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Lowell Sun Poll –Gabrieli has momentum

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The results are in and should be posted in the Lowell Sun tomorrow.

I spoke with the paper last night and it looks as though the momentum continues for Gabrieli in this latest poll.

43%  Chris Gabrieli

38% Deval Patrick

19% Tom Reilly

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  1. Also: how big is the sample?  Is it only “likely Democratic primary voters,” or is it something else?  What are the margin of error and the confidence level?  Who conducted the poll?  Were other questions asked?

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    A poll’s horserace numbers without any additional detail are not very meaningful.

    • IF these numbers turn out to be backed up by good methodology, it could be the explanation for Reilly pulling his ad buy this weekend.

      • I’ll do the dirty deed of being the “some” as in “some say”…

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        If Reilly is really on the ropes to this extent — and if he’s out by over 10 points, there’s reason to worry — thoughts turn to enodrsements and strategic voting.

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        Of course, a nasty person would see karma in a Gabrieli victory thanks to the help of those orignially inclined to go for Reilly.

    • that Paul@01852 in a reply first mentioned in Interesting Poll  Here is Paul’s entry from last night:

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      “Interesting poll (0.00 / 0) 
      It was just called to my attention that the Lowell Sun is running a sraw poll on their web site:
      If the election were held today, which Democratic candidate would you vote for?
      Total Votes = 210
      Chris Gabrieli  28.09 %
      Deval Patrick  49.04 %
      Tom Reilly  22.85 %”
      Paul went on to add
      “And this (Greater Lowell) is supposed to be REILLY territory!”

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      Obviously Gabrieli supporters accepted the challenge and voted and the result was favorable to Gabrieli albeit meaningless other than to show that Gabrieli does have committed supporters despite the deval supporters claims to the contrary.

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      I think Too Left For Me was simply pointing out that Gabrieli won this poll which only allowed one vote per computer despite the fact that this area is supposed to be a Reilly stronghold per Paul @ 08152.

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      You know the Gabrieli supporters are more than a little sick and tired of some of the Deval supporters discounting, underestimating, devaluing or insulting the number and commitment of Gabrieli volunteers.  We’re out there whether Deval backers think we are or not.  Today, I marched with Chris in Marlborough.  Both Chris and Deval had a lot of supporters marching with them.  The Gabrieli team matched the Deval team person for person. 

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      • this morning at the Worcester Labor Breakfast?  Chris Gabrieli was there–with two guys and a bunch of lawn signs stuck in the median.

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        Reily had about 6 guys, and Deval Patrick had about 60. 

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        Why wasn’t your organization in Worcester to support your guy–who was actually there to speak (as was Reilly and Patrick).  Two guys?? 

          • That’s hilarious Jim!  Double knee slapper, you funny guy you!!  You’re so funny!!! đŸ™‚

        • I was at the Marlborough parade.  Are you going to deny the fact that Gabrieli match Deval person for person? “If you say ——-, I’ll say ——–……..” 

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          • has a huge GOTV/field operation.  You tell us that hundreds of volunteers show up at Gab events, that there’s a ground force for Gabrieli that rivals that of Patrick.  So I go to the Worcester Labor Breakfast–a huge event in these parts, BTW, with Reilly, Patrick, Gabrieli, Murray, U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern, and all the Central Mass politicos, and I expect to see a presence.  I expect to see double-digit volunteers from these scores of ground troops you tell us about who have driven into Worcester, not exactly the hinterlands,  to support their guy out here in the second largest city in the Commonwealth.  What do I see?  Two men holding Gab signs guarding about a dozen lawn signs. 

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            So you tell me?  What’s the deal?  You guys don’t care about the Central Mass vote? 

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            It may be that Patrick, with his legions of volunteers, will lose on the 19th and your guy, with his less-than-legions will win on the 19th.  Who knows.  But if you’re going to try to convince us that Gabrieli has the field operation that Patrick has, there really ought to be some evidence of it somewhere where you’re not. 

            • Sure, it wasn’t the legion of Devalytes holding signs at an event where you wouldn’t change the minds of anybody in attendance, but there were more than 10 people holding Chris’s signs.

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              Sounds like locker-room talk: “Mine is bigger than yours.” How eighth grade.

          • I was holding signs for Chris in Worcester and marched in the Marlborough parade Deval inexplicably couldn’t make it to. I guess he had a rally there later, or something.

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            Big deal. Deval’s campaign had dozens of supporters at an AFL-CIO breakfast where the constituent unions have already made their decisions to either back a horse or stay out of the primary. Translation: All those signholders weren’t going to sway anybody. Wicked smaht use of resources.

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            As for Marlborough though, we did match or even exceeded Deval’s camp person-for-person and we received an extraordinary amount of applause and support from parade-goers.

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            Really, this whole “our grassroots organization is bigger than yours” boast is tired. As has been stated many times on this blog before, “misunderestimate” Gabrieli’s grassroots at your own peril.

            • Deval was in the Marlborough parade.  I’m fixin’ to blog about it.

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              Matched or exceeded Deval’s presence?  That’s not true either.

        • is that this weekend the Gabrieli organization had a meeting with its Worcesster volunteers and over 100 coordinators from the city showed up (right down to the precinct level, you know grassroots.)  In addition, a Gabrieli town meeting held in Worcester this past week had over 250 people in attendance along with canvassing, phone banking, 4X8 signs and many, many lawn signs for Gabrieli in Worcester. 

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          You know you guys are building very high expectations …. it’s kind of nice being David against Goliath.  Reminds me of Howard Dean in Iowa…..

          • All this is good for Democracy.  This is the American way.  The best guy will win and we’ll march on to Nov. 7. 

          • I was at the Gabrieli event last Thursday at the Elks, and there is no way there was 250 people there. They were in the small room (don’t ask me why he didn’t spring for the bigger room like Deval did) and it was a borderline fire hazard with the 100-120 that were there. It was full yes, good on him for that. But 250 is a serious number cooking. It’s not physically possible.

        • Why were there only four Patrick supporters at two recent standouts I saw on the South Shore?  There were three at the first and one at the second.  I actually applaud these  folks.  I think it is great to see their committment and passion – despite the low numbers and despite the fact that we support different candidates.  I only mention this as you seem to be taking these shots at the Gabrieli campaign whenever you can on the few occasions that the #s don’t meet your expectations – which frankly we could care less about. 

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          Before two debates earlier this summer, Gabrieli supporters standing out prior to the debates were by far the largest contingent – yet you did not hear us taking shots at the few Patrick supporters in attendance at those events. 

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          In the end, this is all meaningless.  The real #s will be counted on the 19th.

  2. that the Sun had posted on their front page earlier this week, than the results aren’t worth anything. Can you say, “Freep?”

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    All it means is that Tom Reilly’s supporters are not so much down with the internets.

    • of the kind Susan describes, I’ll delete this post, since I would consider it an attempt to mislead readers.  I assumed that TooLeft was talking about a real poll.

      • This would appear to be roughly where the online poll wound up. I wouldn’t say delete it, but let’s call it out for the Caralis Poll that it is, OK?

  3. is that this is an internet poll.  If it is the one that I saw on their site this weekend, then it is a lot better than other internet polls I have seen since users were only allowed to vote once in this poll.  This is another illustration that Gabrieli’s grassroots support is very likely more passionate and deeper than most folks have given credit to date.

      • I agree that internest polls mean nothing but please be even handed in your advise. I do not see you chiding the Deval supporters who cite these “utterly useless” and meaningless polls.  In both cases, the Lowell Sun and Boston Magazine on line polls were first mentioned on this blog in other posts by Deval supporters when Deval was leading in the respective poll.  When Gabrieli pulls ahead or pulls off a “win” in these polls and one of his supporters mentions it, suddenly, you comment on how “utterly useless” these polls are.  And I agree with you for the most part, although I would argue that the results have shown both the Gabrieli and Patrick camps to be far more energized and engaged than Reilly’s camp. 

      • I agree that internet polls mean nothing but please be even handed in your advise. I do not see you chiding the Deval supporters who cite these “utterly useless” and meaningless polls.  In both cases, the Lowell Sun and Boston Magazine on line polls were first mentioned on this blog in other posts by Deval supporters when Deval was leading in the respective poll.  When Gabrieli pulls ahead or pulls off a “win” in these polls and one of his supporters mentions it, suddenly, you comment on how “utterly useless” these polls are.  And I agree with you for the most part, although I would argue that the results have shown both the Gabrieli and Patrick camps to be far more energized and engaged than Reilly’s camp. 

      • I agree that internet polls mean nothing but please note – as Greencape has as well – that the Lowell Sun and Boston Magazine internet polls were first mentioned on this blog in earlier posts by Deval Patrick supporters when their man was leading.  Now that Gabrieli has pulled ahead and “won” this round, suddenly we hear these polls are “utterly useless”.

  4. I saw a copy at the local copy shop.  Didn’t see any poll mentioned.  I didn’t buy the paper, but it wasn’t on page one or visible with a quick skim of the paper.

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