We’re a very long way from September.
CONVENTION REACT
I agree that Patrick and Gabrieli have some passionate supporters, and they were all pretty much in that convention center. I agree that Reilly got schooled at the caucuses and convention — but he got 28%. Twenty-eight percent and he frankly didn’t give a flying ham about the caucuses — he phoned it in and still got over a quarter (more on that later). Gabrieli and Patrick went to the wall — one slipped over 15% and the other couldn’t crack 60%.
Not that it matters. Having lots of activists guarantees each of them some 10% of the primary ballot. But despite what some pundits want to believe, the party “endorsement” is basically meaningless to anyone who wasn’t at the DCU Center. It’s not really mentioned beyond this weekend, doesn’t really accrue any bonus resources — basically, it’s a rationalization for conventions. How many casual voters do you know who say “but wait — who got the party endorsement” ? Me neither. For that matter, it’s easy to confuse. What sounds best?
“Endorsed by the Democratic Party”
“Previous Democratic camdidate for Lieutenant-Governor”
“Democratic Attorney General”
They all sound kinda “endorsed” to me.
Don’t get me wrong, I had a great time at the convention. They’re great. Meet interesting people and political celebrities. Expensive concessions during the day. Free drinks at night. Waiting for other people to count. But in terms of procedural importance in candidate selection, they’re either a formal exercise confirming what happened in the primaries (national) or a get-together that barely effects what will happen during the primary (state.)
As for press momentum coming out of the convention, yeah every newspaper had a shot of Deval Patrick. Most broadcasts ranked his victory below flooding and traffic accidents. Let’s see how many mention it on Sunday. Or Tuesday. I don’t believe we have a lot of people in June who are wondering who to vote for in September. Fewer who will connect the two.
What we’re seeing is vote parking in poll after poll — and frankly in conversation after conversation. They aren’t paying attention, so they say they’ll vote for any name they’ll recognize. Remember when Lieberman had an overwhelming lead in 2003 for the nomination? Gabrieli has been winning in polls because he’s been on tv. Patrick will move up since he’s getting some headlines.
People are just projecting. Everyone is for hope and after-school programs. But I don’t see too many people in Mass. who can name a single platform plank for any of these guys. All three of them have significant support that’s rather shallow.
PREDICTIONS
Current polls are basically meaningless. Being the hero of experienced politicnas (aka “THE ESTABILSHMENT!!”), the hero of experienced activists, or the hero to experienced tv watchers doesn’t mean anything. It won’t for another few months.
I’m not goin to get into anecdotal comparisons. For every reluctant Reilly supporter others mentioned, I found someone who went to Chris because they felt Patrick was a lightweight who made promises but had no idea how to deliver. Heck, I talked to one delegate who broke away from Reilly because he didn’t get a personal phone call from him.
Frankly, I don’t see Patrick winning in September. I rode this ride back when it was called “Howard Dean” and I remember how it ended — I was there in Iowa and New Hampshire. I’d knock on doors if he ran for dogcatcher, but in the end, he didn’t win. And we can blame anyone and anything we want, but he still didn’t win. Neither did Ciro Rodriguez. Insurgents have an uphill climb, and Deval is still largely an insurgent to most people. The passion of activists isn’t enough — you need to convince the non-activists.
Not to mention that he hasn’t been vetted yet. Gabrieli and Reilly have been through the wringer in a way Patrick is just starting. Ameritrade isn’t going to go away, Coca-Cola won’t go away, the lack of elected experience won’t go away. We can be mad at the media for bringing it up, or at voters for caring, but it will be an issue.
And I’m not even mentioning the real Deval-killer: “electability”. He’s never beaten Healey head-to-head in a poll.
Gabrieli has a reassuring technocrat thing going for him. People know his name, and he comes across as smarter than Healey. His afterschool and stem-cell stuff is good for a limited amount of mileage, but it’s still pretty good. He completely neutralizes Deval’s supposed advantage from being in the private sector. He’s still an unknown quantity.
From August until the primary, the money race is a wash — Reilly has enough and Patrick will have enough to neutralize Gabrieli’s advantage. We’ll be inundated with ads, but nobody will outspend the other notably.
Reilly can’t campaign and can’t give a speech. But there is a massive point that I want to raise — Reilly hasn’t started campaigning for the nomination yet. I understand that a lot of people want to hope that he won’t start. MAybe he’s so incompetent a politician that he won’t. But I doubt it.
From day one, he’s been focused on November. Through the caucuses, the money race, even the convention. Deval’s first words at the convention were aimed at the other campaigns. So were Gabrieli’s. They were nice, they weren’t negative, but they were about hte convention and the primary. Reilly didn’t mention it — if you didn’t know better, you wouldn’t realize that he had primary opposition.
He and his people are utterly focused on November — and Healey and her people are utterly focused on him. I think when his campaign genuinely prepares for the primary, which they haven’t even started to do yet, things will change.
Reilly is the only one who can point to something he did for the citizens of Massachusetts. Microsoft, tobacco, health insurance. He has a long record. On Saturday he just nicked the incredibly rich vein called “I’m the only one here who isn’t filthy rich”. We’ll be hearing a lot about Watertown.
In the end, you have hope and hype. And you have experience.
Deval carries activists, Western Mass., and Cambridge. Gabrieli does okay on the 128 corridor and nets some last-minute voters because of his ad blitz. But a lot of the money goes for naught. Unions break for Reilly, so do the voters who need to vote Democratic to stop Healy in November. Working class neighborhoods and marginals. It’s close, but it’s done.
Reilly 41%
Patrick 37%
Gabrieli 24%
