Items of interest today:
- As foreshadowed by the Sages of Beverly, Deval Patrick shatters the single-month fundraising record, previously held by Mitt Romney; Patrick’s camp says they’ve raised about $550k in August. Patrick heard to say — “Who’s gonna beat me? You and what venture capital firm?” Naw — made that up. Still, damn impressive.
- Lisa Wangsness, working overtime, files another article asking “Who are the undecided voters?”
So who are the undecideds? The poll indicated that undecided voters are more likely to be women, more likely to live in Southern or Western Massachusetts, and more likely to describe themselves as moderates. They are also less likely to be interested in the primary, and less likely to vote.
This brings up something I’ve been pondering … in polling, all percentage points are not equal. This is what pollsters try to get at in assessing “likely voters” and in trying to measure degree of committment to a candidate. I have to agree with Publius in concluding from the Globe/UNH poll that there are good signs in the tea leaves for Patrick:
- very good favorable/unfavorable numbers
- high voter loyalty,
- he’s barely been on TV a week
- 25% of primary voters still haven’t heard of the guy.
In other words, it would seem he’s got the most upside, and the means to realize it. Prove me wrong!
- Did you know Deval got baked as a kid?
- Jim Rappaport wonders why he hasn’t heard of the two challengers for Diane Wilkerson’s seat. I don’t think Sonia or Samiyah are really aiming for the Jim Rappaport vote in that district, but whatever.
- Bill Clinton will stop traffic for Victory ’06 — a pot of money the MassDems are collecting to avoid a post-9/19 hangover. Peter Porcupine will post a blistering riposte to my Cheney complainin’..
- Update: sco wonders Why can’t we be more like New Jersey when it comes to auto insurance? And I don’t have a good answer. If anything, there are even more maniacs on the road there. I’m not sure exactly what good it does to be unlike almost every other state in the union.
I think DP makes a good impression – leaderish.
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However, another reasonable spin is that among the 35% of voters who’ve “come onto the market” in the last 3 months (mostly undecideds, a few leaving Reilly), 26% have gone to Gabs and 9% to DP. Most came from the undecided camp.
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That’s a 3-to-1 Gabs advantage. Obviously if he continues to pull undecideds at that rate, he wins. In fairness to DP, many reasons to believe that Gabs won’t pull undecideds at that rate….and that DP in a solid position to finish strong.
I guess I would say that those coming late to the race are likely the people who are most swayed by advertising. Patrick has just gotten into that game. No, he won’t compete ad-for-ad vs. Gabrieli, but he’ll spend enough to be known to that audience.
September 19th might be a proxy vote for Liberalism in Massachusetts, with a re-test in November.
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Mr. Patrick’s the most Liberal. Any doubters?
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And, while I’ve thought the Liberal ideology widely destined to be the minority politics, Massachusetts has tried to buck the trend. Maybe that’s why Mr. Patrick’s Dem opposition seems unwilling or uninterested (for now) in labeling him as the candidate too Liberal for Massachusetts.
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I’ll go on a limb with the opinion that if opposition candidates abandon their lame Evil-Corporate-Employee attacks and instead choose to label Mr. Patrick as a ‘tax and spender’ it will stick. I credit Mass that it’s less Liberal than it thinks it is.
Mr. Patrick’s the most Liberal. Any doubters?
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I’m a doubter. I’m not claiming you’re wrong, but I’m not so sure you’re right either. Furthermore, I have no idea how to measure well.
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Gabs and DP are similar on a number of issues; often one must really look at the details to discover differences. So, what makes you so sure that DP is “more liberal” than Gabs?
Patrick is anti. Which is the Liberal position?
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Reilly is anti Cape Wind, Patrick is pro. Again, which is the Liberal position?
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IMHO, there are more tonal differences and variations in personal qualities among the three Dem candidates than there are issue or ideological differences. If they were all, say, members of Congress I think they’d have very similar voting records.
Sorry, gary, but this whole thing makes no sense at all. Have you got any unifying principle behind these positions, or do they just “feel” “Liberal” to you?
Liberal = more equality
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Creation of more equality means more centralized government planning for the less fortunate which requires higher central income taxes.
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Left thinking, would I think, oppose casinos because its a regressive revenue source and a liberal government would attempt to protect the citizens from their own vices.
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Universal healthcare is emphasis on the equality thing.
because I don’t know what it means (especially with a capital “L”).
I suppose not a complete laundry list by any means but I view these points as Liberal views, certainly left of middle. It’s my opinion Mr. Patrick’s views are to the left of the opposition candidates:
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-Healthcare for every resident;
-Strong advocate for Affirmative Action;
-Opposed to income tax decrease;
-Increase local aid to Towns from the State;
-Centralized plan for regional economic growth.
I spent too much time in England.
It’s going to be a close race, so you have to love that Deval is really surging in fundraising. To those who question his ability to compete with Kerry Healey in cash, here’s your answer. He CAN and he WILL.
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He’ll have plenty of money to get everyone in this state to know exactly what he’s about and he has the charisma and intelligence to trounce her in any debate. None of her barbs will work against him. He’s going to win the election, so long as he wins the primary.
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The race is very close, but I still say advantage Deval. I’m excited, pumped and ready for action! Deval Patrick will win, he’ll be an exceptional leader for this state and help get Massachusetts on the right track. We’re going to rake in thousands of jobs every month, keep a balanced budget and see true progress here as opposed to stagnation.
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Hope is here. His name is Deval!
…Boston. Suffolk county. Geico would be here tomorrow if they could exclude that area.
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Right now, my town of Orleans pays about 115% of its true rate based upon the number of accidents its citizens are involved in. Chelsea pays about 72%. (It is a myth that cities have high rates because people who don’t know where they are going cause accidents – under our system, your accident follows you home, so if I get into an accident in Boston, it goes on Orleans tab).
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In other words, rural and suburban drivers subsidize the bad loss records of the cities. Since the ed formula, and just about every other formula driven distribution of money in the state follows the same pattern, this is hardly a shock.
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So. If we go to market rates, the already high rates of Boston drivers will jump by about 25%, and those of rural drivers will drop about 10%.
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Think THAT will happen any time soon?
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You want market based rates, all you young drivers in the city? Be careful what you wish for.