I’ve posted a letter from an expert on crime statistics claiming that the Berkshire Eagle got its facts seriously wrong in endorsing the incumbent DA in Berkshire County.
The Eagle editorial claims that
The most recent FBI figures … indicate that violent crime in Pittsfield is down from the previous year…
which they admit is at variance from the claims made by supporters of the challenger, Judy Knight.
So, my title here is a bit of a play on words; they endorsed the wrong candidate, as far as I’m concerned, but do I really think they’ll admit their error? Yeah, right!
Please share widely!
It seems clear that the Eagle was probably wrong in its assertion about the crime rate (no big surprise) but, based on the background info provided in your post, it also appears that the Knight campaign claim about the sharp increase in crime is based on two data points: crime statistics from only two years.
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I took only one statistics course in grad school, but I thought that we are supposed to avoid making generalizations about trends until there are at least three data points. (And even then, the trend’s reliability may be suspect.)
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Another issue that people might raise with this whole line of logic is whether the D.A. can be held responsible for the (apparent) rise in crime in the area. You’re an economist, Michael. Do you think the President should always claim credit or take blame for good or bad economic trends?
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I know that some people in the region have been claiming that crime has risen since the new House of Corrections was built. I don’t know whether it’s true, but there is some sense in the community that some problematic people come to visit incarcerated friends or family members, and decide they like the area as a place to settle down.
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Books such as Random Family, by Adrian Nicole LeBlanc, offer anecdotal evidence about NYC gangsta culture moving “upstate,” just over the NY state line from the Berkshires, as families with problems seek a chance to start over in a new place – for right or wrong reasons.
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I don’t think these new problems came to the area (or arose here) because people think the current DA (Mr. Capeless) is a softie, or that the problems increased because he focused on his courtroom responsibilities instead of putting his time and effort into social programs. Then again, my opponent blamed me for a perceived increase in crime in 2003, and he apparently scored some points with some voters.
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I think Ms. Knight has brought up some important issues in this campaign. I don’t think the crime statistics particularly strengthen her appeal.