Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Lieberman takes the lead

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(Reuters) – U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman, a three-term Democrat now running as an independent candidate, leads the man who beat him in last week’s primary vote by 12 points in a three-way race, a poll released on Thursday shows.

Lieberman 53

Lamont 41

Schlesinger 4

A week ago, Rasmussen had 40-40-13.  Looks like Schlesinger’s would be supporters got Karl Rove’s message.

Thoughts? 

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  1. that was the pre-election Rasumussen, the post election was 46-41-6 Lieberman. The last Quinnipiac was at 51-27-9 Lieberman. so +14 for Lamont, and +2 for Lieberman, -5 for Schlesinger, and only 2% with over 10 weeks til election day

  2. and concentrate on south and midwest.

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    Schlesinger starves and gets nowhere but bounces maybe as high as 9-10% with 8 of the 9-10 coming from Lieberman’s 53%. 

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    Lieberman decides:
    – that he should criticize the war plan and the Bush administration; remind everyone that he is a multi-term senator;
    – remind everyone that a rabid electorate on the left edge of the party took control of the primary;
    – criticize the Republican too and their fringe element all the while reminding CT that it’s a moderate state (it is).
    – muse quietly why a rich guy with some talking points and a bag of zen should be a senator.

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    Money bet: Lieberman wins with 44% to Lamont’s 41%.

    • While Jews make up roughly 6 percent of the electorate in Connecticut, they are overwhelmingly Democratic and tend to vote at a disproportionably high rate, according to the National Jewish Democratic Council.

      • Well, about 40-45% of Jews questioned in an exit poll voted for Lamont.

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        Jews aren’t the target group in this election…it’s the Democrats that are currently willing to vote for the de facto Republican candidate.

  3. … it’s the slope. Cutting and pasting from MyDD, the numbers in parentheses are from July 13-18:

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    Lieberman: 49 (51)
    Lamont: 38 (27)
    Schlesinger: 4 (9)

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    So, Ned’s gained 11 points in the last month. Also, the Senate Republicans are rallying around Joe … which is not exactly a good thing for him, I’d have to imagine. Does he want to be even more associated with Bush?

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    I’d think that he’d have to keep quite a few Dem and independent votes to take it, which is certainly possible. I expect an extremely close race … but watch that slope.

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