A great find from 2002, regarding a Channel 7/Suffolk University poll taken 4 weeks before the general election (today, by the way, is 4 weeks before the primary). Many thanks to ShillelaghLaw for some outstanding digging!
Our poll says you should start calling Shannon O’Brien the frontrunner. Our exclusive 7News-Suffolk survey shows she’s opened up a 12 point lead over Mitt Romney, with 21 percent still undecided. The three other gubernatorial candidates attract slight support. Even our pollster is a bit startled by the Shannon surge:
Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster [sound familiar? –ed.]: “It’s surprising I think to most political observers. But if you look at the categories of voters that we’re looking at, especially party breakdown, she looks real strong.”
And what’s making her strong is a huge gender gap. O’Brien beats Romney by 20 percentage points among women, and leads by 3 points among men likely to vote.
O’Brien also benefits from a favorability gap:
Prof. David Paleologos: “Her favorability continues to climb. His unfavorability continues to climb. More people are liking Shannon O’Brien and less people are liking Mitt Romney.”
If there’s anything Romney can like about our poll, it’s that a majority of voters now believe he will serve a full four-year term, if elected. [does it count if he’s never home? –ed.] And that – by the thinnest margin – more voters expect him, not O’Brien, to be the next governor. [hey, maybe polls are worth something after all! –ed.]
Still, when our pollster sums up the numbers:
Prof. David Paleologos: “Romney’s like the stock market. His numbers keep dropping and he can’t seem to find a bottom.”
And O’Brien: Prof. David Paleologos: “Basically she needs to run out the clock. She has a sizeable lead. She can allow the third party candidates to grow; it doesn’t seem to be coming off of her percentage right now.”
The candidates reactions:
Shannon O’Brien, (D) Gubernatorial candidate: “I think the message I’ve been putting out there has been getting through to the voters.”
Mitt Romney, (R) Gubernatorial candidate: “Just a couple of days ago, there were polls saying we’re even in the polls. The polls are bouncing all over the place. [again, sound familiar? –ed.] I don’t manage a campaign based on polls.”
Maybe he should [or not –ed.] – because what our poll really says is that the Romney campaign is collapsing, and that, to win, he must change his strategy. He’s falling behind everywhere: he needs more men, women, Democrats and Independents. And with time so short, that’s a very long list…maybe too long.
Here’s the same pollster today:
Chris Gabrieli is clearly the person to beat in both the primary and the final election, said David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. His widespread strength cuts across all demographics including gender, party, age, and geography. …
With third party candidates drawing away votes in this race, 45% becomes the new magic number to win the final election, said Paleologos. Today, Chris Gabrieli already has 46% and thats not counting any of the 20% who are undecided.
Sounds to me like overconfidence in anyone – candidates, pundits, or pollsters – is a dangerous thing.
Here’s a follow-up, from two weeks later:
The article discusses how O’Brien got distracted by the equal marriage issue while Romney kept hammering on the economy, which is presumably what most people cared about, having just witnessed a severe economic slide.
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The lesson here is that a lot can change in a short time, as voters begin to focus on the election. The moral of the story (at least for me) is to just keep on doin’ what I’m doin’, which is to spread the word about my candidate and sign people up to vote for him.
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Here’s more evidence of the fickleness of voters (or is it a reflection on the difficulty of polling? — probably both!). Dateline August 29, 2002:
Déjà vu all over again?
Polls are a dangerous thing =p
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That’s why I’ve routinely been saying that the Suffolk poll is an anomoly until there’s repeats of the same information, especially since SUSA came out with one on the same day that shows almost exactly what we’ve been seeing all summer.
Let’s review some of these statements:
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Déjà vu all over again?
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LOL (0.00 / 0)
Polls are a dangerous thing =p
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Sounds to me like overconfidence in anyone – candidates, pundits, or pollsters – is a dangerous thing.
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Funny, I wasn’t hearing the same warnings, misgivings or distrust of polls when Deval was in the lead.
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Polls are always a snap shot in time. I think that the Suffolk poll 4 weeks out from the general election was correct. Shannon did have the lead. Shannon was coming off the primary bounce and Romney had just started his first round of TV ads which were not very good and highly criticized. Not to mention that Shannon did very well (and Romney not so well) in the first debate. The Suffolk University poll right before the 2002 general election was correct and showed Romey ahead by 4 points. Historically, the Suffolk University poll has been accurate.
I’m sure Governor O’Brien agrees with you.
have to admit that it’s odd that two polls, taken at almost exactly the same time and released on the same day, and polling supposedly the same group of voters, differ by 10% for both Patrick (34 SUSA vs. 24 Suff) and Reilly (30 SUSA vs. 20 Suff). Interesting that the numbers for Gabrieli are within 2%, but the other two are so different. Talk all you want about differences in methodology, it’s just weird.
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That’s the point of my post.
or use the word “Kool-Aid” – yes, I know you didn’t, but you came close – keep in mind most of us, when we post on polls, ALWAYS use the disclaimer that it’s too early and polls aren’t the be-all and end-all.
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But you CAN talk about trends…the Suffolk poll is still, as of right now, an anomoly. It could turn out their methodolgy is flawed, or else their methodology is more accurate, but you can’t call this a trend even within their own poll, nevermind across polls.
Remember, in 2002, it was the “progressive” vote that split among Reich, Birmingham and Tolman (not that their cumulative votes were all progressive voters). This year, that bloc is generally united behind Patrick (with exceptions, of course) and Reilly/Gabrieli fighting for the moderate/conservative vote.
John Slattery had next to no money for media, the competition is a little more balanced in terms of finance this time, i.e. Patrick still leads in the Channel 4 poll pre-media buy.
The liberal candidate always gets a bounce right after the convention because 85% of the other Dem voters who are more moderate only start to pay attention 4 weeks prior to the primary election . Hence,what we have is Patrick startng to dissipate, Reilly creeping up two points and Gab’s money starting to reach a point of saturation. No surprises here!