I came to this simple conclusion in the last few days and would like to explain my thoughts to anyone who is interested:
Based on all the recent polling and especially after Reillys scary performance at the Kennedy School – out dear Tom simply cannot win! On a contrary, Patrick and Gabrieli have some momentum: Patrick leads in every poll and Gabs is within the striking distance. Technically speaking, Reilly is in a mix as well but looking at how many of his supporters have jumped the ship lately, I wouldnt count him winning on 19th. So, were left with Deval and Chris and one of them will certainly win on Tuesday. Its no secret that Deval has the largest and most devoted field organization and with the predicted low turnout on Election Day, it gives him a clear advantage. Gabs on another hand can only win if some of Reillys hardcore folks abandon Tom and choose to vote for Chris.
So, why am I saying all of this well-known stuff a day before Primaries? Just to make sure that folks understand that a vote for Reilly is a vote for Healey. If AG supporters vote for Tom Deval wins and Gabs loses. Many of BMG contributors would welcome this scenario, even saying things like: Deval is more electable than Chris against Healey but Im convinced that were heading for another defeat in November. Media talked a lot about Deval being too left, unable to match Healeys millions, even being black as obstacles to his quest for Corner Office. Those are legitimate electability concerns and they were never addressed with effective arguments and specific strategies to make them a non-factor. But the saddest part of all – its not the end of the list. Again, I dont want to offend any of Patrick supporters, theyre certainly all good Democrats but we have to be reasonable in our enthusiasm for a candidate and that includes Deval.
Deval calculated correctly his chances in Democratic primary but went completely wrong in assuming he can beat Healey in general elections. It was so much easier with Democrats – being a smart man he is Deval quickly realized that his candidacy will generate enough support to win the primaries. A populist message is called populist because it appeals to masses, especially if the one preaching it is very good at this. Actually, he is unbelievably good at preaching since plenty of people even hear things, like justice in his voice. His race and his left wing positions (again, both will be issues in November) clearly got him a lot of support among African-American and minority voters as well as strong following among liberal Democrats. A good judge of characters, he saw early what all of us see now in Reilly a good DA who is an awful campaigner. Even a three person race didnt scare DP. Unless there is another Deval in the race, nobody couldve taken his base and opponents would have just split their vote canceling each other out But primaries are radically different from November elections. Just look at the numbers: 600,000 of Democrats and Unenrolled in primaries compare to typical 2 million of general election voters. To win a 3-way, you need about 250,000 votes in September vs. nearly 1 million in November (really a 2-way). In general elections, all these folks are not just devoted Democrats or democratically leaning Unenrolled. More than 60 % of them are Unenrolled and Republicans who strongly believe in Checks and Balances and repeatedly voted for a Republican Governor in recent elections to keep an eye on Democratic Legislature. With all the media hype for this race and tons of TV and radio ads, the lack of voter participation in primaries confirms what we knew all along the real elections are only in November, when voters will choose between Democrats and Republicans. Unfortunately, it became a tradition to give this job to Republicans. And its not just OBrien losing to Romney; its also a loss by Harshbarger to more than mediocre Cellucci 4 years before. Why do you think itll be different this time ? O I forgot, he is no ordinary leader If thats the case, why his magic only worked for no more than 40% of Democratic primary voters ?
Here are a few more facts (besides money and race), not fictions from Deval Experience that will handicap him in November (and of course, my vote is for Gabrieli):
– Backing a convicted rapists [Ben LaGuer] bid for parole and fighting to save two cop killers from death row, winning one of the appeals
– Disregarding the will of the voters on income tax roll-back
– Opposition to charter schools
– Support for in-state tuition for illegal immigrants
– His stands on Affirmative Action hiring a black candidate over equally qualified white applicant for the job.
So, good luck voting for Deval or Reilly, Lt. Governor Healey is clearly hoping for that. With her recent ad targeting only one candidate (Gabrieli), she clearly made her choice in this race
I don’t particularly care what the polls say. However, posts like this would motivate me to place Gabrieli third if we had instant runnoff voting.
Just my thoughts on the race Ill back whoever wins tomorrow.
I’m voting for Gabrieli. Thanks for taking the time to spell it out so clearly. Let me write and abreviated summary for those that don’t have time to read your post:
<
p>
1) In order to try to win in September, Deval Patrick has positioned himself to loose in November.
<
p>
2) AG Tom Reilly can’t win especially after his performance in the first debate. A vote for Reilly puts Deval in.
<
p>
3) If you want to win in November vote for Gabrieli in September!!!
Something like 85% of registered voters in Massachusetts are eligible to vote in the Democratic primary. If Gabrieli is not able to win there, why should I believe that he is able to win the general?
The primarys are dominated by a minority of more liberal voters, similar to the Democratic Party State Convention. They tend to be further to the left than the General Election voters. Therefore, we lose again in November.
<
p>
Having said that, I put myself in that category, except I want to win not just September but November. Therefore if you are interested in a phyrric victory vote for Reilly to deny the vote to Gabrieli or vote for Deval directly. If Deval can’t handle the critical comments of Reilly and Gabrieli, how’s he going to handle Kerry Healey?
<
p>
Bottom line, the higher the turnout the better Gabrilei does. You can help set the stage to win in November by voting for Gabrieli in the Primary.
But if Gabrieli is so popular with unenrolleds and moderates, why wouldn’t he be able to get them out now?
<
p>
I know you disagree, but my feeling is that whoever wins is by definition the most electable. If it’s Deval, great. If it’s Gabrieli, I’m fine with that. If it’s Reilly, well, at least we share the same zip code 😉
Regular people (especially unenrolled) just dont care about Democratic primaries and even worse are preset on Republicans in general election. That is why with all the hype about the current race you can see only a fraction of eligible voters coming out tomorrow. Patrick, Reilly, and Gabrieli dont excite mainstream voters and in order to reverse the Republican dominance on the Corner Office, a candidate has to be more mainstream on issues important to unenrolled, conservative, moderate-to-conservative, and even Republicans who are not all thrilled with Healey.
If Gabrieli needs the votes of unenrolled voters to win in November, but can’t get them in September, why should I believe he can get them in November? It’s not because of a lack of resources, it’s not because of a lack of exposure (he’s been on the air since May!). It’s because his campaign couldn’t get those voters out. If he can’t campaign well enough to win now, I just can’t muster up the faith that he would have been able to do it in November.
<
p>
Of course, if his strategy leads him to be successful tomorrow, more power to him. But don’t tell me that even if he comes in last tomorrow, he would still have been our best chance in November.
<
p>
I can’t talk about this any more, it’s giving me a headache. I think we need another tense in English for talking about events that would have happened if future events turn out differently from the way they might still happen.
600,000 predicted to vote tomorrow. About 2 million voted in 2004 general elections. Most of the folks think that the real race is in November when you can compare a Republican to a Democrat. Nobody can change the trend I guess, even charismatic Deval.
Read up on what just happened in Rhode Island last week. Lincoln Chafee won because the National Republicans came in and found 10,000 or so independents who sometime in the past 20 years supported Republicans, but weren’t likely GOP primary voters. They got those people out to the polls on primary day. Gabrieli has the resources to do that level of microtargeting, and there’s no shortage of independents in MA who have supported Democrats in the past.
Your post makes some logical points but fails to analyze the current poltiical climate nationwide and in our state – the mess the GOP is in right now, linking Healy to the war, cheney, and other failed GOP ideas, the list goes on and on. You mention Deval’s race as a factor but do not mention Healy’s sex as a factor so you are assuming there is a population large enough to vote against a black man in favor of a white woman to swing the election? That’s hard to back up with any statistical proof.
<
p>
Some things that would help Deval would be a strong backbone and charisma – unlike any candidate we have seen on a local or national stage in sometime. Broad grassroots support and organizing skills. A business background that could appeal to moderates. An adorable factor that appeals to women. The list goes on and on.
but not all of it. Deval certainly has strong leadership qualities, charisma, broad grassroots support, etc. His life story is certainly an incredible journey. His achievements speak for themselves. He is a true leader.
<
p>
What I disagree is that it will be enough for him to win in November. The reasons are all mentioned in my original post. Also, an attempt to paint Healey as your typical GOP candidate will certainly work with people on a left (but they will support a Democrat anyway) but will not transfer into anything meaningful with moderate voters. People know that Bush is Bush and Healey is Healey
<
p>
The gender will play a role but not as big as the race. When picking between a white women and a black man most will choose a man. There is no statistics to back this statement just simple reasoning. I dont want to sound like racist but for the point of our discussion, I can say that regular white mainstream voters would prefer to be associated with a white women rather than a black man.
First, I think that this is a different year which will yield different results for Republicans in MA. I think that you’re right about the diehard Republicans not caring about what a mess the GOP has made in MA or nationally, but I think that voters are smart enough to see what happened with Mitt, his shift to Religious Right and general absenteeism will not be lost on many moderates and unenrolleds.
<
p>
More importantly, to say that white mainstream voters would prefer to be associated with a white women over a black man is completely unfounded. It reeks of ‘Race isn’t an issue to me, but well some people would never vote for a black man’, and it sucks.