No matter how many lefties Reilly can peel away from Deval, are the Kos bloggers and diversity celebrators really going to defect to Tom Reilly, a white heterosexual Irish Catholic without a trust fund who was born and raised in Massachusetts and didnt go to an Ivy League college? The man is practically a walking hate crime, as far as Devals devotees are concerned. So Reillys attempts to win their votes are hopeless.
GGW take:
I think this poll is good news for DP….he can’t eclipse 38% (plus 2% GOTV bonus), so he needs Reilly above 20%. Plus, to Howie’s point, Reilly’s best shot is to attack Gabs, not DP.
Bonus discussion question: which scenario do you think Healey prefers? And which will happen?
a) Dems having spent all cash in primary, but mostly on positive messages, meaning her attacks will be “fresh.”
b) Dems having spent all cash in primary, but with some ads in these last weeks on negative messages, thereby “softening them up.”
P.S. Nobody has tackled the bonus question! C’mon folks. You need the extra credit.
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I like how Frank Philips’ headline claims “3-way tie” from two sets of numbers: one a Patrick lead and one a Partick-Gabrieli tie.
DP and Reilly have GOTV. Plus Reilly has some old folks who never miss Election Day.
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Gabs doesn’t.
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If he doesn’t have a clearly defined lead by election day – Gabs 40%, Patrick 35%, Reilly 25% – then he’s toast.
Gabs does have GOTV. The growth of the Gabrieli campaign is enormous in terms of $, polling results, and people. You don’t have to believe me. The results – no Gabrieli pun intended – will be there on the 19th and speak for themselves.
SSG, please – a comment isn’t “worthless” just because you disagree with it. The first comment by alexwill in particular is clearly not “3”-worthy, and doesn’t even say anything about Gabrieli’s GOTV effort. Don’t screw up the system.
but the you and the other Deval backers have mastered this trick. This is based upon the # of threes I get from you folks when you disagree with me & others so I figured that I’d give you guys a taste of of your own medicine. Glad to see that you can still dish it out but not take it. Here’s another three for you! Best, SSG
I have never given you a 3, certainly not in the circumstances you describe.
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You, however, are in violation of the site’s rules. Consider yourself warned.
SSG,
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Your later post – that this poll has some good news for Gabs – certainly true.
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35% market share has come available in the last few months, mostly from undecideds, and the rest is Reilly’s -7%.
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Of that 35%, Gabs snagged 26% and DP the other 9%.
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And I tend to like Gabs and may endorse him! That could put him over the top. However, I feel he’s hitting the limits of the available votes.
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Whatever GOTV Gabs may have, however, it pales to that of DP and Reilly’s machine people. In a relative sense, there’s no question he’s at GOTV disadvantage.
Very nice analysis even if I do not necessarily agree with all of it. Deval reputedly has a great ground game and I tend to believe it. Reilly has a lot of institutional support (e.g. Menino,Glodis, etc.), but I question the passion, commitment, and depth of the Reilly support – even with the superb poster here Maverick Dem notwithstanding. Tom needs more like him.
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I was unable to make a Gabrieli GOTV meeting yesterday morning due to a serious family health-related issue, but word is that it was incredibly well attended (i.e. well north of 100 people and this was a regional meeting). In addition to paid staff, I and many others I personally know are volunteering for the duration on 19th, so I think we will do OK. Time will tell which of us is correct! I hope we are, but if not I will admit as much on the 20th!
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As for your endorsement, we would be honored to have it! If not, I am sure the other camps would love to have it as well. I may have to post some endorsements myself to offset that earlier BMG endorsement! 🙂
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Have a great one!
Although I’m not sure that I merit anything close to “superb poster” status. How about, just trying my best?
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I would, however, strongly disagree with the notion Tom Reilly’s supporters lack passion, commitment, and depth. I just think Tom Reilly’s core support comes from people that aren’t part of the “activist” crowd. They aren’t into bumper stickers or lawn signs or, most definitely, the blogosphere. Not that there is anything wrong with the blogosphere, but we sometimes lose sight of that fact that the vast majority of voters have no idea who we are and could care even less. Heck, if the polls are right, Tom Reilly’s strongest support comes from seniors, a group that is surely underrepresented in the blogosphere. In truth, I think
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So, while I may be in the minority on BMG and Tom Reilly’s supporters may be more low-key than, say, Deval Patrick’s, there is a strong contingent of voters out there – a “Silent Plurality,” perhaps – who just want to show up on Election Day and cast their ballots.
Mav, I will not dispute your contention since you are much more in tune with the Reilly camp than I am. It’s similar to those who say that Gabrieli has no GOTV when I know first hand that we do and that it’s growing/improving rapidly. I hope we win on the 19th, but if it’s your guy, you’ve got my vote in November and support in the general.
system ain’t workin’ when people feel the need to throw someone a “6” to offset an unfair rating.
I will mininmize my use of “reactionary” 3’s if you and your friends do as well.
I never rate comments, don’t pay any attention to the ratings comments get and, as you might gather, don’t think the current system works well at all. In principle: all in favor of ratings. In practice: the current system is pretty useless, its only real value seems to be as a small-minded one-on-one sniping tool.
nix em.
If you distribute the undecided pool in the same ratio as the ones who expressed a preference, the result is 36-32-29-3. Given the sample size, there is only about a 15% chance that Patrick’s lead over Gabrieli is a false signal of how the total electorate feels at the moment. Remember, lots can happen in 4 weeks, so this is only a reflection of people’s current [as of 8/23] views! btw, there’s only about a 3% chance that Reilly actually leads Patrick, and only about a 20% chance that he’s ahead of Gabrieli.
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Deval is clearly in the lead, with lots of other favorable things showing in the poll results. Deval has the best favorable/unfavorable numbers among the 3 candidates, and he has the lowest name recognition. That last may sound like a negative at first — but just think about it as the potential to attract even more voters in the next 3 weeks, leading up to Primary Day, as the campaign ads hit the airwaves. Patrick also has the most loyal supporters (no surprise here!), showing they are much less likely to change their minds over the next 3 weeks than are supporters of the other 2 candidates.
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If you read the tabs, there are a lot of oddities, including what appear to be some errors (e.g. N=482 “including leaners” and N=491 “likely Dem primary voters” — the latter category should presumably be smaller…) Also, it seems odd that Patrick scores only 17% (of 69 voters) on the Cape & Islands, an area where he pretty much swept the caucuses). Still, it would be pointless to nitpick a poll that was taken more than a month away from the election.
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Granted, these comments come from a devoted Patrick supporter — the other campaigns will have their own spin. For example, I got an email from the Reilly campaign today saying, “Yesterday’s Boston Globe says it all – the primary is a dead heat and voters believe Tom Reilly will be the next Governor of Massachusetts.”
This poll has something in it for all camps to think about and be happy about. My perspective as a Gabrieli backer is to note the tremendous growth of the Gabrieli campaign in a very short 4.5 to 5 months. Despite huge head starts for Patrick and Reilly, Gabrieli has moved from 4% to 30% very quickly (over a 7x multiple in growth and a +26% net change). Patrick is up a net of 9% and Reilly is down a net of 8% over this timeframe. As the candidate with the most resources and growth – in $, people, and popularity as Gabrieli had the highest positive response in the favorable/unfavorable sections of the poll – I LOVE Gabrieli’s position with just over 3 weeks to go.
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PS There was Gabrieli stand-out in Foxboro last night. Overwhelming and I mean OVERWHELMING positive response.
I think your post is a terrible way to describe Tom Reilly. You should leave out religion, race, ethnicity and sexuality when posting.
who, though loathsome, is influential. It’s a public service to pass on his perspective. (Howie, of course, is not propounding the anti-Reilly sentiments you are complaining of but attributing them to Patrick and Gabrieli supporters.)
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I suggest you take a little more time reading before posting next time.
That’s who is quoted.
Though loathesome, Howie Carr is influential. Don’t you think that Carr is paying Deval Patrick a backhanded compliment here, possibly helping Tom Reilly in the process?
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There are plenty of voters (although not many “BMG voters”) who will read that paragraph and say, Hey, I can relate to some or all of the Reilly guy and not at all to that Patrick fellow.
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Tom Reilly is not only “above 20,” he’s actually closer to 30%, so he’s much more of a threat to Patrick than a column to be moved on a spreadsheet.
He’s so convinced that people like me hate all Irish Catholics when actually I just hate him. Actually, MavDem, I agree with you entirely. Carr’s spewings reinforce two narratives:
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“Reilly is the true Irish non-rich regular guy in the race”, which is favorable to Reilly, and
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“Reilly is the true old-school Irish politician in the race, who like right-thinking Howie Carr fans hates blacks and gays.” (There is excellent evidence that the latter is not at all true, i.e., that Reilly hates neither blacks nor gays, as we’ve discussed.) This narrative favors Patrick‘s image as a non-traditional politician, though the bigot vote is non-trivial in this state.
but reader’s who are unfamiliar with Deval Patrick may find the first narrative plausible, while the second narrative will find virtually no audience.
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Am I just restating your argument?
Howie is not wrong that some Patrick supporters view Reilly this way, so the second narrative has some audience. But making such voters less likely to switch from Patrick to Reilly in the primary is of no consequence, since they weren’t about to make such a switch anyway. Reinforcing the second narrative could hurt Reilly in the general against Healey if he wins the primary, by dampening liberal turnout.
I wasn’t trying to put words in your mouth. After I read what I typed and what you had written, I wasn’t sure if I had just repeated the same thought. Thanks, DaveMB.
Patrick’s not Irish?
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I was worried that an eventual Patrick/Murray ticket would a little too much of the same old thing, you know?
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PS: I voted for Tom Birmin’ham in ’02.
But I would have to think that after having run a couple of other times that Gabrieli must have some semblance of a ground game.
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Sure he might have spent $17 million of his own dough (or whatever amount it was) to build it, but I doubt he is hiring temps to stuff envelopes.
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I agree with others here and elsewhere who have said that Gabs main problem now is that he might be reaching the point of diminishing returns. He has spent a lot of cash and still hasn’t broken out, which I am very happy about because I am supporting Patrick.
I think that’s a really good point. If you spend $5 million on TV, and the ads don’t positively suck, you will build your name recognition, your favorability, and your horserace number. But if you then spend another $5M, it will not have anywhere near the same effect — you’ve already reaped the low-hanging voter fruit.
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We don’t know what the shape of the curve that charts voters persuaded versus dollars spent. But Gabrieli’s curve is probably in a flatter stretch by now than Reilly’s or, especially, Patrick’s.
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One problem for all of the candidates, maybe Patrick especially as the least well known: the clutter period is beginning, when there are so many ads for so many candidates that everyone has a harder time getting their message to be received and to stick. (Hey, Sabutai, I think that last one is not an approved talking point. No Kool Aid for me tonight….)