What the heck, there’s no money at stake here …
I say Lamont romps: 56%-44%. Not close. Early night for all. Joe says, “Oh yeah? You and what party?” before 11:30pm, starts his Zell-Miller-on-methadone act immediately. The death spiral of a once-noble public career continues.
Any other guesses?
Update: AP results are here. This seems to be the best source.
Taegan sez results will be here:
Official results. Update: Wow, that server is getting rocked. Good luck on that one.
Where are all those counties, anyway? Click through for demographic data from the US Census. Very cool.
AP’s results. Just an AP wire finder, really.
Should be fun! Martinis all around, one way or the other.
UPDATE: Ball is rolling! Lamont jumps out to an early 426-281 lead. (Margin of error approximately 6000% — must be a Zogby.)
8:43pm: I swear I’m not liveblogging this… MyDD and Kos are also hosed. This thing is big.
But he won’t be Zell Miller on methadone, he’ll be ZM on Zoloft. It’s a more Republican drug….
… it’s a ghetto drug.
Hey Charley –
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What will Chris Dodd, who has been on the fence about IndyJoementum, do at midnight?
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Does he call Joe and say:
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“Listen, pal, if you run as an Independent, I will publicly support Lamont, but I won’t put much energy behind it.”
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or
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“Joe, do NOT run as an independent. I will do everything to support Lamont. You’re a good guy. You lost. You’ll have more fun anyway when Bush calls to offer you the Secretary of Defense job. Bow out.”
You think Chris Dodd likes his job? You think he dreams about the Oval Office? He will drop Joe like a rock if he loses. Count on it.
… if/when Lamont takes this thing (and yes I’m very confident), watch the Dems fall all over themselves to get on the right side of the anti-war side — which is most of us, after all.
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Consensus demand from Dems: Rumsfeld’s head.
I don’t know if people are going to buy all that “hacking” nonsense, but the media (except for Olberman) didn’t even question whether or not it could have been something other than hacking. Serves Joe right for getting a 2 bit company to host his websites, whilst only paying $15 bucks a month. Considering the guy raised about 14 million, that’s a disgrace.
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But not everyone reads the blogs and Olberman’s show wasn’t on till the polls closed, so who knows if it will make any impact.
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Regardless, I think Lamont will win. It just depends on how much.
That doesn’t matter. it’s too late for dirty tricks from Joe; and I cannot believe that Lamont’s campaign would do something like that. If it was indeed a DOS attack, the same thing should happen to the perps as happened to the NH 2002 crooks — jail time. But I haven’t heard that’s the case.
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Read this Kos post — it would seem he’s researched it pretty well. I’d love to hear informed confirmation from someone without an obvious axe to grind.
from people asking me if there was any truth to his bullshit story. I’ve been spreading the word that this is the final Joementum attack because he has nothing else. Having lived most of my life in CT and being involved in politics as an activist for most of those years, I can say that Joe has reached his nadir. It’s all over. The last time I attended a Dem event, Joe had donated a copy of his book (whatever the hell it was). Never before had I seen people bid negatively in a silent auction. As far as I know, Joe owes me $100 for being willing to take his book home!
The only good things that can happen now are if Lamont wins and Lieberman concedes with dignity or if Lieberman wins and Lamont makes good on his pledge to support the winner.
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Neither of those things seem likely to happen.
Just curious. I think it’s fascinating — real Greek drama.
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BTW, I’m wrong, it’s a real nail-biter tonight.
I’m in the blogger room at the Four Points Sheraton in Meriden, Lamont headquarters & party venue, surrounded by people from MyLeftNutmeg, Blue State Digital, etc. Ari Fertig just wandered by and asked to say hi to the Blue Mass Group crowd.
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I’ve spent the day in Willimantic and Windham CT, handing out Lamont cards at a polling place, doing visibility under the looming shadows of giant bronze frogs, making walk lists, … left there shortly after 8, got to Meriden at 9.
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MyDD is falling over from the weight of the load, I think, so I can’t post. I did post during my lunch break with some anecdotes from the polling place. If MyDD recovers, you can read that đŸ™‚
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Waiting for more numbers here…
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(here comes Jim Dean)
Great to hear from you! Big shout-out to all the CT bloggers, and our own fertig, who I hope is fertig for a Lamont victory.
My prediction based on a weighted average of the polls through since the start of June (weighted by number, not taking into account the lifetime of accuracy) is Lamont 52.6% and Lieberman 47.4% with a 0.8% standard deviation (about a 1.6% margin of error)
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Right now, with 89.17% reporting, the results are Lamont 51.6% and Lieberman 48.4%
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I’ve been working on making a real quantitative prediction of the Dem Gov primary based off polls, and was looking at this to see what kind of “lifetime” i should give the polls (how long to assume they are accurate for… the lifetime being til they are about a 1/3 reliable) but the flat weighting of earlier and later polls by number of respondents seems really accurate on this race…