Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Poll: Dems are close, race is fluid

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Globe/UNH poll:

Patrick 31%

Gabrieli 30%

Reilly 27%

“501 likely Democratic primary voters”, includes leaners, 4.4% MOE.

The poll seems to indicate a very fluid race. In any event, it’s not the point, it’s the slope of the line:

The poll indicated major gains over the past six months by both Gabrieli and Patrick, and a continued decline by Reilly, once the front-runner. A poll in March by the Globe found that 35 percent of likely primary voters supported Reilly, 22 percent backed Patrick, and 4 percent supported Gabrieli, who did not officially enter the race until April.

Lots, lots more in the poll. Check out the DOC.

Update: I wanted to get up a post to start the discussion — Publius has more here on favs/unfavs.

I’ve always been intrigued by the question of whether a true grassroots, neighbor-to-neighbor campaign can really be viable at a state level — whether depth of support can translate into breadth. And indeed Patrick enjoys more loyalty and enthusiasm among his supporters than the others do:

Seventy-eight percent of Patrick’s supporters in the survey said they would definitely, or probably, vote for him, while 20 percent said there is a good chance they would change their minds. Some 68 percent of Reilly’s backers and 68 percent of Gabrieli’s supporters say they would definitely or probably vote for their choices. Thirty percent of Reilly’s voters and 32 percent of Gabrieli’s said there is a good chance they might switch to another candidate.

The real question is whether that trumps Gabrieli’s money advantage or Reilly’s name recognition advantage. With just over three weeks to go, the crunch time for broadening the appeal is now.

Another update: Good gravy, Healey is just poison according to this poll: 26% favorable, 53% unfavorable. That’s a cratering -27% net. Yeesh — those ads are not getting her any “cuddly” at. all. What now — just go straight-up negative on September 20th?

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Comments

  1. sure, her numbers are wretched, but remember that the poll only considers likely Dem primary voters.  If her numbers were any better, it would actually be pretty bad news for the Dems.

  2. Despite the razor-thin margins in the horserace numbers, it’s hard not to see several pieces of good news for Deval Patrick in this poll.

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    • Fav/unfav/neutral/dunno.  Patrick’s at 51/10/15/25.  Lowest unfav of any candidate.  Gabs is at 55/14/15/16 – higher fav than DP, but higher unfav by the same 4%, and less room to grow (16% dunno, vs. DP’s 25%).  Reilly, at 52/24/16/8, has good fav but significantly higher unfav than the others, with most voters (92%) already having an opinion.  Advantage: Patrick & Gabs; disadvantage: Reilly.
    • Certainty.  Only 20% of Patrick supporters/leaners say they might change their mind.  That number is at or above 30% for Gabs and Reilly.  Advantage: Patrick.
    • Actual likelihood of voting.  In the horserace numbers that includes “leaners” (that’s the DP 31%, CG 30%, TR 27% set), the candidates are in a 3-way tie (30% each) among candidates who will “definitely vote” in the primary (that’s 310 of the 482 respondents).  However, among the second tier of voters who will “vote unless emergency,” Patrick is well ahead by 35%, to 26% for Reilly and 23% for Gabrieli.  That’s another 108 voters.  The 65 remaining voters, who “may vote,” back Gabs at 38%, followed by Patrick at 30% and Reilly at 15%.  Advantage: Patrick.

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    Those are the ones that jumped out at me.  I’m sure there are more nuggets in there, though.  What does anyone make of this number: respondents believe that Tom Reilly has the best chance of winning in November – 37%, followed by Patrick at 23% and Gabrieli at 21% with 24% undecided – even though Reilly consistently polls in third place in the rest of the poll?  From the poll’s executive summary, on those numbers:

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    • Reilly supporters, lower income voters, and residents of Central MA are most likely to say Reilly has the best chance of winning in November.
    • Patrick supporters and voters with post-graduate educations are most likely to say Patrick has the best chance of winning.
    • Only Gabrieli supports are likely to say he has the best chance of winning.

  3. Actually, THAT is the point of the poll, at least according Andrew E. Smith, the survey center director.

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    The “slope of the line” is only relevant if you are interested in comparing a poll from March with a poll from August.  (Part of the Globe story line because they went nearly a half year between polls.)  I don’t find that exercise all that relevant.  Much has happened over the last 6 months and my sense, confirmed by most of the recent polls, is that Tom Reilly is trending upward during the homestretch, while Patrick may be slipping a little and Gabrieli may be stalling a bit.

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    After taking hit after hit, Tom Reilly is not only in the mix of this “wide open race,” but he is coming on at just the right time.

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    And, according to the Globe story, an overwhelming number of those polled believe that Tom Reilly has the best chance to defeat Kerry Healey in November:

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    In the race for governor, Reilly, a two – term attorney general who is well known around the state, was seen as the Democrat with the best chance to win in the Nov. 7 general election. Thirty-seven percent of the Democrats surveyed said Reilly had the best chance of winning the general election, while 23 percent named Patrick, and 21 percent chose Gabrieli.

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    Among many other factors, that is surely going to play a big role over the next three weeks.

    • Trends do matter, more than individual polls, because they show how the efforts of the campaigns over time have affected those voters who are paying attention.  I think trends in favorable/unfavorable are a lot more meaningful than the “who you gonna vote for?” numbers (which, as I’ve said many times, I’m highly skeptical of, especially those from more than a month before the election).  But however you look at it, this poll plus others tell us that as Reilly campaigns more and the other candidates campaign more, and as more people form opinions of Reilly, his standing weakens.  Now, all the candidates know when election day is, so their strategies take that in mind, and this may be phantom bad news for Reilly – but it certainly isn’t good news for him.  It looks bad.

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      I haven’t seen evidence that Tom Reilly is “coming on” recently.  He definitely still seems to have a chance of winning, I don’t doubt that.  But I knew that before this poll, and this poll at best makes it seem just slighltly less likely than it did before.

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      Thirty-seven percent of the Democrats surveyed said Reilly had the best chance of winning the general election

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      I don’t think that will be a major factor.  It’s not that much higher a number than the people who support Reilly for Governor, and I also don’t get a sense that, outside of Dem party activists (who probably back Reilly more than the general primary voting population), this is such a desperate “we’ve gotta beat the Republicans!!!” kind of race.  This isn’t President, 2004.  Outside of committed Democratic activists, I think Dem primary voters are fairly relaxed about which party the Governor will be, and considering other factors with much higher priority – like which candidate they actually like.

  4. I’ve always been intrigued by the question of whether a true grassroots, neighbor-to-neighbor campaign can really be viable at a state level

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    Jon Tester
    Ned Lamont
    Peter Vickery – not quite state level, but 1/8 of the state is a lot.

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