Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Delegate Counting

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Scott Helman gives us the old-school, boss round-up of delegates in today’s Globe, with some important counts for Reilly.

If the local bosses lining up behind Reilly, can really deliver the votes, than Reilly could clear the 765 delegate (15%) mark easily.

Here’s Helman’s breakdown for Reilly:

Menino, Boston: 160-200, out of the city’s 386 delegates)

Glodis, Worcester: undetermined, out of Worcester County’s 439 delegates

Lambert, Fall River: “solid majority” of the city’s 69 delegates

Deval gets Curtatone, Somerville and potentially McGovern, Worcester. My question is, with our Congressional delegation lining up behind Deval, how much does that transfer to the local level and actual votes? Does a McGovern, Worcester City, trump a Glodis, Worcester City?

(Gabrieli, by the way, gets Quincy. Can he get more? We’ll see.)

And then there’s Dan Payne’s roundup on the Op-Ed page predicting dire straits for Reilly and Gabrieli.

Payne also gets at the balloting process:

PAST DEMOCRATIC conventions have lasted longer than the hunt for Jimmy Hoffa’s remains. Saturday’s could end suddenly. Candidates must win 15 percent of delegates on first  ballot, unless no one gets majority. Deval Patrick has majority locked. Late-entry Chris, hereafter known as “Gabby,” Gabrieli pressing hard. Tom Reilly shaky.

so can Patrick get that majority (+50%)and do we end on the first ballot?

other scenarios?

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Comments

  1. I believe that 386 is the number of delegates elected at the caucuses from Boston.  That number grows significantly with the add-ons, especially from the communities of color. The Second Suffolk District, for example, has over 200 delegates itself, all from Boston.  The First Suffolk has a somewhat smaller but still significant number, and there are 4 other Senate Districts that include a piece of Boston.

  2. I posted this comment on the Conventional Wisdom : Gubernatorial Prediction diary this morning, seems just as relevent over here:

    <

    p>

    Based on the delegate ratios from Dan Payne’s article today Patrick could pitch shutout (which is a clearly exagerated title), I made this rough estimated based on DP and TR keeping 90% of their 2/3 and 1/3 of caucus delegates and then splitting the ex-officio etc 1/3 each:

    Totals  3,500  1,500  5,000  100%
    Patrick  2,100  500  2,600  52%
    Reilly  1,050  500  1,550  31%
    Gabrieli  350  500  850  17%

    by: alexwill @ June 01, 2006 at 09:10:07 EST

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    Personally, I hope Jim McGovern trumps Guy Glodis. Guy Glodis was a once my state senator, and I have less respect for him than any so-called “Democrat” I can imagine.

  3. The Dems make a rules change, all three get on ballot in sneaky stupid way.

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    Or else, rules change defeated, then:
    * Deval majority, Reilly gets 15%, Gabrieli bumped

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    Gabby doesn’t have it, I’d wager.

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