Jon Keller has just revealed on air the results from the latest CBS4/Boston Globe poll: Deval Patrick’s lead is growing.
Patrick: 46%
Gabrieli: 25%
Reilly: 18%
MOE: +/- 4.4%. The poll was completed on Friday, after the last debate.
Also, the poll shows that Patrick is viewed as the most electable of the three Democrats. [See “Further Update” below for some numbers on that.]
Fascinating. A real validation of John Walsh’s strategy. But, of course, it is not over yet!
UPDATE: Here’s a bit more detail, from channel 4’s website. There will be much more in tomorrow’s Globe.
MA Likely Dem. Primary Voters, September 2006
Reilly 18%
Patrick 46%
Gabrieli 25%
Of those polled who said they would “definitely vote” (September Poll):
Reilly 20%
Patrick 47%
Gabrieli 26%
Of those polled who said they would “vote unless there was an emergency” (September Poll):
Relliy 17%
Patrick 46%
Gabrieli 27%
The story notes that only 6% of respondents remain undecided.
FURTHER UPDATE: Frank Phillips’ write-up has some more very interesting details.
Patrick was considered by the likely primary voters to be the strongest candidate for the Democrats to run against the Republicans’ choice, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. Some 40 percent in the survey say he has the best chance of winning in November, while 22 percent name Gabrieli, and 19 percent, Reilly….
Asked which of the candidates cares most about “people like you,” 38 percent of those questioned chose Patrick, 23 percent said Reilly, and 20 percent said Gabrieli. Asked which candidate had the best television ads, 36 percent chose Gabrieli, 26 percent said Patrick and 12 percent said Reilly.
I find the disconnect between the “cares about people like you” question and the “best TV ads” question to be particularly interesting – clearly, the latter did not translate into the former.
FURTHER FURTHER UPDATE: One more nugget that simply must be passed along:
Thirty eight percent had an unfavorable rating of the attorney general, up from 24 percent in August 2006 poll by the Globe. The other side of the coin: 70 percent had a favorable view of Patrick, up from 51 percent in August.
Reilly’s high unfavorables are easy enough to explain: last week’s debate. But Patrick’s extraordinary favorability numbers, in the face of a barrage of advertising by the other candidates, some of which took direct aim at him, is really remarkable. Wow – maybe if you run a positive campaign that is based on genuinely listening to and reaching out to people, people will respond! Wouldn’t that be amazing?
YET ANOTHER UPDATE: All the gory details are here.
David, do you have the other raw numbers? Sample sizes and such? They’re not yet on the CBS4 website.
A sample size of 500 give you a MOE of 4.4%, which is what they say it is.
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Keller says “anything can still happen.” Sure, but Gabs and Reilly have already tried a lot of things they thought would work.
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I’m thinking it’s going to be a good day Tuesday! And, correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Deval’s climb in the polls begin right after the BMG endorsement? đŸ™‚
LOL!
I have found is from the AP at: http://www.boston.co…
I’m surprised that only 6% of voters are undecided. Based on my experience, I’ve spoken with quite a few Democrats who still are making up their mind between Patrick and Gabrieli.
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Of course, I’ve also spoken with a lot of folks who’ve decided on Patrick after the debates.
Long time reader, first time poster…
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The number of voters who say they are undecided (or voting for a candidate, for that matter) in a poll is very dependent on how the “ballot test” question is written. If the question asks the rather direct version “If the election were tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you vote for?” you’ll have a lower level of undecideds than if you asked “Towards which of the candidates are you leaning at this time?”.
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This poll probably used the first version or something like it. Honestly (disclosure: I am a very strong Patrick supporter, by the way), I think that version of the question presents a false choice (because the election isn’t tomorrow, after all). The number of undecided voters, amongst likely voters in general, is probably a bit higher than 6%. Amongst the most likely voters, though, it is probably pretty low and may even be around that 6% level (more frequent voters, who are the most likely to vote, are more likely to decide on a candidate earlier than late-deciders).
People like him, they really, really like him!
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And for those consultants who are busy recording misleading robocalls — keep going. It’s working quite well. The more you work at smear, the more people understand what needs to change.
I’m still fighting for every vote. No rest for the weary. C’mon Devalites, let’s get out there and bring in a majority of the primary vote!
Patrick was considered by the likely primary voters to be the strongest candidate for the Democrats to run against the Republican’s choice, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. Some 40 percent in the survey say he has the best chance of winning in November, while 22 percent name Gabrieli, and 19 percent, Reilly.
people are realizing “electability” doesn’t mean having the most issues standing in the middle… it means having conviction, courage, charisma and vision.
Nobody really knows what an unenrolled voter who splits their ticket thinks. So when people here “most electable” they rationalize their favorite candidate most of the time.
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John Kerry was the most electable too, remember?
The electability numbers in this poll do closely follow the actual support numbers.
To explain a bit more, this is different from the electability polls previously run, where the respondants had the ability to choose Kerry Healey. This appears to have been only a choice between the three Dems just as the main poll was.
“Also, the poll shows that Patrick is viewed as the most electable of the three Democrats.”
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Among those voting in the Democratic primary.
Isn’t that the point. This is a Democratic Primary, Republicans need not reply. PS: 2/3rds of this state, or more, are either unenrolled or democrats… so I’m quite happy with those results. Anyone not counted in it are probably going to vote for Kerry Healey anyway.
The point is that the “electability” figures from this poll are not de facto great news for Patrick. What they say, in effect, is that 40% of likely Democratic primary voters — 46% of whom support Patrick — think he’s the most electable. It says nothing about his overall electability.
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If the numbers said anything else, now that would be a story. In the meantime you should be puzzling over that 6%.
Anyone who does not win the primary is by definition unelectable in November.
…but what strikes me about this poll is that 63% of likely Democratic primary voters favor either an immediate or gradual rollback of the state income tax rate.
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I’m not one of them and it won’t happen, but it does present an interesting challenge moving forward.
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Wonder how Reilly will react to this poll. His union support has always been wide but shallow; he may decide they won’t show on Tuesday. If he drops out it may help Gabrielli. Not that anything can stop Patrick now — the Globe ended this race on the 10th.
Just gotta get all those polled out to the real polls! GOTV!
An interesting point, perhaps worth noting, is that these results exactly map the levels to which the three campaigns reached out to the blogosphere. We have yet to get a call-back from the Reilly campaign. I actually think that is more a symptom than a cause of the results, but it is instructive.
to try to get them to blog and advocate for their candidate.
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His supporters on the South Shore have ignored the blogs as assidously as Reilly has.
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I sit on a regional political board and I made exactly the same comment in our last monthly meeting – “This will be the last election that any candidate or their supporters will ignore blogs.”
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Political activists or those that consider themselves as such better get over their “shyness” and “nervousness” and “squeamishness” about blogging.
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Those are the 3 words I’ve heard used when I ask why someone hasn’t blogged.
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Interestingly, they (political activists)will admit thatthey are starting to read the blogs – posting is another matter.
I think that’s a shame. I guess people are afraid of making asses out of themselves (which I do several times a day), or with facing folks who disagree.
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One of the things we’ve tried to do here — imperfectly, of course — is to create an environment where people can disagree amicably.
felt that everything they needed to know about elections they already knew:phone banking, canvassing, visibilities,getting union support etc.
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The attitude was that blogs were just one more thing they didn’t have time for.
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Lamont/Lieberman was an eye opener for many people
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I don’t think that ’08 will have the same problem.
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I’m sure nearly all here were blogging to some extent on other national sites prior to this election (former Deaniac here)- what I see locally now is that for the vast majority of people this election is their introduction to political blogs and many have told me they will be posting in the future and I feel confident they will.
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It is a little intimidating to jump right into blogging during a primary “battle”;maybe they need the less intense atmosphere of an off year to ease their way in blogging on-line.
This is amazing, and certainly is consistent with what I’m hearing/feeling out there amongst the real people. And what’s with Jon Keller? Is he becoming less jaded than I thought he’s been for the past several years? [I’m just remembering his snorting and scoffing about the Clean Elections Law]
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And finally, my biggest concern, is that there was no question asking how people would vote if they knew I was supporting the candidate. That usually seems to be the death knell of that particular candidacy.
UNH Survey Center
Interesting little factoid. Deval’s strongest region is CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. That’s a good sign.
According to the Globe survey, Patrick is viewed favorably by 70% of likely primary voters. He is viewed unfavorably by 9%. This is not a typo.
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I have been looking at polling for a long time. I have never seen numbers like this before. As sabutai correctly noted in a recent post, these numbers are probably better than the Pope’s.
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This is a guy:
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who has not run one negative ad;
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who had the fortitude to take unpopular positions on several issues;
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who has been attacked as both too liberal and too corporate by his opponents;
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who has been outspent by Gabrieli something like 3 to 1 on TV.
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The result of all that: 70-9.
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Yes, that’s among Dem primary voters. But he’s about to be facing a candidate with modest political skills, from an administration that has not dealt with a whole range of issues people care about, whose party is very small in Massachusetts and having a bad year nationally.
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If we can now unite behind our candidate, this is the year we win, friends. And we’re doing it taking responsible, progressive stands and building at the grassroots. Whoever you have been supporting, I think this is something to be hopeful about.