While Congress marches in lockstep with our administration’s “Give War A Chance” logic, let’s just do a round-up of opinion:
Terrorism expert Jessica Stern of the Kennedy School says it feeds the fad of jihad:
Those who attack others, even in self-defense, must be prepared for the collateral damage that inevitably ensues. That damage is measured, not just in childrens’ lives, but also in damaged souls, on all sides of the conflict. But today, we must calculate a new form of collateral damage, which is the way that cynical terrorists capitalize on military mistakes. And whatever we learn about what really happened at Qana or at Haditha or at Abu Ghraib, there is little doubt that the terrorists will benefit.
And here’s the Globe’s institutional/anonymous op-ed:
srael’s gamble has not worked, and the Bush administration can best prove its friendship for Israel by insisting that it now agree to a cease-fire. The additional time that Israel wants to attack Hezbollah further could yield more Qanas and, worse, lead to an escalation in violence in the region.
Here’s Paul Krugman in the NYT yesterday:
For Americans who care deeply about Israel, one of the truly nightmarish things about the war in Lebanon has been watching Israel repeat the same mistakes the United States made in Iraq. Itâs as if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been possessed by the deranged spirit of Donald Rumsfeld.
… Israel has the right to protect itself. If all-out war with Hezbollah becomes impossible to avoid, so be it. But bombing Lebanon isnât making Israel more secure.
Here’s Ricken Patel at TPMCafe:
I just got off the phone with some political folks in Israel, including a former advisor to the Prime Minister, and I thought you might find their take on the current crisis interesting. Basically they claim the Israeli leadership feels like theyâve dug themselves into a terrible mess and would be glad for a face-saving way out.
Juan Cole lauds one courageous politician:
Senator Chuck Hagel, a Republican from Nebraska, broke with Bush on Monday and called for an immediate ceasefire. He intimated that Bush was jeopardizing the US relationship with friendly Muslim governments by trying to out-Likud the Likud (my phrase). He also called for the US to talk to Syria and Iran.
What does our MA congressional delegation think of that? Anyone? Anyone?
From Liberal Oasis, SF Chronicle says Israel did exactly what Hezbollah wanted them to do:
Hezbollah appears to have made a calculated decision to capture Israel’s soldiers 18 days ago.
In the weeks beforehand, in the aftermath of Syria’s withdrawal of troops from Lebanon, Beirut’s government was considering ways to implement United Nations resolution 1559, the 2004 mandate that called on all Lebanese militias to “disband and disarm,” [Hilal] Khashan[, an expert on Hezbollah who teaches political studies at American University of Beirut,] said.
He also said that Beirut’s leaders were negotiating with Syria about the status of Shebaa Farms, the disputed border region that Israel still occupies. Hezbollah says it needs its weapons to fight for this border area.
Were Shebaa Farms to revert to official Lebanese control, Hezbollah would lose a big reason for its existence, Khashan says.
“The Lebanese government, which Hezbollah sees as an American lackey, was very serious about the implementation of the resolution, and seeing that Hezbollah became a part of the Lebanon’s mainstream political process,” Khashan said. “Nasrallah knew that. He knew that the Lebanese government was determined to place Shebaa Farms in Lebanese territory. Israel has always said they were willing to pull out of Shebaa Farms if they got proof they belonged to Lebanon.
“Hezbollah did not want to see Israel withdraw from Shebaa Farms. So they pre-empted and created a huge problem for the entire country (of Lebanon)…”
And as I said earlier, the panelists on ABC’s This Week on Sunday were utterly baffled by Israel’s (and clearly the US’s) strategy.
Anyone want more of this? It’s easy to find — much easier than finding a politician who’s actually listening to folks who are supposed to know what they’re talking about.
Israel is an independent democratic country. They get a lot of money from us — so does Egypt and so do several other countries — but ultimately they call their own shots. Is your point that we should suspend aid to them in protest, or is this just abstract second-guessing of another country?
wrote a couple weeks back (or was it last week) that the US gave the green light for Israel’s overreaction (and it is one). In other words, they’re doing this because we said it was OK.
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Fact is, Israel has negotiated the release of prisoners in similar cases of kidnapping of Israeli citizens. Why did they suddenly abandon this? Big Brother said it was OK – nay, some think actually encouraged this. (Excuse for Syria/Iran rhetoric ramp-up, doncha know?)
I was considering posting this yesterday, after listening to an oh-so-sophisticated commentator on NPR shake his finger in consternation at Israel’s “miscalculation”.
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I decided then, in the car, that I was done equivocating – I was with Israel in its fight against Hezbollah.
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And believe me, I’m not a Zionist – by a long shot. But all this talk of “Israel playing into Hezbollah’s hand” is disgusting. It takes the morality out of it and makes it into a chess match. But the moral element is there, and people need to see it. The blood of each of those Lebanese casualties is on Hezbollah’s hands. They target civilians, they hide among civilians, they instigate civilian casualties offensively and defensively. Anytime there is a civilian casualty on either side, Hezbollah gains. And it is no accident; it is their chosen tactic.
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Israel does not resemble America in Iraq, where we are waging warfare not for our own security, but for spreading “democracy.” If the world looks to our argument for invasion of Iraq in order to criticize us, then let the world similarly look to Israel’s reasons for invasion and find them as concrete and sufficient as imaginable.
I agree with you. It is far too facile to say that Lebanon is Israel’s Iraq. The reasons for Israel’s attack on Hezbollah are real; the reasons for our attack on Iraq were, in large part, imaginary. Big, big difference.
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As to the discussion of tactics, it’s important that Israel do this right, in the sense of weakening Hezbollah militarily without strengthening them in other ways, and obviously civilian deaths must be avoided to the extent possible. No doubt they’ve made mistakes – God knows I, and I’d wager any of us, would if we were in Ehud Olmert’s shoes – and everyone including Israel agrees that hitting the UN mission and the ghastly deaths of 30 children the other day were awful mistakes.
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Chris Lydon had an interesting show the other day talking with Israelis about what’s happening. Worth a listen – there’s definitely disagreement within Israel on strategy, but there seemed to be close to universal agreement that the situation with Hezbollah was intolerable and something had to be done.
Also, Let’s not forget that Israel pulled out of Lebanon previously; They listened to the U.N., showed restraint, and believed the promises that an international force would protect them and disarm these thugs. No such thing happened, and Israel cannot afford to believe the international community any more.
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The saddest part of all of this is we haven’t heard anything about the kidnapped soldiers; I can only hope they’re safe and rescued soon.
“I decided then, in the car, that I was done equivocating – I was with Israel in its fight against Hezbollah.”
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Well gosh, there’s a bold position. Congrats. Do you really think that’s the question being raised here? Were the kids in Qana part of that fight?
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The fact is that Israel didn’t need to bomb Lebanon wholesale. It might have gone like this: Hezbollah bombs Israel to draw it into war; Israel bombs the crap out of Hezbollah where it’s concentrated in southern Lebanon (Israel has very good spy satellites), leaving Beirut alone; then call for cease-fire; Israel offers military help to Lebanese government, strengthening hand of moderates — perhaps including offer of withdrawal from Shebaa Farms; asks for condemnation of (Shiite) Hezbollah from (Sunni) Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. US engages Syria and Iran, putting pressure to withhold help from Hezbollah.
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Of course, none of that happened, and since we don’t engage Syria and Iran, we have no sway over them at all. They do what they like. Foolish, foolish policy.
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Now, I’m not an expert on this stuff — I’m just another schlub calling it like I see it. So it would be easy to tear any of this apart. But I would suggest that there’s a growing expert consensus that it didn’t need to happen this way.
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BTW, check out Liberal Oasis for more on the Shebaa Farms thing, which is the underreported trigger for all this.
From today’s NYT op-ed page (by Nancy Soderberg, “from 1997 to 2001, a United States ambassador to the United Nations, where she negotiated the Security Councils endorsement of Israels withdrawal from Lebanon”):
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Information is part of this war. Be very careful about what you read, and what you believe.
Well, the scholar in the SF Chronicle says that Hezbollah didn’t want Israel to pull out because they wanted the fight. I’m not sure that’s changed by this doubtless fascinating twist.
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Says Bill:
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So the question remains: If Hezbollah wants war which makes inflames Arab/Muslim sentiment, and Israel wants lasting peace and security, how best to do that? Maybe giving them what they want isn’t the right strategy.
And to take over the rest of Lebanon by military force. They only have 22% of the elected parliament but they have 90% of the military might. There are reports of them executing ‘collaborators’ in southern Lebanon even now.
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Israel called their bluff and went in. It’s been less smooth than most would have expected so far, but international hang-wringing is no substitute for facts on the ground. You might find some parallels to the current situation if you recall operation defensive shield and the purported ‘massacre’ at Jenin.
I think the “hand-wringing” is that actually, “high-level” war is turning out to be even better for Hezbollah, since it’s polarizing the Lebanese and the wider Muslim world. That’s their game, and they’re getting what they want — for now.
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If Israel ever succeeds in obliterating Hezbollah with total war, I’ll shut the hell up. But I don’t think that’s how you defeat terrorists.
Hezbollah doesn’t want anything to happen that diminishes any “justification,” however fanciful, it can concoct for continuing to lob rockets into Israel. Hezbollah would have liked nothing better than for Israel to have refused to withdraw from Lebanon at all.
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Now, apparently, the whole Shebaa Farms thing is a giant myth created by the old (Syrian controlled) government of Lebanon, and by Syria. Let’s put that aside as an obvious diversion. I haven’t read all of Bill’s stuff on this, but if Ms. Soderberg is right – and I’m guessing she knows more about this than Bill does, and quite possibly more than whoever the SF Chron talked to, since she was the one who negotiated the withdrawal in the first place – it’s utterly beside the point.
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What’s left? Nothing. Israel withdrew from Lebanon, like it said it would. Hezbollah’s attacks are entirely without justification, and are designed simply to bring about unending war to further the destruction of Israel. When well-meaning folks like Bill get caught up in something like Shebaa Farms, which appears to be (get ready for it…) a Shebaaleth, it really doesn’t help the discussion.
Granted…my post perhaps left something to be desired in the “oratorical masterpiece” category. I was feeling something very strongly, and a little hesitant to put it all on the net; I cut and/or re-arranged several parts, then finally decided to just hit “post”.
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My point about choosing sides led to my larger point, which is that I place primary responsibily for the casualties in Lebanon on Hezbollah, not Israel. This is important because it directly addresses everything you’ve been saying. The real culprit is the cultural vein in the Middle East that accepts terrorism, even applauds it when it achieves political goals.
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If the people of Lebanon had been screaming at Hezbollah for the last few years to get out of their land and stop bringing them trouble, I’d feel differently. But Charlie, if you walked over into my house, and from there took a shot at Bob walking down the street; if I just watched you do it, and didn’t say a word; and then Bob shot back into my house, missed you, and hit me; who would I have to blame?
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So the statement I’m trying to make is that people in the Middle East – and this directly applies to those in Lebanon – need to renounce terrorists and not accept them within their midst. When they don’t, they bring violence upon themselves.
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I’m not saying the kids in Lebanon brought this on themselves. There will always be innocents in any war, and I can’t really address that or say it’s all justified by some rationale. But by that some token, there’s not a lot the Israeli Command can do about it either. There might or may not have been something those kids’ parents could have done about it, by standing up to Hezbollah and casting them out of their towns; but that ship has sailed.
Don’t forget that the “Israel miscalculated” thing is only this week’s opinion. Last week, it was “Hezbollah miscalculated”. So my point is, Israel has defined clear military objectives and it is working towards them. The chattering class doesn’t and shouldn’t get a vote.
Israel’s ground penetration into Lebanon to root out Hezbollah is with a wink and a nod of approval from all the major actors in the middle East, including the Lebanese government. Israel is the only force in the area that can actually destroy Hezballah. The silent cheer leading from Arabs will continue on one hand while the Zionist political discourse will continue play to the and Arab public.
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The Lebanese government leaders have received quiet assurances from Bush that the infrastructure will be replace and that Israel has no territorial ambitions other than to create a more permanent cease fire zone. Very interesting how it is all playing out.
…instead of ‘Israel Wipes Out 50 Lebanese Women and Children’ – one that reads ‘Hezbollah Rockets Hit Hospital, Kill 200’ or ‘Hezbollah Night Strike Kills 7, wounds 45 in Haifa’.
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Is ANYONE in MSM reporting on this from Israel?
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Yow. Not sayin’ he’s right. Just sayin’.
David, you know I like Jon Keller, and he’s been great to us. But this is just a really bad and ignorant column. The WWII comparisons have just got to stop. They’re pretty damned irrelevant when you’re talking about non-state actors, essentially political parties cum religious sects with bombs, rockets, and death wishes.
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Yeah, that’s the model to use: just nuke ’em. This idea that we oughta just carpet-bomb the whole Middle East to achieve “total victory”, — just like WWII, which as everyone knows was a really great time, just like the movies — is nuts. Nuts. Keller should know better.