So, it’s finally here. The moment we’ve all been waiting for. And it’s time for my predictions and thoughts on what happens if I’m right.
1. No matter what happens in the Gov. race, as long as Gabrieli gets on the ballot, he’s the “winner” of the convention. Even if it’s 85%-15% Deval, Gabs still is the story. First ballot prediction: 65% Deval, 18% Gabs, 17% Reilly.
2. If Tim Murray doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s not going to get the bump out of the Convention he’s hoping for to boost his fundraising because people will no longer see him as the leader. If he does, however, then he will be in a very strong position going forward. First ballot prediction: Murray 42%, Silbert 32%, Goldberg 26%. Second ballot: Murray 52%, Silbert 48%.
3. John Bonifaz has made a lot of noise around these parts, but I’m not sure how much he has connected with the delegates. First ballot prediction: Galvin 76%, Bonifaz 24%.
If I’m right, then Reilly should hunker down and do some hardcore retail and adopt a “comeback kid” strategy. Deval is in trouble, and Chris is, as I said, the winner.
In the LG’s race, if this is the outcome, Murray’s failure to win on the first ballot/close shave establishes Silbert and gives people a reason totake a flyer on her candidacy because she just might pull it off. With her 150K fundraising advantage, she could widen the gap and be the only one able to compete with Deb’s gazillions on the air.
And Galvin should cruise.
Check back next week to see how far off I really was!
Reading the papers today, it’s clear that no matter what happens at the convention, the story is going to be Gabrieli. If he gets on the story is that he got on; if he doesn’t then that’s the story.
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Anything else that happens this weekend is likely to be a footnote.
Hoss- I think you are dead-on, give or take a few percentage points, in all three races. It will be interesting to see what happens.
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I’m not sure, however, how you come to the conclusion that “Deval is in trouble” post-convention. Surely Gabrieli has some momentum and has his own personal fortune to tap, but Patrick has raised more money from donations than either of the other candidates over the last six months, will surely get a post convention bump and has far more active volunteers than either of the other campaigns.
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Patrick has received money from over 12,000 different donors. Gabrieli, on the other hand, (as of the last filing deadline) had only received $11,000 from people not named Chris Gabrieli. TV ads out of his own wallet will only get him so far over the next three months.
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Either way, I think this goes down to the wire on September 19th.
My guess is that because Deval is so heavily favored (according to all conventional — hah — accounts) going into the convention, that if he gets anything less than 65-75% of the delegates, it will be perceived/spun as a failure/weakness/loss of momentum/whatever….
First ballot
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DP: 63%. Free Cokes all around, with a few adjustible rate mortgages for the hardest-working volunteers.
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Reilly: 22%. Menino celebrates following morning on the first tee with a might John Daly like swing, smacking a huge banana slice, breaking a few car windows. Reilly calls DA to not press charges, says cars have suffered enough.
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Gabby: 14.9% – just misses. Huge debate on “rounding.” Huge debate on whether to consult math MCAS or whether that constitutes endorsement of MCAS. Gabby decides to run as a Green.
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Write-Ins
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Theo Epstein: 1%.
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Jack E. Robinson .00001%.
DP 66
TR 21
CG 13
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Biggest surprise of the convention? Maybe Silbert. And the fact that Goldberg is gone by the end of next week.
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YIKES – how’s that for making foolish predictions