WBUR did a story this morning on the Lt. Gov. race. The reporter, Bianca Vazquez Toness, talked to each of the candidates, as well as about the fact that a staggeringly large number of recent poll respondents have no opinion when asked about the race. It’s worth a listen, not least because AFAIK it’s the first non-cable broadcast story of any length about the LG race.
Also, Dan Payne’s rat-a-tat-tat op-ed today included some words on the LG race. His bottom line:
So, who wins? Four years ago, Chris Gabrieli spent almost $2 million and won three-way primary for lieutenant governor. See no reason why biggest spender won’t win this time. Murray has shot with big base and mayors. Silbert has tough paddling ahead.
Actually, I’m not sure where Payne got his $2 million number – seems low to me. A quick OCPF search reveals the following contributions from Gabrieli to his own campaign between the beginning of 2002 and the primary (which was on Sept. 17):
Looks $3.5 million-ish to me (for the detail-minded, $200,000 of that was marked “loan,” the rest was contributions). Anyway, the point is, it was a lot. To be sure, there were differences between 2002 and now – IIRC, O’Brien and Gabrieli had teamed up as a ticket before the primary. But Gabrieli actually got 60,000 more votes than O’Brien did (he got about 300,000 of the 650,000 LG votes cast – the rest went 200,000 to Lois Pines, who spent a total of about $435,000 on the race, and 150,000 to John Slattery, who spent about $370,000 – neither Pines nor Slattery contributed substantial amounts to their own campaigns). Take those 60,000 votes away from Gabrieli and give 55,000 of them to Lois Pines, and you’ve got an O’Brien-Pines ticket.
So, is Payne right? Will money win the LG primary? If not, what will?
UPDATE: Adam Reilly at the Phoenix also has a big article on the LGs. Sorry for not catching that sooner! Here’s his insightful-as-always take on a couple of possible tickets:
Tom Reilly and Tim Murray? Not the greatest combo, since it features two Irish pols from Central Massachusetts. Deval Patrick and Tim Murray? Way more intriguing: Murrays lunch bucketDem style could compliment Patricks liberal image, and his Worcester roots could help garner votes in a region that overwhelmingly broke for the Republicans in 2002. Chris Gabrieli and Deborah Goldberg? With that well-heeled ticket, Republican Kerry Healeys own deep pockets would suddenly matter a whole lot less. Reilly and Silbert? Nice gender and ideological balance, that. Patrick and Silbert? Plenty of brainpower there, but let the anti-lefty caricatures begin in earnest.
It would seem to me that the LG race can’t be won on the air waves but rather through a grass roots effort. Commercials and radio ads are already oversaturated with the 5 major players for governor. Voters who aren’t politically savy might even get confused by the ads on TV. Having people on the ground who know your candidate and what he or she stands for will elect the next lieutenant governor. The ground game is dominated by the Murray campaign as it increases it’s presence everyday throughout the state. Goldberg has ads and alot of money but what she doesn’t have is people that believe in her ideas her dedication and her ability to connect with the average voter. Though we as the voters can be dumb more often than not we can always tell when someone can understand are problems from our point of view and not the view that feels money runs all and ends all. This type of arrogance from our politicians is offensive and needs to end now.
that Reich, Tolman, O’Brien, and Birmingham were saturating the airwaves in 2002, just like Gabs, Patrick, Reilly, and Healey are doing now? I recall there being a lot of ads. Not sure if it was more, less, or about the same.
Any campaign that denies money works is in denial. Those without the resources must first recognize this and adjust to this reality. It seems to me that there are two candidates who have chosen a similar strategy in the face of well financed opponents; Patrick and Murray. Grass roots is cheaper, harder to do, requires a well executed plan, but can help bit into the effects of a carpet bomb air war. It will be interesting to see if the strategy in either case pays off. This comparison is offered with the qualifier that the Patrick grass roots effort and the Murray grass roots effort are different, but a race for Gov. and a race for Lt. Gov are different.
for those who aren’t aware of it: scott in belmont is associated with Tim Murray’s campaign (as his other posts make clear – he doesn’t hide it).
By your numbers, it looks like Gabrieli outspent Pines and Slatterly by almost 10 to 1 and he had the endorsement of O’Brien.
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According to Silbert and Murray, by early August they each raised about $850, 0000 and $750,000. Figure the last 7 weeks of fundraising pushes Silbert closer to a million and Murray at $900,000.
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With Goldberg’s $2.15 million, she doesn’t have much more than a $2 to $1 spending advantage. Not bad and a place I’d rather be in a campaign. But not overwhelming, like Gabrieli had.
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And Deb has proven lackluster thus far, certainly if you use the results of her last political outing at the convention.
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She still suffers from the inability of anyone to grasp what her candidacy is about and who she is. With Tim, it’s Mayor Murray of Worcester, champion of local issues. Andrea’s message is about jobs, always a strong card–and often a winner–to play. Deb message has drifted–local cities and towns, Stop & Shop, “take charge” activist–but nothing sticks. Her current spot, aside from totally misstating the truth, does not define who she is.
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Both Tim and Andrea will have twice the resources of Pines to get their simple messages across. So on election day, many voters will have been barged by a lot of nothing from Deb and a good amount of voters will have seen enough of Tim and Andrea to understand who they are.
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And remember, there is a fourth option for primary voters and that is to simply not vote for LG. And in 2002, more than 100,000 voters did not vote for LG–14% of the primary voters. (No link because I have PD 42 for 2002 next to the computer. Page 126.) So my point is, folks who don’t understand who Deb, Tim or Andrea are–won’t vote for any of them. Andrea and Tim have a far easier job defining who they are and making voters understand that. Deb thus far has failed miserably at that the entire race. And right now her spot is standard fair –so she still appears to be failing to tell people who she is.
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Money wont buy love and it cant make people love you, if you dont know who you are yourself.
A funny idea, that political ads are supposed to cause voters to love the candidate.
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Anyway, so based on your analysis of what happened in ’02, your advice to Deb is that she should spend all the way up to her self-imposed $4M limit, right?
…tell us why you want to be Lt. Governor and what you stand for in an easily comprehensable way–and only spend a million to win.
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As for spending more of her grandfather’s hard earned money, it would probably help about as much as another quart of ice cream after being dumped (trying to keep the money/love thing going).
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Seriously there are lots of people who spend but bucks and get creamed at the polls, just ask Gabrieli about is first time running. Money helps alot. And when you got the key thing in place: a quality candidate with a message that resonants–money makes the difference.
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Heck, it took Gabrieli more than $5 million on Tv since May to get neck and neck with Patrick–with a not great, but better messaging than Deb.
the physics of it is: can 10 pounds of ads fit into a 5 pound ad availability
That article confirms what Ive been saying all along, Deval and Andrea are too similiar to be a good team electorally, even if they could be the best for governing. Balancing a ticket will bring in a lot of people, and the best balance for Deval is Murray, the best balance for Gabs is Murray, and the best balance for Reilly is Silbert by far. Since Reilly will not likely be the victor on primary day the strategic decision if your a Gabs or a Patrick supporter is to go Murray.
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That said I think a lot of Deval supporters like Andrea and if the turnout is especially high for Deval she could squeak by on his coattails. If the turnout is average for the primary (nobody is paying attention with less than a month away so it could be possible) then I think Murray will win since their is a lot of cross support from the Gabs and Deval camps.