I doubt it.
Conventional wisdom: Gabs has more money and is trying to play to the center (pushing the immigration issue, and sorta kinda favoring a tax rollback, maybe). Also, recent polling shows all three Dem candidates beating Healey, but shows Gabs with the biggest lead. Therefore, the CW goes, Healey is worried about him and is running a negative attack ad against him to try to get Deval Patrick nominated instead.
Adam Reilly has a different, and more persuasive, take:
Scenario 1: Democrats uncritically accept the picture of Gabrieli painted by Republican Kerry Healey, decide he’s just out to make a quick buck, and decide not to vote for him on September 19.
Scenario 2: Democrats generally ignore Healey’s ad when they vote next week.
Scenario 3: Democrats conclude that Gabrieli is the Democrat Healey fears most, and undecideds/weak Patrick backers/weak Reilly backers subsequently vote for him on the 19th.
Scenario 1 strikes me as unlikely. Scenario 2 is a possibility. But Scenario 3 seems downright probable. Which makes me wonder: what if Healey’s actual goal is making Gabrieli’s nomination more likely, not less?
Call me zany. But I think that’s a real possibility.
It’s all reminiscent of an old story – one that has already played a role in recent political history…
“I’ve got you this time, Brer Rabbit,” said Brer Fox, jumping up and shaking off the dust. “You’ve sassed me for the very last time. Now I wonder what I should do with you?”
Brer Rabbit’s eyes got very large. “Oh please Brer Fox, whatever you do, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”
“Maybe I should roast you over a fire and eat you,” mused Brer Fox. “No, that’s too much trouble. Maybe I’ll hang you instead.”
“Roast me! Hang me! Do whatever you please,” said Brer Rabbit. “Only please, Brer Fox, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”
“If I’m going to hang you, I’ll need some string,” said Brer Fox. “And I don’t have any string handy. But the stream’s not far away, so maybe I’ll drown you instead.”
“Drown me! Roast me! Hang me! Do whatever you please,” said Brer Rabbit. “Only please, Brer Fox, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”
“The briar patch, eh?” said Brer Fox. “What a wonderful idea! You’ll be torn into little pieces!”
Grabbing up the tar-covered rabbit, Brer Fox swung him around and around and then flung him head over heels into the briar patch. Brer Rabbit let out such a scream as he fell that all of Brer Fox’s fur stood straight up. Brer Rabbit fell into the briar bushes with a crash and a mighty thump. Then there was silence.
Brer Fox cocked one ear toward the briar patch, listening for whimpers of pain. But he heard nothing. Brer Fox cocked the other ear toward the briar patch, listening for Brer Rabbit’s death rattle. He heard nothing.
Then Brer Fox heard someone calling his name. He turned around and looked up the hill. Brer Rabbit was sitting on a log combing the tar out of his fur with a wood chip and looking smug.
“I was bred and born in the briar patch, Brer Fox,” he called. “Born and bred in the briar patch.”
And Brer Rabbit skipped away as merry as a cricket while Brer Fox ground his teeth in rage and went home.
“Oh yes, Deval Patrick! Tom Reilly! Nominate whoever you please,” said Ker Healey, “only please don’t nominate Chris Gabrieli!”
Ginny Buckingham, the Republican’s Republican and an experienced political operative, has been onto this for weeks now. She’s seen enough races to know how much of a threat Deval Patrick is to Kerry Healey, and why.
Let’s not see Ker Healey skipping away after the Democratic primary, as merry as a cricket.
UPDATE: In response to some of the comments: I should have made my basic point clearer, which is this: vote for the guy you like best. They can all beat Kerry Healey. Don’t try to put yourself in the head of voters who don’t think the way you do, or who have different priorities. A lot of us – myself included – fell into the “electability trap” with John Kerry, and look how that turned out. Vote for your candidate because he believes what you believe, and let the chips fall where they may.
…and if the ad were going after Patrick, we wouldn’t see crowing about how he’s now the man to beat?
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Healey must be really scared of Deval, because he’s been beneath Healey’s notice all along — she blazed after Reilly with both barrels at the GOP convention, and now she’s firing on Gabrieli.
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Or it might just be because a grade-schooler knows exactly how to attack Deval..the same way GOP candidates have buried Democrats in the past: soft on crime, with your money in their pocket.
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We’re all just seeing what we want to see at this point.
Is about as accurate as that ‘Osama wants you to vote for Kerry’ bullshit.
For instance: Kerry Healey has in fact determined that Gabrielli would be toughest to beat. But, she’s wrong. (Who says she knows best?)
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Or: Kerry Healey has in fact determined that Patrick would be toughest to beat, but she doesn’t want to add to his momentum by singling him out. So, she is running anti-Gabrielli adverts that are actually kind of lame, as clever cover for the really negative anti-Patrick spots she will run this weekend.
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Or (your theory here)
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I do think it is odd that she is going negative before the party nominates its candidate.
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More idle speculation here.
It’s an interesting theory, but the trouble with second-guessing like this is it’s just as easy to third-guess, fourth-guess…personally, I plan to vote for the candidate I think will be the best Governor, not (necessarily) the candidate I think Healey’s most scared of. After all: we like to talk about how out of touch the Romney/Healey administration is, so why should we care which Democrat they think will be easiest to beat?
And I, too, am voting for the one who I believe will govern best.
on your “Princess Bride” reference. Well done.
I wonder if the candidates for governor were to be compared to the three gang members in the Princess Bride….
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I’m going to go with Gabs as Vizzini. Deval would be the nimble, strongwilled and loyal Inigo Montoya, and Reilly would be the tough guy Fezzik (who underneath is just a teddy-bear.)
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Or would Gabrieli be Fezzik (Andre the Giant) because of his size? Hmm…
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Okay, call me tired after hours of data entry for Deval.
I think Gabs would be Miracle Max, Reilly would be Prince Humperdink, and Deval would be….
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the Princess Bride Buttercup?
Deval’s Grassroots campaign is unlike the other campaigns the Republicans have beaten recently.
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The important characteristic is that Deval’s supporters are not easily discouraged by negative ads.
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And negative ads are all she’s got.
And if she can boost the profile of a Democrat with softer numbers and a lesser GOTV campaign, well, why shouldn’t she? She’s in politics to win.
Sure, you can turn and twist this any way you want.
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However, if you leave your Deval-tainted glasses at home, you will notice something in the latest poll numbers:
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1) The worst candidate for Healey is Gabrieli
2) Her numbers are unchanged for Reilly or Deval, apparently, only Gabrieli is able to take away votes from her directly.
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So maybe, only maybe, she indeed might be afraid of Gabs. Just a thought.
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A quick survey amongst my friends (sample size = 3) shows me that at 67% (= 2) belive Healey would probably win over Deval. Only a very small minority (= 0) believes that Healey can win over Gabrieli. This survey has a +/-100% though on 0% confidence.
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BTW: Incredible grassroots on Deval’s part. Many people holding his sign on intersections this morning.
And its not so far fetched. As I pointed out in an earlier reply to a “Gabrieli must be the man because Healey fears him” commentary, Healey calls Gabrieli a “Beacon Hill insider” in her ad. Her campaign loves taking that position against an opponent. That’s why they ran the ad. It will play very well with all the voters around the state who are fed up with our legislative system (which is, at last count, about everybody).
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We are in for a long six weeks of this type of bashing if Gabrieli wins. Lets face it, although he’s not a career politician, the only reason Gabrieli was allowed to get into this race was that Reilly was self destructing and the power brokers made room for Gabrieli because they fear Patrick. Healey will be able to tell that story over and over.
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As for me, I’m voting for: a. the guy I believe in; b. the guy who is most likely to kick butt in November; and c. the guy most likely to effect change in the way Massachusetts government operates.
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Check out my post of this morning for more of this brilliant analysis. (I’m on vacation and its raining)
“the only reason Gabrieli was allowed to get into this race was that Reilly was self destructing and the power brokers made room for Gabrieli because they fear Patrick.”
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Even through Deval’s looking glass, Reilly wasn’t in any real trouble until (relatively) recently- a long time after Gabs had already jumped into the fray.
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The only reason Gabs was allowed to get into this race is because he decided he wanted to. The man is a millionaire- he doesn’t really need to ask permission from anyone to run a campaign.
People were saying the same things right after the convention. It’s not a new idea that sprang up only after Reilly’s recent troubles. Reilly’s almost acceptance then rejection of Gabrieli, his disastrous St. Fleur announcement, and his crushing defeat at the caucuses, all came before the convention, and all showed that he was not the dominant candidate many insiders had expected him to be.
First, the Reilly campaign has been in trouble since the St. Fleur incident and the ass kicking in the caucuses. I was there, and that’s pretty much exactly when I saw people who would have backed Reilly through a trouncing actually considering and pledging to Deval as a candidate.
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Second, the reason Gabs is in this campaign isn’t just because he decided he wanted to run. There’s a number of reasons for it, and I’m sure the one you mentioned is on the list but…That alone wouldn’t have been enough considering the time at which he entered the race. I think he was asked by the insiders to make the move because Deval was gaining on King Reilly, he accepted because of the LG shaft from Reilly, and he was able to make the ballot due to DiMasi and Co. moving enough votes his way to get him over 15 percent. You mention that he doesn’t need permission and you’re right, but notice he didn’t make the move until realizing that Reilly blew him off for the LG selection.
with the Healey/Romney Administration Tar Baby analogy. A sticky situation indeed, Mitt… I mean Healey.
Sorry to insult everyone’s intelligence with the headline, but I think we’re being ‘way too analytical here.
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The most compelling reason why Kerry Healey doesn’t want to it to be Gabrielli she opposes is because he’s got the money to fight back. Or at least she thinks he can, or thinks he would. So do the powers that be in the state Dem party: Gabrieli’s willingness to spend for his own election efforts was cited early on, around convention time in June, as an asset — Gabrieli can support his own campaign efforts, so he won’t bankrupt the party’s coffers (such as they are). For the party management (and the party bean-counters) that must make Gabrieli a pretty appealing option. For precisely the same reason, Healey doesn’t want to oppose him because money buys votes. Clearly that’s where she figures she can wage this battle too. That’s why I believe she’s running the negative TV ad at the moment against Gabrieli (and nary a [pubic] word said against Deval).
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Full disclosure: I’m an ardent Deval supporter.
Who’s bringing pubic issues into this? I thought we had enogh of that with Clarence Thomas.
You need a lot of dedicated supporters to win in the general. And Healey understands that the most dedicated Democrats are committed Deval supporters. Nothing would take the air out of the Democratic Party more than a Deval Patrick loss. Same reason we lost against Romney 4 years ago. Want a repeat of 2002? Then vote Gabrieli.
Lt. Gov. Kerry Murphy Healey’s attacking Gabrieli because she’s afraid of Deval Patrick (but not Tom Reilly?).
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Somehow, you guys seem to be able to make EVERTHING about Deval, no matter what.
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NEWSFLASH: It ALL isn’t about Deval…
I expect Healey’s people are smart enough to realize that an anti-Gabrieli ad from her will serve to push some Democrats and Independents toward Gabrieli in the primary. So, why would they want to do that? My guess is that they see the polls showing Patrick opening a lead and want to shake things up — probably the last thing they want to see happen is a big victory in the primary for any of the three. Better to have Patrick or Gabrieli or Reilly win a narrow victory, which would cut into the momentum of the winner.
NOTE: DEVAL PATRICK VOLUNTEER/SUPPORTER ON THE FLOOR…INCLUDES SHAMELESS SELF-AGGRANDIZING LINKS TO PREVIOUS POSTING.
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Day after day, these three things I say:
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1) Gabrieli has the WEAKEST of the two, maybe even the three relevant positions in the Democratic primary. He is Healey Lite, minus the Republican offset of the legislature, the government experience, or the hard assed criminal justice work.
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2) Other than the usual scare tactics, Healey will ONLY TALK ABOUT TAXES. As this blog has pointed out, Gabrieli’s tax plan is soft, and people will not respond to his likely pleas that he will “work with the legislature to cut taxes” when Healey can simply “fight the tax and spend legislature.” Deval’s plan is better.
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ps – If you think Chris’ spending wisdom won’t be questioned after dropping 11 mill in the primary, think again.
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3) Deval has tremendous ground support that Healey can’t match, unless that kid going around filming Gabrieli is really, really, really good.
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Thus, we can conclude that Healey has naught to fear from Gabrieli. In the BEST poll, Gabs is ten points back. Why would Healey waste money and time except to raise his profile?
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If you want real conspiracy theory, lets ask about how the Gabrieli team was so johnny on-the-spot in unleashing a full-bore media circus response to the Healey ad?
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Despite the wonderful democratic track record when opting for middling candidates, I think I will take my ballot and stuff it for Deval Patrick.
now that’s a conspiracy theory! 😉
Why? He plays on Republican turf with Republican issues using the Republican system of power (money and television). That give Healey a home-field advantage through Election Day.
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I’m not saying that’s what she actually thinks. I have no idea about that. Maybe she genuinely supposes these ham-handed attacks will hurt Gabrielli in the primary (though the reverse seems likelier). Maybe she just can’t believe that anyone else could win the primary and wants to get started early.
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But were I her, I’d pick a fight with Gabrielli. Which she’s done.
I saw the Healey ad today while at the waiting room at my doctor’s office. When I saw that it was from Healey, I had a moment of “what the???” and then I thought, “Democrats will resent seeing this and want to support Gabrieli; I bet this means Healey would like to run against Gabrieli and is building up his image as her opponent.” Because that’s the subtext of this ad: Healey vs. Gabrieli.
Wow…does everyone in the Deval camp here have to check their logic at the door. He has managed to do the nearly impossible…convince the population at large he is a progressive when he really isn’t any more progressive than Gabrieli or Reilly. (Good strategy though in a three way primary.) Last night he took the same position as the others on charter schools, MCAS graduation requirements and took a gratuitous swipe at the nurses. (Great progressive … lets pick on the nurses over a bill that is dead for this legislative session…and appease the editorial writers at the Boston Globe.) Only some Jesuit scholars somewhere will be able to figure out the differences on merit pay for school teachers.
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So what does this all mean? The only hope for lightweight Healy is for Patrick to get the nod next Tuesday. She can run against the liberal candidate on taxes, immigration and crime. This is not rocket science the most obvious explanation is usually the correct one. Healy is attacking Gabrieli because she does not want to run in the general election against him. The Governors race is the only serious race the Republicans are running this year. They are going to do their best to win. This week that strategy means attacking Gabrieli.
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Ron
She headed the Dem gubernatorial ticket four years ago. Yeah, the one with Gabs playing second fiddle (except when it came to money. My how things have changed?). Prior to his decision to jump into this race, Gabs wanted to be two things (politically speaking) – Tom Reilly’s Lt. Governor and a bit earlier Shannon O’Brien’s Lt. Governor.
If Gabs is the nominee, in addition to messages like “don’t trust Dems like rich, insider Gabrieli on taxes”, I reckon the name Shannon P. O’Brien will be dragged from the political history books and the tattoo magazines to a front-and-center position in Healey’s attack ads. O’Brien didn’t lose, despite what the State Dem Party would like us to believe, because of money (if it was then why was Gabs on the ticket and why didn’t he throw in another $5 million to close the deal?).
She lost because she did not successfully challenge the accusation that she was a member of the Gang-of-Three (re: insider) and because people grew to dislike her (“she reminds me of my ex-wife” was uttered by more than a few waivering Dems down the stretch). Her debate performances were poor and she sounded more shrill as Election Day approached. In a post-election survey she was, if not the least-liked, one of the most disliked politicians in the state.
Romney successfully (although inaccurately) painted O’Brien as a shrill, bossy insider who would allow Finneran and Trav (the brother of her 1st Lt. at the Treasurer’s office) to take care of their buddies and screw the rest of us. The lack of money was a straw man for a campaign that, after the primary, didn’t adjust for brutality of the national-level general campaign run by the Romney operation.
A lot happened and didn’t happen in that campaign. O’Brien and Gabs (might this be called Gabs v. Healey II?) could have won. Gabs was part of it, a big part when it came to money.
The point is O’Brien is baggage for Gabs. His current opponents have had the good grace not to mention her but leave no doubt, the O’Brien/Gabrieli ticket will make a comeback and Gabs will be the worse for it.