cards, living on welfare and not paying taxes.â And there are some people who actually wonder why we keep losing elections? Instead of using the tried and true âtaxes and a one party stateâ play, this year the Massachusetts Republicans have upgraded to âtaxes, immigration and a one party stateâ play.
In the macro, the way to win an election is simple: control the agenda of what issues will be discussedâin debates, by the media and in TV ads. In October, if things like economic growth, local aid, property taxes and education are being discussedâwe win the Governorship. But if the focus of news stories, debate questions and TV spots are dealing with taxes and immigrationâwe have to face at least four years of Governor Healey.
Right now the Republican operatives are doing a hell-of-a-better job of shaping the battlefield than their Democratic counterparts. Yes, we are focused on a primaryâbut campaigns talk all the time and we have a lot of motivation to circle the wagons on this (and taxes) even though we have internal disagreements. Also, we do have a Victory â06 effort that should be trying to shape the battlefield for the fall (oh stop laughingâin theory, it is true).
Itâs been a bad few daysâwe now have NO DOUBT what theyâll be throwing at us in the fall. Letâs not keep doing the same thing again and expect a different outcome.
Gabrieli did a lit to moderate his position tonight, and it didn’t hurt to go right after Mihos’s thoughts on the issue (I’m pretty sure Mihos response on immigration was one of the few large-scale booings at the event). I’m thinking I may have overreacted to the parts of Gab’s position I had heard, but I think he probably should have realized any partial and unnuanced position on immigration was going to be jumped on (on either side). Deval’s right that this is an issue that is very complicated and we don’t help any the debate by oversimplifying it on any side of the issue.
<
p>
I think it’s good to tlk about the candidates different approaches to balancing human and labor rights with the security need to restrict immigration. But very true that they and us here should not get stuck in the trap.
Great post. Return us to the real reason why we’re here: defeating the GOP in November. Let’s state our positions on wedge issues and move on to real discussion of the real issues facing working families, youth, the elderly, etc.
<
p>
I’m as guilty as anyone else in terms of occasionally diving in head-first into a heated exchange. Frank’s right- we need to keep a proper perspective and use what resources we have to keep the media and public aware of the issues that are important to us as Democrats and as everyday residents of the Commonwealth.
We may be committing “friendly fire” but in politics, if no one was watching, you didn’t get hit. In a Governor’s race in June, no one’s watching. No one in this case means, no one who is actually a swing demographic in November. If you’re watching now, you’ve already picked your side.
<
p>
So let the candidates toss out a little “friendly fire” and get their stories straight so they don’t trip up in November. Consider it a pre-season game.
…what makes you think we won’t fall for a different trick in the fall? Yes, minimal damage in June. But look at the tactics and level of play Healey and Romney are executing this early.
<
p>
This was a twofer–Healey gets her media play, her opponents are âdefending their positionsâ and Mitt gets to tell rightwing Iowans that he’s trying to federalize the state police to keep America safe from aliens.
<
p>
Yes, it is preseason and I just saw a hell of a play by the Republicans that confounded our team, that makes me worried and we need to smarten up.
<
p>
If we’ve been winning against their play books, maybe I’d agree, “we’re all good”. But we haven’t, so history tells me we’re not “all good”.
Besides “circling the wagons” and “smartening up” what exactly are you suggesting the candidates do?
…maybe more on that tomorrow. Right now it’s late and if I write it will only get later and all I’ll be doing is hitting jeys pn rhe leyhoard.
in the last few days, has anyone heard a democrat offer a passionate rebuttal to the craven, dispicable phrase – “cut and run”.
Stay, Lie, and Die for no good reason!
called cut and run the GOPs plan… they cut taxes and run up a deficit.
Hello!
<
p>
Not sure what you point is or where this quote comes from.
The reason MA Democrats keep losing elections is that you donât listen to what voters want. You push policies which, when advertised and exploited by your opponents, sour the average voter to your position. Iâm not debating policy. Iâm debating campaign mechanics.
<
p>
A good example is the income tax rollback. Voters voted for it. Yet you continually agitate against it. Your policy reasons may all be valid and logical and righteous. But, still, the voters voted against it. Yet you continue to hold this position. You deny the political reality of the votersâ preference. âItâs trickery,â you complain, or âthe Republicans demagogue the issue,â or âwe havenât framed it right.â Whatever. The people still want the income tax rolled back to 5.0%. Itâs what was promised.
<
p>
I hear you argue on BMG all the time âhow important is it to people, whatâs the difference between 5.3% and 5.0%, they wonât care if we âframeâ properly the reasons for holding onto the extra 0.3%,â and so on. People do care. The roll back is a broken promise, and they still are angry about it. Least you forget, this was amply reflected in the referendum question (2002?) eliminating the income tax altogether which lost 55/45. In this state that can be considered a draw.
<
p>
Come the fall campaign, no matter what the Zogby poll shows today, your refusal to roll the rate back will be hammered, and hammered, and hammered. “Broken promise,” Healy will charge, “not trustworthy,” and evidence “they’ll raise your taxes.” You can see it coming. Can’t you?
<
p>
And now youâve fallen into the same self-defeating behavior on the illegal immigration issue. It appears a majority of people in MA want our state laws to be enforced. Itâs likely they have, in their own minds, considered the choices being offered them politically, choices which Frank frames perfectly: âleave them (undocumented workers) alone, they deserve a chance just like our immigrant ancestorsâ vs. âthese people are breaking the law, using fake Social Security cards, living on welfare and not paying taxes.â
<
p>
The way I read it, according to the Rasmussen poll cited in previous posts, theyâve made their choice: 58% want the issue of illegal immigration âsolvedâ (meaning border enforcement and employer sanctions) because they perceive this behavior as economically hurtful to them and unfair to others who obey the law by applying for green cards or work permits legally.
<
p>
The 2 choices Frank frames are not mutually exclusive. But progressives seem to have an unlimited supply of hubris which makes them unable to acknowledge the validity of other policy positions or opinions. So you revert to excusing these alternate viewpoints, promoted by the newspapers, talk radio and by the Healy, as campaign trickery.
<
p>
In politics and in policy, you want only what you want. My guess is that youâve sufficiently isolated yourself from voter sentiment that it takes once-in-a-decade correlation of political forces â Iraq, Romney, insert-your-beef-here â to win an election. If you were a consumer products company, like Gillette, or McDonalds, youâd be out of business within a couple of quarters.
<
p>
I donât mean any of this in a mean-spirited way. You hold your convictions and beliefs strongly. So do I. But as a conservative in a blue state Iâve had to accept the fact that my views will never be policy because Iâm too far to the right of the general MA voter. Perhaps youâre too far left, and need to accept that as a political disadvantage. No amount of âbattlefield framingâ will fix the problem. If you continue to blame trickery, negative advertising and voter stupidity for your election losses, be prepared for further losses.
<
p>
Instead try asking, “is illegal immigration really a problem? If so, what can be done to fix it yet meet our goals of providing opportunity to new immigrants?”
<
p>
Try accepting that âthese people are breaking the law, using fake Social Security cards, living on welfare and not paying taxesâ is a real problem which concerns the average voter. Help solve this problem and voters will give you the keys to the Corner Office.
<
p>
If you canât bring yourselves to acknowledging illegal immigration as a valid political campaign issue, which the majority of people in MA believe is a serious economic and social problem, then I canât see you winning many elections anytime soon.
I won’t refute any of your points–like most arguments, I find some truth in what you say. Yes, something has to be done about immigration. But where on the priority list should it be? Folks like you whip up lots of emotion and anecdotal stories–but very little facts to convince me that it should be a top public policy priority.
<
p>
There is plenty of evidence that global warming should be addressed before immigration, be Iâm sure you would like to ignore that issue.
<
p>
Communities are laying off teachers and cutting back services and that is a bigger issue than immigration.
<
p>
The cost of housing in the state and our loss of population which is hurting our economic growth and is a more important issue than immigration.
<
p>
Yet those issues are ignored as people get wipe up by emotional agitators with very little facts and figures. As exhibit A to back up my point, I submit you as proof.
<
p>
Yes I want immigration fixed. But I want a lot more issues fixed first, because they are more important. Of course these issue are things conservatives / Republicans like to ignore and that is why they wave the bloody flag of immigration and taxes.
I agree with your point about the tax rollback. Without causing this particular horse to be further converted into hamburger, I have this question:
<
p>
Why is it that Democrats feel the negative repurcusions of this issue only in the governor’s race? Why doesn’t this ever harm the ones actually responsible for the policy– the Democrats in the legislature?
<
p>
My opinion is that it would hurt the Democrats in the legislature, if only there was a vable opposition to those Democrats. If you always run unopposed, or the functional equivalent to unopposed, then you don’t much feel the effects of the negative reaction. In the governor’s race, which actually functions as an election, the issue bites.
<
p>
This is why I have always thought that the best thing for the Massachusetts Democratic party, and even for that portion of the party that always fancies itself to be more progressive than everyone else, would be a revived Republican party at the local level. A little competition would be a good thing for this decadent legislature. It certainly would be agood thing for the governance of the Commonwealth.
<
p>
Better, if Republicans were something other than an endagered species in Massachusetts, they might be able to function as something of a counterweight to the nutjobs presently in control in Congress.
We’ve had a Republican Governor for the last 16 years–don’t you think they desrve some of the responsiblity? Why are questions about illegal immigrants folder fro discussion by Romney/Healey during elections only? May they really could care less about this issue–except to use it to win votes in an election.
<
p>
Again, I believe we need to address the immigration issue. But we have greater issues to address as I stated above.
<
p>
Do you feel rooting out illegal immigrants is more important than giving you kid(s) a better education? Kerry Healey and Boston Shepard apparently do.
But I acknowledge that their power do much of anything setting the agenda for the legislature is non-existent.
<
p>
So, to a certain extent, illegal immigration might be something more of an “own goal” than the pension issue raised last week, because the governors probably have greater executive latitude to deal with police enforcment than they do in setting up pension plans. My point was more directed to the tax rollback issue raised in comments.
<
p>
With respect to immigration, even if it is an “own goal,” it highlights a problem for the Democratic candidates for governor. That problem is a classic one for Democrats everywhere: as a party largely comprised of activists on this or that issue, the party is very likely to be ideologically diverse on any one issue. Immigration, or, more accurately, illegal immigration is one of these issues. Democrats disagree among themselves; it is therefore a wedge issue.
<
p>
Kerry Healy is not incompetent. She knows how to deploy a wedge issue. Doing so isn’t unfair or dirty politics. It is just painful for Democrats.
I would agree the threat posed by illegal immigrants is being exaggerated by conservative adventurists. What matters is not whether conservative policy arguments (e.g. wage depression, welfare stampede, security threat) are entirely valid, but why they have as much support as they do among average voters.
<
p>
Could it be there are other factors at work here? What I would suggest is a creeping diversity fatigue (remember Question 2?), coupled with the leap of insecurity following 9/11. This juncture makes me think of the Roman Empire, say from the reign of Diocletian to Constantine. Under the first, the empire sharply broke off from its Roman/Italian base. By the time of Constantine, the last vestige of republican rule was replaced by a more starkly military dictatorship, and there was the drive for a new unifying force, partly driven by a sense of vulnerability to encroachments. The unifying force was the transformation of Christianity into an official state religion, supplanting the tired gestures of the old civic paganism.
<
p>
There are certainly reasons why I hope this parallel doesn’t hold. And I wish I could blame all the negative developments on the progressively dictatorial rulers, but I suspect there was some enabling by the average nominal Roman.
<
p>
Nor is there much comfort in US history. Antagonism toward immigrants is hardly new, but there might be more of a problem with one of our traditional safety valves: the ability to stretch the frontier and get away from people whose values and attributes seem alien. Many people can overcome prejudices and phobias by becoming more cosmopolitan, or getting their foothold in the middle class. To the extent other people find this more difficult, or that the middle-class foothold becomes less secure, acceptance of immigrants (even legal immigrants) will be a tougher sell.
JOBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<
p>
http://lmi2.detma.org/lmi/News_release_state.asp
<
p>
The rise in employment is reflected in the college degree’d & the Phd crowd,
Not the lower wage earners!!!
<
p>
snip–>
<
p>
“Trade, transportation, and utilities employment was down 1,400 in May to 568,700,
due to slower than usual seasonal increases in some wholesale and retail trade industries.
Employment is off 2,200 from one year ago, one of only two super sectors to show
an over the year job decline.
Employment in general merchandise stores was off 1,600 from one year ago, with
food and beverage stores, health and personal care stores, air transportation, and truck
transportation also posting job losses.”
<
p>
“Construction employment decreased by 500 in May.
Employment trends have been down in 2006 with job losses recorded three of the past four
months and a net decrease of 1,700 jobs since January.”
<
p>
“Leisure and hospitality employment was off 200 in May…”
<
p>
“fabricated metals and machinery industries each added 200 jobs in May.
At 305,500, manufacturing employment is down 700 or 0.2 percent from one year ago.”
<
p>
“Manufacturing employment is down 104,900 jobs, or 25.6 percent, since reaching 410,400
in July 2000.”
<
p>
“The labor force (the sum of the employed and the unemployed), increased by 11,700 over the
month, after declining by 27,000 over the prior two month period.
<
p>
The labor force at 3,350,300 is down 12,800 from one year ago.” <– snip
I’m unemployed and my son is going to be entering the trades next year and will HE be able
to find a job that pays a living wage? Seems he has some illegal immigrant competition!
<
p>
Why don’t the elite libs give a rats ass about their own citizens? I just don’t get it!
You think this is “just” a wedge issue and on some levels, I agree but since outsourcing became
a way of life and look at H-1B visas for high- tech and L-1As for low tech and the importing of techies
to do jobs in the US, How can you NOT see that this is becoming a HUGE issue, regardless
of who’s shouting the loudest?
The people whom have lost jobs were looking for ANY jobs and they weren’t there because
even lower wage earners were taking them! (illegal immigrants) And the wages ARE considerably lower!
<
p>
Why do the Dems care more about them, than my family?
That’s the question a lot of people are asking!
PAY ATTENTION!
<
p>
A nurse from Texas wrote (and she’s a Dem):
“We recently received a $2 million dollar check from the govt. to cover the cost of “indigent care”
that we provide. We are suppose to get quite a bit more this year. Now, mind you, indigent care
also encompasses the 45 million legal American citizens that do not have healthcare.
But, the the vast majority of people that we care for, who can not pay, are illegal immigrants.”
<
p>
If you think this isn’t being discussed far and wide; you are wrong!
<
p>
WAKE UP!!
My basic point is that Republicans don’t really care about solving the immigration issue–certainly not George Bush, but Republicans care about using the issue to create fear and anger so people will vote against their opponents.
<
p>
Do you think for one second that Republicans like Kerry Healey and W care about your (and my) wages going down? They are positively representing the business interests who want to see wages depressed–better for profits.
<
p>
You slam the Democrats in your post. But you are being conned by the Republicans. Sure some of them scream about the problems of illegal immigration (and I do not dispute there are problems–depressed wages being the biggest), but Republicans giving you a bone and making it seem like they’re fighting for you. They are fighting for the business interests that want lower wages, or want jobs to move off-shore.
<
p>
I think you should wake up, You cite 2 million dollars to care for indigent care and most of that is helping illegal aliens and your screaming your pants of. Yet do you scream when Halliburton screws taxpayers of hundreds of millions of dollars? And they’re just one of many corporations ripping you off and you have no clue.
<
p>
You are getting conned and you need to WAKE UP!
I was replying to this topic, NOT to you!
I may have clicked on the wrong place to add my reply.
Again, my apologies for any confusion.
<
p>
I’m well aware of the pigs playing to big corporations.
That is why I said that I did see this as being used as a wedge issue by them!
<
p>
Do I scream at the pigs?? Hell yes!
But Dems deserve their share of the blame.
NAFTA comes to mind!
Among other votes where the “Dems” voted with the criminals in the house and senate!
<
p>
I am a Dem; so, consider this a family chastising. 😉
<
p>
I have watched the so-called “Dems” (DLC) support war and join the cheerleaders!
My family has been directly affected by them and their votes!
I hope they are all thrown out on their ears!!
But that’s another topic…
<
p>
2 million illegal immigrants arriving EVERY year is insane!
Immigration should be regulated, as it always has been or should’ve been.
Period!
<
p>
It effects wages, jobs, housing, health care and I’m sure, a myriad of other social issues.
<
p>
Peace!
<
p>
OUT OF IRAQ NOW!! Bring our troops home…NOW!!
<
p>
conservatives, and the party that represents them, love to traffic in neighbor-against-neighbor politics.
for the benefit of themselves. and their fatcat friends.
just look at the issues that they try to exploit;
<
p>
– the marraige of the lesbian couple across town denigrates YOUR marraige.
– providing medicaid to the single mother down the street is taking money out of YOUR pocket.
– raising the minimum wage for one of those immigrant workers on the corner is going to put YOUR job at risk.
<
p>
and if we aid these kind of bogus, smokescreen tactics by buying into them, then shame on us!
<
p>
in the aftermath of the civil war, there was a concerted campaign by the land and money holders in the south (and their benefactors in the north) to convince the toiling class whites (the majority) that the newly enfranchised blacks were their enemy and a threat to their livlihood. because they knew that if poor whites were allowed to recognize that their interests were more aligned with poor blacks than with the few rich whites holding power, then the entrenched money interests were at great risk. thus the need for bogus neighbor-against-neighbor politics.
<
p>
so, are you going to fall for it this time?
“raising the minimum wage for one of those immigrant
workers on the corner is going to put YOUR job at risk.”
<
p>
I’m all for raising the minimum wage! But adding 2 million undocumented workers into an already sorry job market is unfair and unpatriotic! How many unemployed aren’t even being counted anymore? Do even you know or care?
<
p>
Yes, I agree the corporations want more illegal immigrants because they can exploit them and look the other way! Just as the increase in illegal immigration is increasing or keeping unemployment steady for many citizens.
<
p>
There are a million places to look up these statistics on the web. Do a search yourself!
<
p>
And I don’t consider my viewpoint a xenophobic one. It’s not about “The Indians are coming here and grabbing our jobs.” It’s about “The corporations are stacking the system to take away Americans’ middle class jobs and hand them to whatever foreigners can do the job for the lowest cost.”
<
p>
Here’s a recent article that addresses some of the above mentioned info:
Job growth slows to a crawl; may give Fed cause for a pause
Updated 6/2/2006 6:48 PM ET
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2006-06-02-jobs-may_x.htm
<
p>
<
p>
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0310/p17s01-cogn.html
<
p>
Why the new jobs go to immigrants
snip>
In fact, neither Republicans nor Democrats have promoted enforcement of immigration law prohibiting the hiring of illegal immigrants, says Mr. Sum, head of Northeastern’s Center for Labor Market Studies.
<
p>
Of course, not every job filled by an immigrant is taken away from a native American, a native German, a French citizen, or other national.
<
p>
Most immigrants take jobs at the bottom of the ladder, jobs which many natives won’t seek because they are considered too hard, pay too little, or have lost status, Papademetriou notes.
<
p>
And the people they do displace often have little political clout. Sum sees immigrants as one factor behind today’s historical low employment rate among US teenagers. Barely more than a third hold jobs. Over the past four years, the number of employed teens has declined by nearly 1.3 million.”
<
p>
“But a new study by Sum and his colleagues at Northeastern finds that 2.5 million teens last year were unemployed, underemployed, or had stopped looking for work in the past month. They faced severe competition for jobs from young adults, older women, and immigrants – most of whom are young.<-snip
snip->
In occupational fields with many immigrants, native-born workers tend to have higher jobless rates. The four occupations with the largest number of newly arrived immigrants (1.4 million in construction, food preparation, cleaning and maintenance, and production workers) employ 21.4 million natives, and have more than 2 million unemployed natives.
<
p>
What employers really want in many cases by hiring immigrants is to hold down wage costs, experts say.” <-snip
——————–
NYT’s Reporter: Blaming People for their Own Layoffs is causing Sickness!
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=7488
<
p>
A good read if you want to know what’s happened to America since the late 1970’s.
Interview covers NAFTA/BuyOuts/Unemployment and the way we have been manipulated for decades by the “powers that be.”
<
p>
The following is a transcript of Nayan Chanda’s interview with Louis Uchitelle, economics writer for âThe New York Timesâ and also the author of âThe Disposable American: Layoffs and Their Consequences,â
conducted on May 11, 2006. â YaleGlobal
<
p>
<
p>
http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=17252&hed=IT+Labor+Market+Stumbles
<
p>
IT Labor Market Stumbles
<
p>
Report finds that less than one-quarter of technology jobs lost since recession has been recovered.
June 15, 2006
<
p>
The U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday that first-time applications for state unemployment benefits dropped by 8,000 to 295,000 for the week ending June 10, the lowest level of new claims since mid-February, but another report shows that the labor market for information technology workers in the United States is a long way from recovering.
<
p>
The study found that less than one-quarter of IT workers who lost their jobs in the early part of the decade have recovered their jobs over the past three years. Only 76,300 new IT jobs have been added since April 2003.
<
p>
The report, prepared by the Center for Urban Economic Development at the University of Illinois, Chicago, for the Washington Alliance of Technology Workers (WashTech), an affiliate of the Communication Workers of America (CWA) labor union, found that between March 2001 and March 2004, the IT industry shed about 402,800 jobs. Only a fraction of those jobs have been recovered. <-snip
“However, other parts of the country have seen only modest recovery. Boston, Chicago, Dallas, and San Jose have experienced modest increases in IT industry employment,”
<
p>
<
p>
âIn terms of what youâre seeing with the drop in unemployment levels, itâs clear that youâre finding high-tech workers have either dropped completely out of the tech market or are off the unemployment rolls, or they are taking jobs below their skill level with less pay,â said Marcus Courtney, president of WashTech/CWA.
<
p>
<
p>
He believes the H1B visa program for bringing in tech workers from other countries will undermine companies hiring domestically in the U.S. and undermine wages.
<
p>
âThe H1B visa program provides a lack of worker protections around wages and allows employers to pay less than the market rate for domestic workers,â said Mr. Courtney.
âIt is increasing the competition in the labor market for the fewer and fewer jobs that are being created.â
I was replying to this topic, NOT to you!
I may have clicked on the wrong place to add my reply.
Again, my apologies for any confusion.
<
p>
I’m well aware of the pigs playing to big corporations.
That is why I said that I did see this as being used as a wedge issue by them!
<
p>
Do I scream at the pigs?? Hell yes!
But Dems deserve their share of the blame.
NAFTA comes to mind!
Among other votes where the “Dems” voted with the criminals in the house and senate!
<
p>
I am a Dem; so, consider this a family chastising. 😉
<
p>
I have watched the so-called “Dems” (DLC) support war and join the cheerleaders!
My family has been directly affected by them and their votes!
I hope they are all thrown out on their ears!!
But that’s another topic…
<
p>
2 million illegal immigrants arriving EVERY year is insane!
Immigration should be regulated, as it always has been or should’ve been.
Period!
<
p>
It effects wages, jobs, housing, health care and I’m sure, a myriad of other social issues.
<
p>
Peace!
<
p>
OUT OF IRAQ NOW!! Bring our troops home…NOW!!
<
p>
n1