I think this is a clear indication of how appealing Gabrieli is to independents and moderates.
Notice how many voters Gabrieli takes from Mihos. A clear sign that the cranky independents gravitate to Gabrieli.
Interestingly, Deval’s lead over Healey has dropped from 20 pts in the last poll to just 10 now.
I truly hope that many of the Dems leaning to Deval or Tom at the moment will consider the implications of these #s. For reasons I’ve gone over in the past, I strongly believe Chris is the best person for the job. But if you think two or three of the candidates are roughly even on the merits, a Democrat with a lead this big over Healey, and the resources to go head to head on equal footing, should carry a lot of weight.
Please share widely!
I too think that Chris gabrieli is the best person for the job. These poll #’s are encouraging as we are now 5 weeks and 3 days from primary day. I also think that your point that Gabrieli can go toe for toe financially against Healey is also a very important point. How many times do Dems have to experience the big primary day bounce only to see that lead quickly vanish while the Democratic campaign goes dark for 2 weeks trying to raise funds to go up against his/her well-financed Republican opponent? I have experienced it too many times. I want the democrats to win this time and Chris Gabrieli can win. I am happy to be supporting a good man like Chris Gabrieli. A hard working and very intelligent man who has a proven record of accomplishment, commitment to worthy causes and the finances to compete.
It seems that the Patrick campaign has started slipping compared to the others. Does anyone else see this as a new trend?
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What do others attribute it to, lack of money to go on the airwaves, or maybe a failure to get traction with the massive field organization?
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Inquiring minds want to know…
The obvious one is lack of air time, but I also think the electability factor (non support for the rollback) is starting to rear it’s ugly head. Especially with Healey ads touting a One billion dollar surplus.
That’s the big, and not surprising, story of this poll.
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Reilly’s ads, like the rest of his campaign, have been pretty unimpressive. Cokegate won’t help.
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Once Patrick is on the air — soon, I hope — his numbers will go up again. Even with no ads he leads Murphy Healey Sherry by double digits.
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But, you say, Chris will always have more money to spend on ads than Deval, and this will give him an advantage both in the primary and the general?
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You’re right. But money is not the only quality we ought to look for in our prospective nominees or governors. In a year with Mihos on the ballot, with a lacklustre Republican candidate, with “the mess on Beacon Hill” (personified by Bulger and Finneran) having receded, and with a bad moon rising for Republicans generally across the land, I’m stickin’ with a candidate who can inspire and lead, and who has been able to build the best grassroots organization Massachusetts has seen in a quarter century.
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Chris would make a fine governor. I believe Deval has the potential to be a better one.
In November, Deval can energize the voters like you wouldn’t believe it and he will have an army of volunteers while Gabrieli will certainly appeal to independents who usually decide outcomes in governor races. I don’t even want to talk about a third candidate – Reilly after his campaign involvement in Killer Coke. Gabrieli obviously has an advantage over Deval in November since Healey using all her money will portray Deval as a candidate of liberal left killing him on issues like taxes. Gabrieli can match her financially and of course being a more mainstream candidate couldnt be portrayed as a scary pro-tax Democrat, especially after he offered a specific plan for a rollback of the income tax.
Chris Gabrieli is climbing in the polls because he is a candidate that appeals to the center (unenrolled) and these days, they are the majority. He is what Tom Reilly wanted to be and what Devall Patrick can never be.
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Reilly has run a disastorous campaign so far and has proven he has zero management abilities. That’s painfully obvious.
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Realisticly, this electorate will not go from ultra conservative Mitt Romney to the liberal Deval Patrick in four short years. If Duvall happens to win the primary due to a low turnout, we will lose in the general election. That will be a devastating blow to the remaining Democrats in this state.
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Enter Chris Gabrieli. He is everything we stand for, opportunities, good paying jobs, advancing medical research and energy alternatives, world wide educational ideas AND he has the resources to win.
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We will not only win the Governor’s seat if Gabrieli prevails in the primary. The Democratic party will win back many of the voters that have switched their party affiliation.
Can folks tell my why they consider Deval liberal relative to Chris being “centrist”? Both favor same sex marriage, are pro-choice, anti death penalty, and pretty much the same on every social issue. That has not yet really come up yet, as Chris has not been in the cross hairs of an attack from the right. On economic issues, they are also quite similar, with perhaps the exception of the tax rollback question. And on that issue, Deval is making the case that you have to pay for it somewhere, either in income tax or local property tax or in cuts to services, and folks I talk to in the middle find that someone is finally talking some sense to them.
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Chris has been on the air for weeks (months) and has only inched up from where he was in June. More interestingly, did anyone notice the July fundraising numbers — “Gabrieli’s report indicates that he took in $1.78 million during the last half of July, but that only $17,575 was in itemized contributions from individuals.” Read as — virtually no individual actually gives to Gabrielli. Deval has over 12,000 contributors (maybe more by now) and about 1/2 of those are active volunteers.
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In other words, the interesting thing about the polls is that Gabrielli has spent millions already and has only move up modestly. Deval has spent little so far on ads and has held his ground. But he has built the stongest field organization anyone has had since Dukakis.
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If you look past the primary, once Deval has the nomination, he will have both the funds and the organization to take on Healey. If you don’t have charisma, if people don’t get excited by you, you don’t win. Ask the past 3 Dem candidates for Governor.
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So talking about who is “liberal” versus “centrist” is silly at this point, when there has been no Republican against you. Talk instead about who is mobilizing people, and the contrast and opportunity for Democrats this fall seems clear.
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Or has Gabrieli changed some position he used to have to mvoe to the center that I missed?
you can bet that he will be redefined as the liberal he is. Patrick has gotten the un electable lefty treatment because of his climb from obscure candidate to front runner. The easiest way to dismiss his candidacy is that it is merely a reflection of the activist base. Patrick is not, in fact, farther left than Gabrielli. My main issue is telling the two apart most of the time, except on the income tax issue. My feeling is that Gabrielli’s numbers are soley due to name recognition. If and when Patrick gets on the air, I would expect Patrick to have a bounce and Gabbs to drop a bit.
I disagree that Chris could be that easily portrayed as a liberal left candidate comparing to Deval. Again, theyre both good and capable people but there are factors that make Gabrieli a better choice for November elections. For the last 2 decades the main issue of gubernatorial elections was taxes. Republican candidates killed Democrats on taxes winning support of the largest political group in Massachusetts independents. After the brutal primaries, Democratic candidates were bruised and cash strapped and couldnt defend themselves from pointed attacks of well-funded Republicans. Democrats were painted as tax-and-spend, too liberal and not to be trusted with prudent fiscal and economic decisions, beholden to special interests, like unions, etc. Republicans also played well the logical reasoning for two party government. This time its not going to be different Republicans will try to scare independents and some Democrats with the same proven message
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I think Deval is a much easier target. He is clearly identified with the left wing of the party (enjoying a strong support there), against a tax rollback, will have little money after the primaries and overall acts and sounds more liberal. Compare to him Chris is not as easily identified with the left, supports the tax rollback, have plenty of money to match Healeys millions (and dont even need to waste time fundraising).
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The name of the game for Republicans is: How can you make a Democrat look scary to unenrolled voters. Kerry Healy could certainly make an easier case with Deval. His 12,000 volunteers wouldnt be able to convert millions of voters or match Republican money machine. That is why Gabrieli will be a stronger candidate comes November.
I’m tired of hearing people tell me who I should vote for based on how electable they are. Wasn’t that the rationale behind Kerry in 2004? Where’d that get us? I don’t know what would have happened if Dean or Edwards had won the nomination, but frankly I think they wouldn’t have been quite so easy for Bush to pick apart.
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Kerry positioned himself as the candidate who would appeal to everyone, and that prevented him from taking any real positions and killed him in the general.
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And now I’m hearing the same arguments again, except this time its for Gabrieli – another candidate who’s good on most of the issues and would probably do a fine job, but who’s not the candidate who’s actually inspiring me to vote for him.
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I’m going to vote for the candidate who I want to see in the corner office, and I hope everyone else does the same.
Oh please, Gabrieli is certainly a progressive democrat but Gabrieli is absolutely more moderate and therefore, in my opinion, more electable than Patrick. First, there is the tax issue that you mention. Patrick thinks there should be no income tax rate reduction despite the fact that the voters overwhelmingly voted to reduce the rate back to 5.0%. On the hand, Gabrieli wants to responsibly phase-in the reduction to 5.0% without starving the state government. See Scott Lehigh’s 8-8-06 piece Gabrieli’s balanced blueprint for income tax cut.
More striking, are their difference on the illegal immigration problem. Patrick thinks illegal immigrants should be given driver’s licenses and public housing. In fact, Patrick said at the housing debate that no preference should be given to American citizens over illegal immigrants on public housing lists. Really? Chris Gabrieli believes that there is a distinction between legal and illegal immigrants. Chris is the son of legal immigrants who eventually became US citizens. Consequently, his feelings on this subject are genuine and deeply held. Gabrieli is moving in the polls because people like him. Yes, his TV and radio commercials have helped increase his name recognition. But also, his grass roots have worked hard canvassing areas with literature, doing visibilities and phone banking. These field activities plus Gabrieli’s mainstream views have made his candidacy very attracttive to the electorate. Don’t forget, Chris received the hightest # of votes amongst all democatic candidates in the 2002 Democratic Primary. People are just being reminded why they liked him so much.
Gabrieli is moving up in every poll. Deval is slipping and despite what you say, he has not held his ground. Deval has been begging for money for the past 18 months. No wonder he raised more.
Gabrieli is spending a lot of his own money and concentrating on the issues instead.
the first of his or any gub candidate’s ads I’d seen (don’t watch much TV) … and with the sound off, it just struck me that he looked like a big dork. I asked the folks I was with (my sister, who is a non-political Mass resident, and her out-of-state friend), and they agreed he looked like a big dork.
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I don’t know what Kerry Healey looks like or what image she conveys on TV, but I’m not too confident Gabs has what it takes in the photogenic department.
Many who have seen the candidates in person has had a similar reaction, with Deval grabbing many as charismatic, appealing, and likeable. And a lot of those who react this way are hardly stereotypical “liberals”. His corporate credentials add to this cross appeal. The tax pitch is repeatedly aimed at local property tax relief as needing to happen before a rollback, so he has a strong answer on taxes.
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But my main point has been how distressing it is to see Dems who WANT a progressive candidate try to convince themselves that Gabrieli is a better package when they actually prefer Deval. Look, if you really like Chris, if you are really not worried that he lost Congress despite outspending Capuano 10-1, or that his millions poured into the general didn’t help Shannon (who suddenly became unlikeable after the primary although was the right moderate candidate before it?), or if you really think he reaches the average voter better than a guy who grew up poor, then vote for Chris. But if you are like a huge number of people who really get excited about Deval, stop holding back.
In fact, I have been hearing very positive statements about both new commercials. The recent movement in the polls favoring Gabrieli at Deval’s expense is clear evidence of this fact. Moreover, personal attacks are really very imappropriate and insensitive. A real turn off and don’t reflect well on the candidate that you support.
I agree that we should not engage in personal attacks. In fact, the disdain many of us have for the Reilly campaign right now stems in part from the effort to sponsor the Killer Coke guy on a specious issue (and in that regard, look at today’s Globe report on Deval’s record in the corporate world) that is based on character assasination by association, and has nothing to do with what he stands for.
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A personal attack is not what I meant to do. But if there are some arguing that Chris is the right candidate because he is more “electable”, it is right to discuss our perceptions of how each will fare in a general election. Chris has a track record in this regard, which is what I meant to refer back to. Sorry if it seemed to cross the line.
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Good ads can create positive voter impressions. But primaries also depend on who votes, who is motivated to vote, and how good folks are at turning out the votes. I haven’t seen a Gabrieli grass roots organization. If you have, please talk about it, how large is it, how well organized, how many cities and towns, etc.
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All of us are looking to see who can (a) articulate our views and policies, and (b) get elected. So convince me!
I was making an observation about Gab’s self-presentation and image which, for a candidate, is totally fair game. It was probably poorly worded, but that doesn’t make it a personal attack.
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Let me say it differently: Gabs doesn’t look gubernatorial. The reason that concerns me is that he might win the primary by triangulation between Deval and Reilly, but then lose the general because he just doesn’t cast an appealing image to the regular voters. Which gives us … Governor Healey.
For the record, I also have concerns about the viability of Patrick and Reilly in the general. But my concern with Gabrielli is easiest to vocalize because, well, it’s pretty simple.
Gabrieli isn’t GQ material but newsflash: neither is Deval. I think the Massachusetts electorate has had enough of the Ken doll in the corner office. Don’t you?
“Big dork”-iness is not in any way my concern with Deval. My concerns with him, regarding viability in the general election, are:
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1) He doesn’t talk enough about money, taxes, and other issues that I suspect middle-MA voters care about; (his politics of hope is probaby about 10x as meaningful to the political junkies as it is for the regular folks);
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2) He doesn’t sound like a normal person; (he sounds like he’s very passionate about justice and righteousness, but has he ever had to worry about making rent? What makes him tick? We progressives are comfortable with Deval’s persona, but we’re weird that way)
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So that’s my concern with the Deval in the general. It’s totally different from my thing with Gabs; Deval would do just fine on the cover of GQ.
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(FYI, I know very little about Kerry Healey, maybe if I did, I’d conclude that these guys will blow her out of the water regardless of their liabilities. But I don’t know yet. Maybe I should go check out one of her ads…)
A good poll for Gabrieli comes out and what do we see – personal attacks from the Kool Aid drinkers. All we need now is one of lightiris’ – the fraud di tutti frauds – poor attempts at taking a shot at Gabrieli with her pictorial comparisons. I say let’s get a picture of lightiris – a real one – and I’ll post that against a SI Swimsuit model’s.
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How’s that for personal?
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Now back to some analysis:
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Gabrieli plays very well with moderates. Almost all polls show that.
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Reilly is imploding and my guess is that Gabrieli gains more soft Reilly support than Patrick will.
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Turnout will be a huge determinant of this race. If it’s low, Reilly has a shot. If it’s moderate to high – and I think it will be on the high side despite Bill Galvin’s early projections – then it likely comes down to Gabrieli and Patrick.
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After being exposed in Killer Coke, Reilly has no choice or reason not to go negative. Look for him to come hard after Patrick over the next 2-3 weeks and come out with some issue oriented ad that attacks both CG/DP.
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If turnout is high, who is turning out in greater #s – liberals or independents? That will be key.
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Healey wants anyone but Gabrieli to win. How do we know that. 1) Republican operatives (e.g. C Manning) attack Gabrieli and speak about Deval in glowing terms. Do we really think they will be talking in such terms come 9/20? Didn’t think so. 2) Healey’s recent ad where she criticizes the spending of the three democrats – it shows Gabrieli’s name first with the highest $ figure for spending. That despite the fact that Gabrieli is likely the most fiscally responsible of the three (e.g. note his tax plan).
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If Patrick or Reilly wins the primary, they will both probably win the final, but it will be very close in November. If Gabrieli wins on 9/19, it could be a blow-out on November 7th.
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Bottom line on this poll – Gabrieli is the strongest opponent for Healey as he has the broadest appeal across the political spectrum. He also has the most $ to counter the inevitable attack ads from KH on Sept. 20th.
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Why did you begin with that worthless first paragraph? “Personal attacks from the Kool Aid drinkers” — wow, that sentence is like trying to divide by 0.
Someone’s a little scary.
…it dismays me to see the Democratic-party netroots circular-firing squad that occurs on this board on a regular basis.
“As a newcomer to Middle East politics, I’m very disappointed to see the level of argumentation that occurs in this stupid friggin desert on a regular basis.”
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That ought to get things moving.
…perhaps you missed my point.
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What would you call this, other than a silly comment that just typifies the puerile level of discourse that seems to be typical of the comments section of this blog:
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It’s just comment-section flaming, isn’t it?
I don’t know why my attempt to block-copy and paste some ranting about “lightritis” didn’t appear between the <<>> on my last comment.
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I guess I’ve got some things to learn about how to comment on this blog….
More silly sniping.
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Why don’t you tell me how to put block quotes in the comments section, rather than busying yourself in pointless comments-section flaming?
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Really, could you do me that favor?
formatting tips
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And welcome to BMG
This is a very, very interesting forum.
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I plan to return, after I read up on how to do this comments thing…
…in ad buys could buy!
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I wonder what Deval’s ads will look like? Will they be filled with substance-free slogans, like Gabs’s ads?
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Will Deval’s only substantive ad feature Cape Wind, an issue that, I imagine, doesn’t even place in the top ten issues that Massachusetts voters will be considering when stepping into the voting booth on September 19th?
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Maybe Deval’s kids will be cuter than Gabs’s kids, should Deval use them in one of his ads….
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Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure that Reilly’s newest comparative TV ads, touting his actual achievements, will continue to drive his numbers upwards.
Deval went over 16,000 contributors as of the end of July.
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That’s a lot of people with money in this horse race.
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All my friends ask why Gabrieli has his polo shirt tucked in his pants in one of his ads. I have not seen it yet. But they say it is indeed “dorky”
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Another quick story. A friend of mine walked past Garbrieli HQ last week and saw a girl up in the window and he gave her a playful “thumbs-down” – being a Deval supporter.
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She gave him the “bird” back
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He walked in – said what he did was free speech and what she did was as well- but she was also rude and he would tell every one he knew about the kind of organization he has….
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I don’t think anyone at Deval HQ would be flippin the bird to anyone in the same situation….
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Gabs is up there in the polls now because he’s spending money. Deval will match him dollar for dollar on ads the last two weeks of this campaign.
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Gabs won’t have the organization to get any people to the polls though and his people are scared by that thought…
BTW, Wayne, did you see this in the Globe today? Besides Lew, do you know any of these locals?
that an elected official such as yourself, Lightiris, would endorse Wayne’s personal, insensitive and in my opinion inaccurate, attack on Gabrieli’s looks. It is very foolish of you, as an elected official to be so personal and nasty. Doesn’t really inspire support from the electorate, if you know what I mean. Your endorsement of Wayne’s childish “analysis” is just another example of the pettiness that some Deval supporters engage in when they are faced with bad news about their candidate.
If by endorsement, you mean the “Well said” and the rating, well, that’s quite true. I know Wayne personally and know that he’s an unbelievably committed Democrat who puts his money where his mouth is. He’s tireless, dependable, and generous. I admire his energy and his dedication.
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Now, having said that, I know that you’ve never been known to harpoon anyone’s post with the label of “worthless” simply because you don’t agree with their entirely reasonable statements. I don’t know anything about you personally, about the level of your financial dedication to the Democratic Party (never mind your candidate du jour), or your community engagement.
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Nonetheless, I found your most recent comments about me personally here quite helpful and informative. Thanks.
helpful and informative. I’m always here to lend a helping hand. As far as your statement: “I know that you’ve never been known to harpoon anyone’s post with the label of “worthless” simply because you don’t agree with their entirely reasonable statements.” Right back at you, Lightiris.
you’re kidding right Greencape? You forgot the /snark at the end of your post?
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All I did was repeat my friends’ comments.
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I said mentioned I had not seen the ads yet – someone in an earlier post mentioned “dorky” I belive – but I may be mistaken.
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I would apologize to Mr. Gabrieli personally if I thought he took it in a nasty way way.
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Insensitive would be saying something like “the only reason Gabrieli is in this race is SPITE” – now THAT would be insensitive if I said such a thing.
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And elected officials can no longer have opinions? JEEZ LOUISE! If we want public officials with no opinions then let’s keep electing Mitt Romneys and Kerry Healys and Lew Evangelidises all day long…..
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I do not see any bad news in this for Deval at all. He’ll spend his money when he has to and IF he has to.
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Gabs just has to spend it all now and hope people remember him a month and 5 days from now.
mispellings and gramatical errors in previous and current posts…
about whether calling someone a dork or saying my sister or someone else I know thought he looked like a dork is a personal attack or a constructive criticism. I think most honest people know which it is. Although Chris has a thick skin, I thought the comment calling Chris dorky was insensitive because you mentioned it during a time that he has been mourning the death of his beloved mother,Lila Gabrieili. For the record, I never said that an elected official cannot have opinions. They obviously must have opinions. But being sarcastic and at times nasty does not reflect well on that public official, in my opinion. Regarding whether or not Deval will have to spend his money now or not, are you joking? If he has the money he better start spending it and soon. As it stands now, I think that Patrick may have waited a little too long. Once Deval goes up on TV not only will there be Chris, Kerry and Tom still on TV. But also, very likely, Deb Goldberg, perhaps Christy Mihos and even Bill Galvin taking up the airwaves as well. Lastly, your comment “Gabs just has to spend it all now and hope people remember him (in) a month (or) 5 days from now.” Are you serious? Rest assured, Gabrieli has more than enough money to stay on TV through and after September 19.
Look at it this way. Most of the (primary) votes Gabrielli gets are from liberals who think Patrick may be too far to the left to win an election. Therefore, by attacking Deval Patrick, all Tom Reilly is doing right now is driving voters into the Gabrielli camp. Deval doesn’t stand to gain from taking shots at Reilly, because they will move into Gabrielli’s tent, him being the alternative establishment candidate. This means two things.
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Reilly must siphon off conservative and moderate dem supporters of Gabbs, and will be forced to go negative on him, rather than Deval, to win.
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Deval must convince primary voters that either a)Gabrielli is not any more “electable” than he is or b) challenge Gabbs progressive credentials.
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Any way you slice it, Gabrielli will be stuck in the middle. Although Reilly’s numbers are down right now, negative ads against Gabrielli can turn the whole name recognition thing Gabs has going for him against him. If Reilly can split the progressive vote in half between Deval and Gabbs, he can still pull this off. Likewise, Deval must cement the firm backing he already has by continuing his field strategy and only then making appeals on TV.
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This leaves Gabrielli vulnerable. As the candidate of the mushy middle, with two very credible candidates on the wings, he faces an uphill battle in the primary, considering that DP still is up in the latest polls. He has to hope Reilly continues attack Deval through Killer Coke, etc, in effect acting as his puppet.
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My prediction is that DP will pull it out close over Reilly, with Gabbs peaking once Patrick goes on the air. The Gabber’s ad buys will be diluted by then and the center will not hold for im in september.
People and newspapers have been going negative on Gabrieli every since BEFORE he got in the race. Especially the Patrick Campaign and FYI take a look at this site.
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Sounds an awful lot like wishful thinking.
I went to an event hosted by Jimmy Tingle for Deval Patrick. Jimmy has not endorsed Deval, he merely asked him questions and invited him to appear on his local (Somerville-Cambridge area) television show. At this event Deval was calm, relaxed, at east, he gave great answers to the crowds questions, and I would also say that most people in the crowd who asked questions preceded those questions with the statement “Im undecided”. One was a small buisness owner on healthcare, another a mother on the state of public education, another discussing the property tax rollback. The crowd asked tough questions, “how will you handle the legislature?”, “Do you agree that the health care plan hurts small buisness”, etc. Deval was poised, confident, eager to answer questions, witty, and just very down to earth.
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His life story, his message, all of these things can really resonate with voters especially against such a bland candidate like Kerry Healy. I honestly think that once he is the nominee and gets statewide recognition his personality, likability, and common sense progressive ideas will appeal to a very broad cross section of voters. My own personal experience canvassing door to door informs me that most of the voters are still undecided, still not quite paying attention to the race, and since Devals is the only campaign really reaching out to people individually and really appealing to them to go the polls I think we will have a good night primary night.
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Your “example” has no opposition present for voters to make comparisions with.
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Take for instance the Enviromental Debate held in Cambridge last month. Deval Patrick (D), Christy Mihos (Unenrolled), Chris Gabrieli(D) and Grace Ross (Green Party) attended and AG Tom Reilly did not attend.
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This was a Deval Patrick crowd. Yet Chris Gabrieli held his own and answered questions in detail in the time alloted.
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This debate highlighted the internal inconsistancy in the Deval Patrick campaign strategy. Deval holds himself up as all in favor of “environmental justice”, but stumbled when asked a question about his involvement with the Indigenous Tribal Indians Rainforest pollution suit against Texaco. The Deval supporter next to me was speechless at the answer.
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The accusation is that he appears to have become window dressing in various multi-national corporations to allow them to get away with environmental injustice for one.
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See the post Deval Patrick’s Texaco Rainforest Indigenous Indian Answer? for more details if you are interested.
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The bottom line is, these questions don’t seem to be getting settled, that is they should be diminishing not increasing. That is there are two ongoing story lines that aren’t getting resolved. Obviously things aren’t going according to the script laid out long ago.
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It is time to consider what is best for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to face the challenges ahead. While we all agree Kerry Healey is not the answer, we need someone that stands in sharp contrast to her and can win in November with the largest margin possible.
On the other hand, I think this is a clear indication of how appealing Gabrieli is to conservatives! I am glad to be living in a blue state. Let’s keep it as BLUE as possible.