Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza has moved Massachusetts up to fourth place on his list of governorships most likely to change parties. The reason? The emergence as frontrunner of the candidate feared most by Republicans, Chris Gabrieli.
This open seat race has yo-yoed around the Line for much of the last year as we try and get a handle on who the Democratic nominee might be and just how strong Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) is as a candidate. Democrats have reason to smile this month as self-funder Chris Gabrieli moved into the lead over former U.S. Deputy Attorney General Deval Patrick and State Attorney General Tom Reilly in a poll conducted by Suffolk University. Republicans acknowledge that Gabrieli is the strongest potential Democratic nominee and would be difficult to beat in the general election.
I know, I know, many of you out there will say the Suffolk poll is not enough to call Chris frontrunner. I’m hoping its results are repeated in future polls, but I’m more interested in the idea that Republicans don’t think Healey can beat Gabrieli, and the polling that backs that up. Given how close Gabrieli and Patrick are on the issues (see Charley’s recent post), I’m wondering what’s at stake for progressives in the Patrick candidacy. Is the promise of a New Politics worth passing on a sure thing in the general election? My sense is a lot of Patrick supporters want a governor who belongs to them, as a movement, rather than one whose mandate comes from across the entire electorate. Chris’s broad-based support will put him in office as someone who already has unified people across ideological lines. Right-of-center people have shown they are willing to vote for a progressive because they trust his pragmatism. This is a rare and momentous opportunity in our politics. It makes for a much more realistic kind of consensus than the rhetorical one promised by Deval.
can we just get through the primary and see which candidate the majority of Massachusetts Democrats thinks can beat Kerry Healey?
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And your “sense” that Patrick supporters “want a governor who belongs to them” as part of some “movement” is silly. What a bizarre notion. We want a competent, dedicated, energetic, thoughtful, governor with vision. Guess what? So do Reilly supporters and Gabrieli supporters.
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I can’t wait for this freakin’ primary to be over so the armchair psychoanalysis and the pigeonholing can stop. There are three candidates running. Most of us have picked one who reflects our values and hopes. Our choices don’t reflect cognitive or emotional disabilities.
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One of these guys will win on September 19th–and I’m hopeful we Democrats will rally behind the guy who does win and move forward. If it’s Gabrieli, I’ll do my part. If it’s Reilly, I’ll do my part. And if it’s Patrick, I’ll celebrate and do my part. I worry that the same can’t be said for some of the more rabid enthusiastic supporters around here.
I hope my characterization of Deval’s support didn’t obscure the main point of my post, which was to ask people to consider the implications of Chris’s massive advantage in the general election: both in terms of winning it for the Democratic Party, and for having a progressive governor with a mandate.
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I don’t think my description of Deval’s supporters is that far from the way many of them describe the campaign themselves. It does have the feel of a movement, and people frequently claim the campaign belongs to all its participants. There’s a lot of good in that. Calling someone “rabid,” on the other hand, is in fact applying a pathological term.
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PS – I’ll wholeheartedly support whichever Democrat wins.
a “massive advantage.” This is a guy who has lost two major statewide elections. This is a guy who has had one outlier poll put him atop the frontrunner for the first time. Trend or incident? Bad poll? Whichever, it’s cost him over $7.3 million. Crazy.
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If he pull it off and wins the primary, that’s one thing. The landscape changes. But he’s not won anything yet, and I gotta tell ya, I hear a lot of disengaged folks say they don’t like the fact that the guy is trying to buy an election.
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We’ll see.
Some on BMG seem to forget the fact that Chris was their LG nominee in 2002. That’s right: Chris Gabrieli has won a statewide Democratic primary election before. He did lose a 1998 congressional race, but that wasn’t a statewide election. So your main point is incorrect on two counts. I argue that Shannon O’Brien lost the ’02 general election. Tattoos anyone?
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The funny thing about disengaged folks is that they stay disengaged. Most regular voters (who I like to refer to as the silent majority) like Chris’s ads, like his message, like his record of actually working to improve life in Massachusetts, and his down-to-earth demeanor. So if he spends a ton of his own money, so what? Deval’s no pauper himself. If Chris’s message gets out and it’s one that resonates with voters (as it seems to be doing), then he does have an advantage.
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All the platitudes and feel-good crap about “hope”, hearing justice in somebody’s voice, and magic happening in empty classrooms will only go so far. I think Deval has already peaked. Primary voters are going to be pragmatic. They want somebody who’s credible, realistic, and straight-forward with them, not somebody who spouts liberal rhetoric without any substance.
at “major races”, you’re right. And he did lose right along with Shannon O’Brien, as inconvenient as that may be. Yes, he won the primary, though.
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Given your antipathy for Deval Patrick, what will you do if Patrick wins the primary?
I’ll support whomever the Democratic nominee happens to be. I hope the Devalytes will do the same if it’s someone other than Patrick.
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However, your adjustment in terms doesn’t acknowledge the fact that Gabrieli won a statewide Democratic primary for a constitutional office in 2002. Curiously worded, I must say…
Gabrieli did NOT lose 2 major statewide elections. In fact, he won the 2002 statewide primary election for Lt. Governor. More importantly, Gabrieli was the highest vote getter of ALL of the candidates in the 2002 Democratic primary. You cannot pin Chris with the Dems loss in the 2002 general election. The general election race is a referendum on the top of the ticket, the gubernatorial candidate NOT the LT.governor’s candidate. If the 2002 general election was about the Lt. governor candidates, I think it is a fair statement to say that Shannon and Chris would be running for reelection. Furthermore, if you are referring to Chris’ congressional race as the “other major statewide election” that he lost, I think you must realize that you misspoke. A congressional race is not a statewide election. Rather, it is an election held within a congressional district not the entire state.
Lightiris – wow, where to begin?
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1) “This is a guy who has lost two major statewide elections”.
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Nonsense. He lost a congressional election his first time out. That was not a statewide race and he ran against a lot of more well known politicians with better/more established organizations (e.g. very important in congressional races).
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As noted earlier, Gabrieli won the 2002 democratic primary for lieutenant governor and received the most votes of any democrat on the ballot in that primary – including O’Brien and Galvin. That the general election ticket of O’Brien and Gabrieli lost to Romney/Healey is not on Gabrieli. Can we agree that people vote the top of most tickets unless your name is Admiral Stockdale? If folks could have voted separately for the top and bottom of the ticket, Gabrieli would have beaten Healey hands down four years ago.
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Additionally, losing an election does not disqualify you from being very successful in future elections. Two of the best politicians of the last 40 years, if not all time – Clinton and Reagan – lost elections, no?
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2) “I gotta tell ya, I hear a lot of disengaged folks say they don’t like the fact that the guy is trying to buy an election.”
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Nonsense again. He has spent a lot of money on issue focused ads, never attacking or even naming one of his primary opponents to date. He had to spend a lot of that money before the convention to raise his profile to try to get on the ballot – in spite of the tactics of your guy at said convention, Mr. Inclusive.
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I like that the fact that he puts his $ where his mouth is. Also, a lot of the democratic fundraisers were already with Reilly or Patrick by the time Gabrieli entered the race – thanks to Reilly in large part. You can be certain that donations from outside sources to the Gabrieli campaign will grow exponentially if he wins the primary.
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I have received overwhelming positive feedback on Gabrieli’s ads – although in the spirit of honesty I also hear occasional suggestions and/or complaints. Who are you talking to? It’s amazing how these “unengaged” folks sought you out to make their feelings known on his trying to buy the election. Absolutely amazing.
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4) “One outlier poll”?
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Please. Why? Because it did not contain results you liked?
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I do not see the Suffolk poll as an outlier. That CBS fast-track poll that came out the same day looks much more questionable from here (e.g. check out the % of respondents with graduate/advanced degrees, way too high; 6% undecided is too low at this point on the calendar).
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In the end, both of the recent polls are really meaningless. Polls are snapshots and more current polls will be out soon enough.
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Gabrieli has the momentum at this point. That is probably why we saw a change in tone from Patrick last week and Reilly’s nonsense & distortions/inaccuracies as it pertains to why he and Gabrieli did not form a ticket. If Gabrieli wins on the 19th, I hope you and your friends will congratulate us and join us rather than rationalize why your guy lost (e.g. it was the money).
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In the end – as we all should know by now – the only “poll” that matters will be out late on September 19th or early on September 20th.
From today’s Deval Patrick press release:
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Someone’s taking both those polls seriously… I heartily urge Patrick and Gabrieli to keep focusing on each other, and detailing their areas of disagreement. Publicly and loudly.
It’s interesting. I have been working on Victory 06, the coordinated campaign, to elect a democratic governor in November. Many of the people in that campaign are Deval supporters. I have yet to meet a Gabrielli or Reilly supporter working for Vistory 06. I adore Deval. I used to like Gabrielli,but his appeal to me was lost before the convention when he sent out that letter with the faux state seal headlined “From Democratic Officials.” I lost a lot of respect for the man at that time. His commercial with his children is innane, not a whole lot better than Deb Goldberg’s video at the convention. I want Deval to win. If Chris wins the primary, I will support him. If Reilly wins the primary, I will hold my nose and support him. Anybody but Healey.
I agree with you on the anybody but Healey remark, though I am worried about unity after the primary, especially if the nominee is not Deval Patrick.
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As for meeting lots of people on Victory 06 who are Deval supporters, there are three answers.
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1 — All the polls are completely wrong. This website is burdened by Deval supporters who’ve never met someone at (event) who supports/really supports/will support after tomorrow Gabrieli/Reilly/Gabrieli and Reilly. Nobody really supported Candidate A or B at the convention, or continues to do so in the western, northern, or southern parts of the state, or Cape Cod for that matter. So those polls — which is every single one taken — that show a majority of voters supporting people not named Deval are wrong.
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I can tell you that when I meet someone who supports Deval and the topic turns to politics, I don’t say much because supporting Reilly or Gabrieli just leads to a lecture.
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2 — Deval’s supporters believe that this is wrapped up (despite notable evidence), and working in Victory 06 is pretty much the equivalent of working for Deval for Governor.
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3 — Deval and Victory 06 both engage the same pool: establishment Democrats, where Deval has the edge in endorsements, etc., and liberal activists.
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All are welcome to reply with the approved talking points.
This chatter about collusion between elements of MDP and the Deval camp reminds me that both are housed in the same building: 56 Roland Street in Boston. Just strikes me as funny.
I have seen this idea posted several times, that Repubs supposedly fear Gabs over Patrick and Reilly. Two questions:.
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1.) If this fear is in fact real, what is the motivating factor? I haven’t seen that second part coming from the Repub sources (but have seen the presented rationale from the Gabs supporters). Process of elimination would suggest that it’s money, namely Gabs ability to self-finance. The whole Gabs appeals to moderates seems pretty far-fetched in that both and Patrick are relatively similar, especially with regards to the big issues and both can point to distinguished private sector/corporate careers that would seem to alleviate the whole anti-business stigma usually attached to dems. As for personality, almost everyone agrees that Deval is a charismatic person so it would hard to argue that Gabs is somehow significantly better on that front. So eliminating position and personality, it really only leaves money. Obviously Gabs wins that battle, but I would posit that Devals fundraising success, especially this month, show he can raise a pile of cash pretty quickly.
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2.) The cynic in me has a question. Why are the republicans so anxious to tell anyone that will listen that they fear Gabs the most? I don’t trust republicans and wonder if this is dirty trick (let’s tell em we are scared of Gabs so they choose Gabs when really we think we have the best shot of beating him…or something like that).
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I guess in the end, until I hear a republican source articulate why they are supposedly scared of Gabs more so than the other two candidates, the cynic in me might win out. Of course, all the polls so far, for what they are worth, show all three Democrats beating Healy (even though two of the Dems, Reilly and Patrick, haven’t been on the air nearly as long as Healy). Which further makes me wonder if the money will matter all that much in the end.
I agree wahoowa that we could get locked in a cycle of reverse-reverse-reverse psychology a la The Princess Bride. The classic case is Rove cheering on Howard Dean — was it because Dean would be the easiest to beat, was he the hardest and we got psyched, or… et cetera.
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Mind you this blog is not official GOP, so we may be attributing quite the deep war here. As I’ve said before, each candidate offers something, whether it’s charisma, money, or experience. We decide next month which we value more. And we’re better off not trying to vote on electability, mainly because people who do so are often wrong.
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Two of the biggest issues for the broad center:
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1. Chris supports a sensible income tax rollback.
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2. Chris makes it clear that while he opposes the exploitation of undocumented immigrants, he does not support driver’s licenses or in-state tuition for them.
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As to business careers, Chris’s has been in entrepreneurship and investing in growth for start-ups and in-state businesses. Deval’s is with multinationals based far from here, in roles he is still struggling to justify.
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In fundraising, whatever amount Deval can raise does not come close to the resources available to either Chris or Kerry Healey.
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Chris’s lead over Healey head-to-head has polled at twice Deval’s, and considerably more than Tom Reilly’s.
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Deval and Chris have basically the same position on the tax rollback: we can’t do it right now, but we can eventually. Deval’s plan is to grow the economy first, while Chris’s is to just return local aide to pre-Romeny cuts first. I don’t see it as a majorly divisive issue between the two, though I think Deval’s plan is more comprehensive and long-term.
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This is a major difference. Deval and Tom both have reasonable positions: though disagreeing about driver’s licenses, as there are reasonable security concerns, they both agree that all state residents should have equal access to public higher ed. Beond thsat, Chris also supports allowing discrimination in housing against undocumented immigrants.
I think the fact that Chris has a specific plan to achieve the rollback, and that he puts it at the forefront of his talk about the issue, distinguishes him in the public’s mind from Deval, who pushes more on the side of why he’s against an immediate rollback. Chris’s emphasis inspires more confidence that he will try to get the rollback done.
Has Gabs talked about the income tax rollback in his ads? I don’t recall seeing one that did, but I could just have missed it. I ask because Healey really hammers home the rollback in her ads and I imagine at this point, that is where most people are getting their information about the candidates. I would be interested to see how he does it in a 30 second spot.