Here are a few reasons G+R should get out, a la Weld.
The NY results: Faso 62%, Weld 38%. Patrick’s 58% to Reilly’s 27% and Gabrieli’s 15% is a similar ‘blowing ’em out of the water’ kind of result.
The person who wins the convention usually wins the primary. G+R have better uses for their time and money.
Party unity does matter. If beating so-so Republicans with thin resumes and dubious personal finances was so easy, Paul Cellucci would never have been more than LG. Plus Kerry Healey has dough.
And some reasons why they shouldn’t.
Perhaps Patrick is not the most competitive standard bearer for the party. Will ‘Reagan Democrats’, ethnic white economically centrist Democratic social conservatives, vote for Patrick? Or do they matter? Is racism an issue, even if they won’t admit it, for many voters?
Reilly will give you $4 million reasons. Gabrieli has already given you 2.6 million reasons. And that’s just for starters…
They’re all in this to win. Weld/Faso isn’t really a good comparison, since neither of them has any real shot at beating Spitzer anyway.
<
p>
Also – “The person who wins the convention usually wins the primary.” Not necessarily true, as has been remarked in numerous threads ’round here.
I think the two guys at the top of the polls should drop out of the race to clear the deck for the candidate who won the endorsement of a very small fraction of the electorate. As they say on the Guinness ads, Brilliant!
<
p>
In all seriousness, congratulations to Deval Patrick for winning the convention. It was part of his strategy and he succeeded. Well done. However, you cannot be serious that either Reilly or Gabrieli should drop out on the basis of the convention’s endorsement, can you?
<
p>
I think it is a better idea to let the entire party (and some Unenerolled voters) determine who represents our party in the November.
How does it Get Deval elected?
I’ll have to rethink that one!
with that 5 rating
(I still disagree with your sentiment on the race, but you made me laugh)
I don’t like the Republican strategy of bossed primaries (and I don’t like it when Democrats do it, either – Emmanuel Rahm taking out Christine Cegelis disgusts me and I loathe the DCCC and actively urge people not to support them).
<
p>
Whoever the nominee is, they’ll be better for having gone through a primary. And on average, primary voters will make a better selection than party bosses. Now, sure, party bosses in this case would prefer we went with Gabrieli, so the convention endorsement isn’t quite the same thing. And primary voters sometimes choose the wrong candidate too. But overall, I think we’re a better stronger party for letting our candidates duke it out in public primaries, rather then selecting the nominee.
<
p>
One thing I do worry about is the multicandidate dynamic that happens when you have a clear frontrunner. It’s fortunate that we don’t have a clear frontrunner yet, but if Deval Patrick does become that, we could get Reilly and Gabrieli teaming up on him. If you combine that with Gabrieli failing to agree to a spending cap, and we’ll have a high-spending two-on-one that will be awful for our candidates and our chances in November. So I really hope that we don’t develop a “frontrunner” dynamic in this race, and that Gabrieli does opt in to a spending cap (even though I doubt he will).
<
p>
We could do better if we had instant runoff voting. Multicandidate primaries are much less destructive when everyone wants other candidates’ supporters’ #2 votes, and we’d be much less likely to get a two-on-one campaign.
Absolutely not, Chris Gabrieli and Tom Reilly should not drop out and thankfully they will not. The Deval Patrick campaign seems to feel that Deval should be the annointed the Democratic nominee and that he should not have to earn it by getting the most voters to vote for him in the September primary. For a bunch of people that profess to want strict adherence to the rules, they now want to have any easy ride to the general election by advising and hoping beyond hope that the other two candidates will miraculously drop out of the race. Dream on Deval backers. Why should Gabrieli and Reilly, who are ahead of your candidate in EVERY poll, step aside? Your candidate was the darling of the convention’s party insiders and activists, but that is a million miles away from being the Democratic nominee in September. In opinion polls, Patrick is last and therfore, at least presently, has the worst chance of capturing the nomination. In order to be the nominee, you must EARN the most votes in September,and Deval most assuredly has an uphill battle ahead of him in this regard.
went from 0 to 58% based upon the work of regular people. There is no doubt that he will continue to gain popularity at the same rate during the next few months. He has the energy and the charisma and has captured the imaginations of those who seek change. Reilly has dropped from the supposed front runner position of last year to having a minimal level of support from the good ole boys (many of whom left him for Gabrieli after the St. Fleur and “I’m not good at politics” fiascos). Gabrieli is trying to buy the nomination and has nowhere near the level of local support and enthusiasm that Deval has acquired. Deval has said that he will support whomever wins if its not him. Reilly would not make the same claim. Gabrieli? Who knows. I would assume that you will support whomever wins the primary because Kerry Healey would be another four-year disaster for this state — right?
Deval and to a much lesser extent Reilly sent supporters to the February caucus to be elected. To Deval’s credit, he managed to get most of his delegates elected giving Reilly and late-comer Gabrieli a much smaller pool of delegates to swim in. Deval did not go from 0 to 58%. Many delegates who were elected were committed to voting for Deval. However, if I was inclined to believe the Patrick campaign rhetoric, Deval actually lost support going from 70% to 58% of delegate support. So did the Deval Campaign lie about, overestimate or lose delegate support?
You do realize that many of the delegates at the convention are not elected at the caucuses.
<
p>
The perecentage of caucus-elected delegates is in fact lower this year than it has been in the past. Winning even 70% of the caucuses does not translate into 70% of the convention.