Goldberg: 18%
Murray: 15%
Silbert 10%
Margin of Error: +/- 5%
There is good news for Silbert and Murray in this poll and bad news for Goldberg. After spending millions on TV ads for a month, she’s still in the teens. Not where I’d imagine her people wanted her to be at this point.
As for Murray and Silbert, they both picked up about the same amount since that last poll which had Murray at 11% and Silbert at 55(not sure if that was SHNS). That is good news for both of them, especially since this poll was taken after only 2 days of their ads running. With Silbert running what I and others perceive to be more ads than Murray, and with her field operation apparently kicking into gear (anyone see that coming? I didn’t until I got lit dropped on my doorstep), I can’t be disappointed with this poll. Sure, no one like to be last, but someone has to be. But take solace in the following:
In case anyone needs reminding, here are the results of a poll taken Sept. 6 & 7, 2002 in the downballot race comparable to this one, the Treasurer’s race:
Segel 17%
Murphy 14%
Tim Cahill 8%
Mike Cahill 6%
And just to prove that the LGs race that year is NOT comparable to this year, that same poll had the following:
Gabrieli 38%
Pines 13%
Slattery 10%
Maybe if Deb had spent an extra million she’d be where Gabrieli was 4 years ago – namely closing the deal.
Too bad she has to face two solid candidates in Silbert and Murray.
Mayor Murray’s field work is going to pay off. His organization has been out for nearly 10 months and all the hard work is beginning to pay off. I will agree that Andrea is a much harder campaigner then Goldberg. As we all have thrown some shots at each other in the end I will agree that I much rather work along side Andrea then Deb,just not in this race. I have read time and time that Murray can not win with a just a strong field organization.
I have repeatedly stated that Tim only needs to stay competitive with Goldy, and Andrea. Now being out spent by a millionaire is a huge task, but Murray has done a decent job at still showing that he is in this hunt to win. And maybe,just maybe, having a strong field organization will be the deciding factor in getting him over the finish line.
We are seeing that money is not buying Gabby the Gov’s job, so we may just be seeing a repeat performance in the LG race.
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p> Time will tell, so don’t forget to hurry, hurry, vote for Murray !!!!!!!
This plurality-takes-all stuff is the pits.
Factoring in the margin of error, Donald Duck still remains only 13% out of first place!
I mean come on, only 200 people actually responded to the survey. And I’m not just saying this because Mayor Murray is no longer “in the lead” according to the poll – though he is within the margin of error.
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Hoss makes a good point though, Goldberg must be kicking herself for not going on television earlier. She might actually have a more substantial lead if she had. Murray seems to be holding his own against her, despite dropping the least cash on TV, and utilizing people on the ground instead. Personally out in Central MA, besides TV I have not seen or heard anything from Goldberg or Silbert. But, it might be different in Boston or the Cape.
I’m shocked, SHOCKED!
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If we want to be sticklers, we could say that if the marge-innovera was put into extreme motion, this poll could be completely upside down. But that’s unlikely because polls, while not always correct, do often reflect reality.
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But then again, as I pointed out, 4 years ago things were way off in the Treasurer’s polling at this point.
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Let’s also remember that this poll was taken after Silbert and Murray had been on the air for 48 hours. I’d be curious to see what the numbers look like today after endorsements, more ads and more press coverage.
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As for you hearing from Goldberg or Silbert in CMass, you probably won’t seem them on the ground out there as much given the demographics. It also appears Murray isn’t spending time there, as his public schedule indicated a day in Meffa today and a day in Lowell tomorrow. I presume this is because he feels confident in his CMass “base” – which he should.
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My only Silbert contact today was a big visibility in downtown Boston during lunch when I went out to get a sandwich in Post Office Square. Not a bad place to be, I suppose, given that a ton of people flood that area on nice days like today – a la moi – and they’re from all over the region and are likely to vote given the employers in the area. I have yet to see a Goldberg visibility anywhere, save for the obnoxious banners hanging on a couple of buildings in Camb. and Boston. I doubt she has any significant field presence or volunteers.