Personal contact with candidate-
We had Latin Fest this past weekend. 40k average attendance. I saw five Gabby supporters. Eating lunch. The only attempt to influence or inform voters was to continually try to sneak those glossy Gabrieli cards onto our literature table. Deval had signs, 30-40 supporters and 20-30 more from Neighbor to Neighbor, literature in Spanish, English, and Portuguese, voter registrations and primary awareness. Later, he came and spoke to the crowd on hand in English and Spanish. He was the only gov. candidate who came. Obviously I was there as a DP supporter, but I would have been there either way.
Personal contact with supporters-
DP supporters have canvassed my neighborhood twice talking to people personally. Gabby? Well, yesterday night I walked out of my apartment to find a glossy card on my doorstep. No one knocked or rang any doorbells, I would have known if they did. Also, there’s nine people living in five apartments in my building. There was only one card left. I walked up my street later, and saw the same thing building after building. See candidate contact for the only other time I have seen CG people in my city. Reilly? Totally invisible. No knocks, no lit on the doorstep. Never seen his people except for my occasional run-in with my Senator, Harriette Chandler.
TV-
Patrick? I’ve seen both commercials a few times. About what I would expect for the buy and the limited time it’s been going. Gabby? EVERYWHERE. Hands down, Gabrieli is the candidate I have seen the most. No surprise here. Reilly? Quite a bit, although not Gabby level.
Phone
I only have a cell and I don’t list my number on my voter reg, so I’ve gotten no candidate calls.
Mailing-
Patrick? Supporter mail. Doesn’t really count. Gabby? Lots and lots. Reilly? Nothing. Not one single mailing.
Obviously your milage may vary, but…My point? Which of these techniques will be most effective at actually getting people to VOTE? I’ve rated mine roughly by how I listed them in this post. What do you think?
GOTV is important, but it’s not everything. One candidate could have 200,000 potential votes, get 95% of them to the polls, and still get crushed by a candidate who has 400,000 voters and only gets 70% to actually vote.
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I’ve been wondering, what boost does Patrick get from his GOTV advantage over, say, an accurate eve-of-election poll? Two percentage points (significant)? Five (enormous and probably a winner)? Anything more sounds unrealistic.
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I wish Patrick supporters wouldn’t use anecdotal evidence to imply that the other candidates have no ground campaign. Deval’s is the biggest and most vocal, maybe by far. We get it. Why insist that the other candidates have zero? I’ve been at big public events where Gabrieli supporters well outnumbered and out-outreached the Patrick contingent, and where Chris showed and Deval didn’t. Big deal. We went to that particular event and the Deval folks didn’t. And the Gabrieli campaign has localized GOTV strategies, just as Reilly and Patrick do.
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And you can’t claim Deval has more personal contact with voters than Chris. Both have full schedules, but a portion of Deval’s is taken up by fundraisers. So if anything more uncommitted voters meet Chris than Deval.
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Most of the events where Deval has a huge presence that I read about here at BMG seem to occur in places where he has lots of support. I don’t assume that’s all there is; I’m sure he has volunteers all over the state. But it’s to the advantage of a GOTV-based campaign to concentrate its efforts. It’ll be much easier for Deval to add 300 votes in Newton by GOTV than to get them piecemeal from towns across Central and Southeastern Mass.
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Chris constantly goes to places where there are fresh votes to be won, not just adoring crowds to be pleased. At every event I’ve been to he takes tough questions from skeptical voters and answers them sincerely. I think Deval’s votes will be heavily concentrated in certain areas, while Chris’s will come from across the state in a more even spread. I think that is likely to make for a better statewide consensus, both in the general election and in being an effective governor.
I don’t honestly recall who posted it, but I thought it made some valid points which were critical of my post, and I wanted to respond to them. Now it’s gone…
OK, sorry all. Not sure what happened there, but it is definitely displaying the comment for me again and I feel like a jackass.
We’re gonna have a donkey in the corner office fer shur this year, eh?
I want to actually respond to your points.
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GOTV isn’t everything in every election. Definitely, if you have a longshot candidate who turns out every supporter vs. a huge frontrunner who only turns out half, your frontrunner wins by a mile. However, that’s not the race we have at hand. I think we will wind up pretty close with the actual number of those who support Deval and Gabrieli, hell, maybe even Reilly. So the question becomes…How many of those making a decision in polls not requiring the effort to go to the booth will actually follow through when it counts?
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Regarding your point about selective evidence, I’ll agree that what I said was phrased poorly and perhaps gave this impression. I was touching up the post in a hurry before leaving the house. I should’ve made clearer that this is one man’s experience in his neighborhood. But it is my real experience, honest. Every encounter or non-encounter I described is happening here in Worcester. I’d love to see Gabs here as he is my strong 2nd choice in the race. I haven’t seen him here since the convention, though.
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If you think that Deval or his supporters are preaching to the choir here, you’re very much mistaken. Worcester is the land of Ye Olde True Blue Dem. The college students are an exception, but they rarely sober up in time to vote anyway…I disagree with the contention that Deval is preaching to the converted over and over. I think Deval has spoken a lot to those that no other candidate gives a shit about. Whether they will vote or not we will have to see on the 19th.
I agree Deval’s GOTV, if it’s all it’s cracked up to be, will make a difference, and I think we’re asking the same question: how much of a difference? If the race is even, then yes, it could make all the difference. If he’s down five points or more, it’ll have a lot of work to do. Anyone know of any data from past races about how strong GOTV campaigns have outperformed their late poll #s?
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I don’t question your own experience. I don’t know about the city of Worcester, but I know Chris has spent plenty of time in Central Mass and has considerable support across the region.
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I hate to nitpick your wording since I’ve been, um, colorful myself recently, but the phrase “those that no other candidate gives a shit about” makes a preposterous claim. Candidates all make special appeals to groups of voters more likely to respond to their particular message, but Gabrieli, certainly, is leaving no stone unturned.
I’m not aware of any data about the margin of votes a GOOD GOTV program will bring you (I emphasis GOOD, because I’ve been part of, or watched closely many field efforts and I’ve only seen a few good ones), but the mythical rule of thumb is 3 points. So if media and message can get things to 48 points, the field can kick a field goal for 3 and win the game. (And this is a 3 way
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I think Deval has a field that can deliver 3 points on primary day and if the turnout is low–maybe 4 points. And this is a 3 way primary which should be very close–and if 34% wins the primary, a 3 point boost from the field is 10% of your votes. That’s a big story if they pull it off.
The rule of thumb you’re referring to sounds like something from presidential campaigns. As you well know, if we were talking about a special election for state representative in January, GOTV would account for more than 90% of the vote. Now, this election for governor is much closer to a presidential election than to a state rep special, of course, but that doesn’t mean we should assume it’s all the way at that end of the continuum! Especially since it’s a primary. Another rule of thumb: the lower the overall turnout, the higher the importance of GOTV.
But rule of thumbs are just that–a rule of thumb.