Can this be right? Zogby’s nifty flash site at the Wall Street Journal shows all three Dems romping over Healey:
Patrick: 55.7%
Healey: 33.7%
Gabrieli: 52.1%
Healey: 32.5%
Reilly: 49.4%
Healey: 33.7%
Entertainment purposes only, blah blah blah. And of course, we haven’t hit high media season, where Gab won’t be the only pretty face on TV.
UPDATE: sco thinks I’m a damn fool for even posting on this. Here’s why.
Please share widely!
but interesting. it’s misleading because it only seems to be one-on-one contests, without Mihos, though it does show that even if Christy drops out for some reason, all the Dems have a strong shot at winning.
but Zogby’s nifty flash site at the WSJ suffers from general suckitude. Not the bad-interface-ugly-colors kind, but the far more serious poor-sampling-biased-crap kind.
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So — I hope Zogby is right, but I suspect that if he is, it isn’t because of his mad prognostication skillz.
Zogby Interactive is one step above a poll on the Globe’s website in terms of meaningful results. I was hoping that no one would bother reporting these, butyou had to go and take the bait.
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Do I have to go over this again?
I think it might have gotten lost wandering around the back .04.
… Just can’t resist! (chomp arg arf chomp argh arf)
I’ve been a big fan of the Zogby polls for some time now, but only because I’ve found them (anecdoctaly) to be very prodictive.
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Do you have any evidence that they are less predictive than “conventional” polls (which, after all, suffer from many, many criticisms)?
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In other words, hang the methodology; tell us if it works!
I took solace in the Zogby stuff, which generally had Kerry doing significantly better than other polls. And we all know how that turned out.
…and when expectations are low enough, we’ll all suddenly start ANSWERING our telephones and fool pollsters, and Healey’s numbers will magically crash through the roof – I think around Halloween would be nice….
All I can say is that if the poll doesn’t indicate that it is a sample of likely voters, I don’t have much faith in it.
The problem is that they are a little too likely. The sample population in ZI polls is people who went to the Zogby website and told him they want to be polled. If they’re willing to do that, IMHO, they’re going to be willing to vote. Of course, if they’ve volunteered to be polled by Zogby, they’re likely living in a different world as the rest of the population (politically aware Internet users who like taking polls).
I have a friend (actually a spouse) who remains unenrolled so as to vote for the weakest Dem in the field. I think in 2004, it was Kucinich. For 2002 Governor, Reich.
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Some of us answer polls that way, too. Until the BIG poll, held every two eyars in November.
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IMHO, polls are overused by Dems to determine how to govern. Just look how much they did for Clinton and Gore!