I was surprised this item in yesterdays Globe was not posted here or generated any interest. (If I missed it all–sorry.) But Sec. of State Bill Galvin is predicting a low turnout for the Dem primary. About 620,000, compared to about 750,000 four years ago.
Say what you want about Galvin’s overall performance as Sec of State–but the guy knows how to predict turnout.
Even though a lot can happen between now and Primary Day–this low turnout bodes very very well for Deval. As has been pointed out on this site, polling consistently shows that Gabrieli pulls from “independents” and less likely voters. With a low turnout, Gabrieli voters won’t be showing up at the polls. Whereas Deval’s support comes from the Liberal base, who will vote come hell or high water.
Also, Patrick does have a real field operation and they will get out more voters than polls will be able to track. Sure Gabrieli can buy a GOTV program and probably will, but at best, he’ll only be able to match Patrick’s field. (And before Patrick folks jump down my throat–I don’t think a paid Gabs GOTV will come close to matching what Patrick has invested in over the last year.)
So there you have it from someone that will be voting for Chris Gabrieli. Nothing is set in stone and anything can and probably will happen between now and Primary Day.
But for now, it’s Deval’s to lose.
Some people disagree.
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I have no idea what’s true. I do know that had Galvin said that an asteroid were predicted to smash into Earth the eve of the primary, we’d have people on this site saying how that’s good news for Deval.
The first link is about the importance of GOTV and how well Deval’s is. I agree. The second link is about how the “internals” of the poll show Deval’s strong favorabilities and that not everyone knows him and once they do, even more people will like him. I don’t disagree with that.
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Maybe some folks would advocate thar Galvin predicting an asteriod smashing into Earth would be good for Deval. But I ain’t one of them. I’m not a Deval supporter, I’ve been consistently critical of his candidacy for the last year. I will be casting my voter for Chris Gabrieli in the primary, just as I did at the convention and I was one of the 500 delegates that signed the petition to get Chris’ name before the convention.
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I’m just calling this one as I see it and I’m not sure what your intention of the links were?
Sorry if I was unclear — I realize that you’re supporting Gabrieli, and I appreciate that this is analysis rather than spin.
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Frankly, and I’d love to be corrected on this, I’ve never seen consistent, rigorous research that links turnout figures to success for candidates who are moderate/extreme or insider/insurgent. I linked to those articles to show that exists even in this race. As for recent examples, I guess that Lamont benefitted from the high turnout, but I”d want a comparative trend before going further than that.
nice to see someone on BMG put forth a reasonable analysis – anything – that does not favor his preferred candidate.
Galvin may well be correct, but it is also likely true that he prefers a low turnout race versus Bonifaz. As someone who is leaning to Bonifaz, I will say here that Galvin should win anyway, but high turnout is riskier for him. Low turnout typically favors insiders with “institutional support”, candidates with great GOTV/better organizations, and/or more concentrated support from party activists & highly passionate voters. High turnout often introduces more independents, new voters, those clasisfied as less likely voters, and angry voters to the process. They often vote for perceived outsiders, moderates, anti-establishemnt, and/or can sometimes also have a “throw the bums” out mindset – though not necessarily all of the above.
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I am not predicitng high turnout, but I think we will see similar turnout to last time – defined here as +/- 50,000 of 750K, not the low to mid 600K Galvin is predicting. Interest will increase after Labor Day, people return from vacation/long weekend, and the kids are back in school. One interesting statistic that I have seen in a few polls is that interest is high in this race. That might translate to better turnout than Galvin has indicated to date.
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If it is very low turnout, it becomes a turn out your vote game. That’s probably Reilly’s best chance to win. I think Deval is well positioned in this type of race too. Gabrieli will need support from a broader spectrum to win. He rates very well with moderate to conservative dems and independents. Perhaps luckily for him, independents do not have much reason to pull a republican ballot this primary season if they vote. Last time Rappaport and Healey were involved in what was seen as a close race and Romney was working very hard to get Independents to vote for Healey to offset Rappaport’s support on the right. There is no such dynamic this time around.
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So to recap, my guess is that…
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Low Turnout – Good for Deval and Reilly, more challenging for Gabrieli
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Roughly same as last time – Close between Gabrieli and Patrick; more challenging for Reilly, but still has chance
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High Turnout – Good for Gabrieli, more challenging for Deval, Reilly likely in big trouble.
on WBUR this morning. Frank had it first!
…you mean some people get paid for this?
Frank, I think your analysis is generally correct: low turnout better for Patrick, worse for Gabrieli, except it omits the third candidate who is running strongly in the polls. The Reilly campaign will be drawing upon the strength of their strong local support, particularly among the mayors, which will also be a plus if the low turnout prediction is correct.
Those senior citizens in the urban areas of Quincy, Lynn, the nieghborhoods of Boston, Fall River ect will be voting and they are Reily voters. But Reilly really doesn’t have a field program and can’t afford to buy one.
MANY unenrolleds down my way will be pulling GOP ballots for the THREE primary races there.
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Deval’s strength at the Dem caucuses on Cape may not help him at the end of the day.
Is Deval counting votes before they are hatched? I think he and his famous grass roots team know where their votes are, and they don’t seem to be down there in your neck of the woods. The latest UNH poll results (including leaners) for the Cape and Islands was at Reilly:45%/Gabrieli:20%/Patrick:17%. I know my poll math ain’t great, but I’d guess a low turnout of people pulling the DEM ballot in them parts is good for Mr. Patrick.
Local Dems of my acquaintance all rave about how Deval’s the greatest thing since sliced bread!
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But, given the overall AGE of Barnstable county voters, it’s not a big surprise that Reilly would be popular.
Since we’re all using ’em these days. I have three colleagues I haven’t seen since June. All three are educated, middle-class liberals (2 Dems, 1 unenrolled). Each can give you an excellent case why Bush is a disaster, and for that matter why Romney is, too.
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None of them have a preference in the primary, or even much interest in it. If these folks are disengaged, I can’t imagine the maybe-I’ll-vote-or-maybe-not crowd is faring any better.
Personally, I think Galvin wants a low voter turnout. He knows he has machine support and that will drive a certain amount of people to the polls. Above and beyond a certain voter turnout and I think his chances of winning – while still good – are decreased.
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Galvin really left a sour taste in my mouth after reading that article. Maybe instead of talking about how voter turnout is going to be low, he should get off his ass and actually encourage people to vote. You know, like going to debates and stuff. Read my blog for more on these thoughts, it irks me to no end.