Holy Toledo. With the big caveat that there’s no doubt these numbers are due in part to Deval Patrick’s unexpectedly phenomenal win Tuesday night, the resulting press coverage, and general post-primary euphoria … still. This first poll, just released by CBS4 and SurveyUSA, is pretty awesome – and, as we know, SurveyUSA has established a solid track record in MA elections.
608 likely voters. Poll conducted 9/19-21/06. MOE: +/- 3.9%. More on interpreting the MOE.
Deval Patrick: 64%
Kerry Healey: 25%
Christy Mihos: 5%
Grace Ross: 1%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 2%
Here’s a particularly interesting nugget from the survey summary:
Energized, 87% of MA Democrats tell SurveyUSA they vote Democrat, in an election today. By contrast, on the campaign’s first two days, 65% of Republicans vote Republican. 27% of Republicans cross over and vote for the Democrat.
Also impressive is Patrick’s 66%-23% lead among self-described “moderates,” and 54%-30% lead among “independents.” And President Bush’s 26% job approval rating (as reported in this poll) surely isn’t helping Ms. “I support our administration, as you know” either.
Of course, there is no doubt that these numbers will tighten substantially over the coming weeks. Still, to anyone who thinks there’s no way Patrick can win this thing, get this through your skull: Patrick can win. There is a lot to do between now and Nov. 7, but this is a winnable election. All you have to do is try.
is very low. That seems to say this is Deval’s race to lose. Lt. Governor Kerry Healey would have to peel off another 20% to 26% out of Deval, depending on how the two others do. Question and idea how “deep” each of the candidate’s support is?
<
p>
Hard to say. I’m assuming that a lot of this is a post-primary victory bump, and therefore not particularly deep, but I remember people claiming that Patrick’s support in the primary wasn’t deep beyond a small group of core liberals. We know how that turned out.
SUSA proved itself to be pretty accurate in the primary, despite some people’s constant refrain that robo-polls are worthless.
<
p>
Still, 64%! That will probably be the highest Deval will poll at, but he’s got to fall nearly 20 points for Healey to even have a crack at him from here.
<
p>
What does that mean? $11 million worth of attack ads from now until November. Healey’s got to eat into that support and raise Patrick’s negatives.
what are these poll numbers going to look like in a couple of weeks(even next week after the 1st debate) when all the candidates are going to be seen and heard a lot more. While I believe this poll might be an accurate assesment could some of it be because the democratic primary just ended and the name most people have heard over the last week is Deval’s. The thing that sticks out to me and makes me think that is the low number of undecideds. You very rarely have that this far away from an election. It is normally 10-15%.
Bush’s 26% approval rating in this pole is surprising. I thought I read yesterday that it was upwards of 44%.
I don’t doubt that his approval here is way lower.
26% is from the poll itself, they did a Bush approval rating question for MA likely voters.
The President’s approval numbers are somewhere around 40%, plus or minus a few points depending on the poll. Some always track higher, others track lower. Strategic Vision and Fox news tend to track high (surprise). I usually look to Zogby for the best number.
<
p>
In Massachusetts, a 26% approval rating for Bush is about where I would expect it to be, based on prior polls.
… IIRC in Rhode Island its below 20%.
that is it that high.
Here’s a little election strategy.
<
p>
You know all those cars with Massachusetts plates that still have Bush-Cheney stickers?
<
p>
FIND THEM!
<
p>
Track down the owners. Then, find a fresh-faced young Republican looking person to ring the doorbell and offer to put a Healey-Hillman sticker on the car. Place Healey-Hillman sticker right next to the W sticker.
Or give ’em a picture of this!
thanks for the laugh Charley!
That was Bob’s invention. And I curse him every day for it.
This race isn’t going to be close. Deval will win with at least 50% of the voters.
<
p>
Now, I’m saying that with this caveat: I expect Deval’s supporters (including myself) won’t stop working hard just because we’re winning in the polls. We didn’t stop working in the primary; we’re not going to stop working in the general either.
I’m a bit surprised Mihos is only at 5%. I’d expect him to do a bit better then that, mostly taking votes from Kerry Healy.
<
p>
It’s going to be interesting to see if Patrick can appeal to the center while keeping Ross from taking too many votes from his left. I’m pretty sure he can, the whole “hopeful outsider” thing should bring in the mushy centrists. Even if it doesn’t work on the conservative “don’t split our party” statehouse loons. đŸ™‚
the media starts mentioning him as part of the race. For the most part when you watch the news or listen to the radio all thay talk about is Healey and Patrick and really no one else. I think once the first debate is held you may see a change in that number. The same as I think you will Patricks numbers drop a little between now and the election since he is getting a big primary bump and as been covered in the media the most.
The metro has been pumping Mihos pretty consistantly. Big articles every time he dumps cash in the race.
It’s funny you say that, because I literally just heard Mihos on WBZ- they tracked him down to get a comment on the Phil Johnston furor- and my initial thought was “Hmm, that’s the first time I’ve heard him lumped in with the other two candidates as a legitimate option.”
<
p>
He also pledged to spend $50K/day on ads from now until the election, so I suspect Christy will move well beyond 5% when all is said and done.
Not only is the Bush approval rating dragging down Kerry Healey, she’s got a Romney problem as well. Jon Keller looks at the latest SurveyUSA data that shows Romney with a 52% – 44% unfavorable rating.
<
p>
It’s not easy being Kerry Healey.
<
p>
Needless to say, this is before the nasty media kicks in. When the race inevitably tightens, there will be some in the press telling us to push the panic button, doubtless because they want something to write about. No big deal. Just don’t expect a cakewalk.
When you look at the splits, one that jumped out at me was by party, Mihos was drawing 3% equally from D’s and R’s, but 8% from Independents. I raise the issue as to whether, even though it is a small amount (take nothing for granted), Mihos’ best group is also a demographic that Deval beats Healey 54-30.
<
p>
If you think this lead means anything right now, you probably also have fond memories of President Dukakis’ inauguration đŸ˜‰
I don’t agree. Unenrolleds breaking to Mihos are likely to be the folks who don’t like Democrats but find it socially unacceptable to enroll as a Republican. When they get to the polls, they’re the first to vote for Cellucci, Romney, et al.
I think Mihos will be the choice of the Parente/Travis Democrats, long time voters whose dead grandmother in County Kildare won’t let them vote GOP, but who are afraid of Deval’s ‘creative’ tax plans.
Seeing as Deval is winning the group as a whole, I’m not sure how one does anything other than speculate on a small subgroup of those people. I guess I’m just taking the big pic view that since Deval is winning the group as a whole, anyone that takes votes in that group as a whole may be hurting Deval more. To me, it matters from the perspective that every vote is going to count.
Wow. I second everyone’s call to remain vigilant and of course it will tighten, but even so, this is a huge lead. Dukakis’ lead over Bush Sr. in 1988 that dissapeared was mentioned – but that was a 17% lead blown… Deval would have to blow it a lot worse to lose this one.
<
p>
There seem to be a lot of fundamentals that all seem to be breaking the right way:
<
p>
* There were two eye popping aspects of Deval’s win on Tuesday, almost all of the MSM focus was on his margin of victory, but equally important was the SIZE of turnout – not only were Patrick supporters more motivated to turnout to vote but there were A LOT MORE of them than most political commentators realized.
<
p>
* With the Murray / McGovern team, things should turn out much better in Central MA for the Dems this year than 4 years ago.
<
p>
* I live on the Cape, and I can tell you that Gloria Larson is the highest profile and most influential Republican down here who is not an officeholder, that she has come out for Deval is huge.
<
p>
* Speaking of the Cape – thank you Christy. His TV ads have started and will continue. Yes he will take votes out of Deval’s hide too, and with Deval’s lead that might be more votes than many of us might previously have thought. Yet there is no question in my mind that his role will hurt Healey more, and he’s tough on “the administration’s handling of the big dig” – and that’s the one thing he’s known for in the public eye so they will assume he knows what he’s talking about.
<
p>
* The Senior Senator is burying (for now) his Cape Wind hatchet and is showing the love for Deval, even holding a fundraiser at the compound in a couple of weeks. All the party’s heavyweights who were not supporting Deval in the primary ALL seem to be showing a lot of CLASS and pragmatism and seem to be working hard to make Deval the next Gov.
<
p>
* Star power coming to town to help Deval – Clinton, Obama…
<
p>
* One of the best chances a candidate has to reverse a big lead is to win the debates – who really thinks that Healey will be able to do that? I think she will beat the low expectations many will have for her debate performances, and on a great night might tie him – but beat him? Not unless Deval is running a high fever at the time…
<
p>
Who will be here to campaign for Muffy? Cheney? Santorum?
But according to the Herald we may be getting McCain, Guiliani and Pataki, etc.
My stars and garters! How will we ever match the sheer charisma and appeal of the man so unpopular in New York, he declined to run again rather then be humiliated by Elliot Spitzer?
<
p>
The man has a 45% approval rating in NY! That’s a whole point better than our own Mitt Romney!
<
p>
Seriously, Pataki is a joke.
<
p>
As for Guiliani, is he really that popular in Massachusetts?
It’s hard to think of a national GOoPer who could do Healey any good ’round here. McCain is one – but you have to wonder whether he’s really going to interrupt his presidential campaign to come to the home turf of one of his rivals and stump for his replacement. If Healey loses, Romney looks bad, which helps McCain.
Do you really think McCain is really going to be that popular around these parts? Today he showed his spinelessness by allowing Bush to set a precedent that torture is legal and any member of the Geneva Convention can redefine international law to suit their own personal desires. Any respect I once had for him has finally vaporized.
If Healey loses, Romney looks bad, which helps McCain.
<
p>
The only reason McCain would come up here is so that he gets some more exposure in a media market that covers New Hampshire.
I’ll lead the protest with signs and waterboards.
<
p>
That’s not something he’d want seen on TV in NH households…
Romney doesn’t travel unless it’s out of state. Chances are, the last time Mitt was in Berkshire County was 2002. Those folks, fed by the Albany media, probably think George Pataki is their governor.
The only reason why I even REMEMBER Whitman is because I used to live in New Jersey. How much could she bring to an event?
<
p>
GOOGLE SEARCH ALERT
Been looking for something with Bush and Healey. Can’t find anything on Google. Did the Republicans purge the Internet of all common images?
I’ve been eagerly awaiting the new poll, and wouldn’t have guessed more than a 20% lead, never mind almost 40%. I would caution that it seems that SurveyUSA slightly oversampled Democrats (should be more Indys) and women. Nevertheless, it’s pretty clear that Deval has a very significant lead. Good news tends to spawn more good news, and I think we’ll see more $$$ flowing into the campaign after this poll.
<
p>
It’s a testament to the amazing campaign Patrick has run — he’s managed to get liberals as well as moderate/conservatives on board already (as evidenced by the primary results), and he’s hitting all the right tones directly after the primary (for example, by diffusing the “liberal” label pre ad-blitz by stressing that he’s an independent fighter, etc.). Again, I don’t really see the “crazy-eyed liberal!” label sticking to Patrick, given his background.
<
p>
I think Patrick would have matched up well even with a Weld or Cellucci. I’m not going to get too overconfident, but let’s be honest — Healey is no Weld or Cellucci. This race will undoubtedly get tighter, but I think this race can move into the “likely Democratic” category now.
What is the actual proportion of Dems-Repubs-Indies? What was in 2002, for example?
<
p>
Seems to me I hear an awful lot that Dems outnumber Repubs 3-to-1, but there are more Indies than either.
<
p>
So the number of Repubs can’t be more than 14% (leading to Dems with 42% and thus Indies at 44%). Assuming the above factoid to be literally true, of course, which it may not be.
<
p>
So what are the numbers? We can easily massage the results to match the break-down we think exists…
The numbers I always remember is 35% Dem, 15% GOP, and 50% unenrolled. Don’t remember where I heard it originally though…
Is that a breakdown of enrollment? Actual turnout may vary – unenrolleds are more likely to show up only for Presidential elections.
and note that this SurveyUSA poll was of “likely” voters. So you are right that this probably explains some of the discrepancy.
<
p>
Also, I’d think that if enthusiasm for Patrick is as strong as this poll suggests, a few % of independents responded “Democrat” for the purposes of that poll question, even if they are officially registered as unenrolled.
…based on exit polling. Unenrolled voters still make up the plurality of voters, but they only turn out at about 40% of their total.
<
p>
I don’t remember the exact numbers, but Republicans usually turn out in higher percentages and end up being about 19% or so of the election day voting population.
According to the Sec. of State’s numbers here, the current breakdown is about 37% Dem, 12.7% Rep., and 49.5% unenrolled. The SurveyUSA poll had a breakdown of 46% Dem, 17% Rep., and 37% Ind.
<
p>
So it seems a bit heavy on Democrats (and even Republicans) at the expense of Independents. I can’t seem to find numbers regarding the typically male/female election day voting breakdown, though my thought is that it should be more like 48/52 male/female rather than the 44/56 we see in the Survey USA poll.
<
p>
All this said, even if you weight the numbers accordingly, Deval still has a huge lead among independents (and men). We’re still likely talking about a lead of close to 30% here.
That’s useful analysis!
As Sco points out in the comment above, the percentage of unenrolled voters who actually vote may be lower than the corresponding percentage for those enrolled in a party. The weighting in the survey may be reasonable. Of course the results of this last primary remind us that past turnout may not be a good predictor of current turnout.
<
p>
Also, that capital “I” is a spelling mistake because it suggests that those voters whom we sometimes refer to as “independent” belong to a party.
Congratulations to Team Patrick and BMG for a successful campaign,I will be supporting Patrick/Murray in November.I think its going to be close in November and everyone will have to work hard because these poll numbers may not be accurate.I have heard from good sources,and I had my suspicions,that Healy turned out a lot of unenrolleds to vote for Deval,because Reilly had no chance anyway and she would have lost handily to Chris.Already,5 people who I had for Gabby have told me they won’t vote for Deval,the reason I keep hearing is too much like Dukakis.I,m not trying to be negative just realistic,I want Deval Patrick to be our next Governor and I plan on helping the delegation here in Dracut as much as I can.I can tell you that Team Gabrieli is 100% behind Deval now we all got the e-mail from our constituent director asking to help out in Chelmsford.Anyway,Together We Can so lets do it!
Hi Howie,
<
p>
I’m not much of a blogger but I saw your post and thought it would be o.K. to contact you. My name is Pat Commane and I’m Deval Patrick’s regional coordinator covering Sue Tucker’s senate district. Thanks for posting that as a Gabrieli supporter you are now stepping up to the plate to support Patrick. Your Democratic town chair, Greg Pappas, is a terrific guy and a loyal dem. He too, was supporting Gabs and is now working hard to elect Deval.
Let me know if there are any resources that you need or want more info on how to get involved with Deval’s campaign in Dracut. I know it’s not easy when your candidate doesn’t win (we’ve all been through it on the national stage).
Feel free to contact me at 978 360-4736.