So there it is: the Murray campaign is counting on increasing turnout in Worcester County by 40,000 voters. If they do that, good on them, but any seasoned political operative knows an extraordinary field/GOTV operation is good for 3-5% points. Even with Deval Patrick’s purported unprecedented field operation statewide, increasing turnout by 66% is a pipe dream. Taking it one step further, if they are able to increase turnout in Worcester County by that large an amount, presumably working in concert with the Patrick campaign’s GOTV operation, it will be because something bigger than any of them is happening in the state and turnout across the board will be greater – which will help the other candidates and lift all boats.
As I’ve said all along, if Murray can re-write the downballot campaign playbook and win a primary without competing on the airwaves with the bigger spending candidates, I will be happy because it will get us back to where we ough to be – running and winning grassroots campaigns. However, as we move farther and farther away from those grassroots years, I fear that we can’t return to that model in non-top-of-the-ticket races.
So, that’s one element of Murray’s plan.
Here’s the other element of it: a hunger, a drive, and indeed a sense of desparation amongst Worcester-area political operatives who can barely contain themselves about the possibility that one of their own will be elected statewide. They thought they had a shot with D’Amico back in ’86, but that fizzled. And now they have the (pasty) white knight they’ve been dreaming of for decades. Take this quote from “Worcester man-about-town and Democratic Party activist extraordinaire” John Brissette in today’s Worcester T&G while he was directing the set up for Murray’s election night party:
How longs it been? Mr. Brissette said as he directed logistics in the middle of Union Stations expansive marble-floored entry hall yesterday afternoon. Weve got a shot in Worcester to do something really big. We cant blow it.
There you have it. These guys feel a sense of ownership, which is good. But there’s also that sense of desparation; if their man doesn’t win, it seems like these guys won’t know what to do with themselves. But another excerpt from this article shows how confident they are:
If he wins, Mr. Murray will deliver a speech to local supporters before being whisked to Boston to appear on stage with whoever is victorious in the primary for governor.
With a state police escort, I presume? There’s some Herald front page fodder for ya…
But their arrogance doesn’t stop there. In that same T&G article, the Murray campaign is blatantly asserting that their candidate is the one to pick if Deval Patrick wins.
Are you kidding me? I’m not asking that for political reasons, because projecting confidence is important. And each of the LG candidates can make a credible political argument why they are the most appropriate running mate for Deval Patrick or any of the others too. But could you BE more presumptuous, arrogant and disrespectful? People don’t like being told who to vote for, and an article like this certainly won’t help that. People want to vote for winners, people who instill confidence, but when they detect a candidate’s sense of entitlement, that don’t work.
I’d advise the Murray campaign to tone down that rhetoric in tomorrow’s debate because the whiplash can getcha everytime.
So, there’s the playbook: increase turnout in Worcester County and environs and hope that investing in direct-mail advertising and gotv will trump advertising on television. I hope for the sake of democracy they’re right. Otherwise those State Police will have to shift from escort duty to suicide watch.
You blatant attacks on Murray should be toned down. No one in the Murray camp is telling anyone who to vote for,good try. Look at the facts, four years ago, Roomney/Healey won every city/town in Worcester County there ae over 60. They lost where in Worcester.
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Now if think that with several hotly contested Rep’s races,a open DA’s race, 5 people running for a Gov Council position, and a Worc State Sen race going on, Worc County is going to the polls those that are supporting Murray believe that we will get a high turnout. For you to make comments like this is beyond ridiculous, but it’s not the first time you embarrassed yourself on this blog.
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Let’s not forget it was Goldberg who used her authority to get the Police Chief to give her an escort to Fenway Park !And that was after she pulled her gold badge after getting stop in Brookline for speeding, remember what the Brookline Officer said she stated “don’t you know who I am “. yes, Deb we all know who you are ???????
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Hurry,hury Vote for Murray !
Dems took Worcester in 2002, just not Worcester County. Again, on what planet do people vote for a ticket based on the person bringing up the rear?
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I know a few Murray bloggers are campaign staff. You, highhopes, are the one I wish was out front for Murray from day one. (Resulting in a 5% total vote for Murray)
No campaign has worked harder with less time than the murray camp. They have a solid base over their that works their ass off for no real reward other than getting responsible people like Tim into office. Does that sound anything like entitlement? Your twisting the facts more than usual this time hoss and it bothers me deeply that some people might actually believe this and other things you have posted on this blog. I think it says alot about Tim when the people he has lived with and worked with his entire life are throwing there full support around him. The numbers maybe higher or lower but that support in central mass is one of the reasons he will beat to other strong candidates on tuesday.
…your opinions are great, but where are your facts? Refute the FACT that the city of Worcester represented 2 % of the total voters in the ’02 Dem primary.
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Refute the fact that while you tout Worcester as the “2nd largest city in the state” that it represented only the 4th largest turnout, getting trounced by Cambridge and Newton and barely beating Quincy my a few hundred votes.
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Refute the fact that Worcester County represented only 11% of the total vote cast in the ’02 Dem primary.
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Smitty and HH, face the facts–Central Mass doesn’t have the juice to impact the elections in a meaningful way. I’m not saying Murray can’t or won’t win–but he won’t win it from some awesome GOVT effort in Central Mass.
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So what are your facts? Real facts, not baseless opinions.
…You give numbers on Worcester’s voter output in past elections and make claims as to why having Worcester is not all that important. But then you end with “Central Mass Doesn’t have the juice to impact the elections in a meaningful way.” I hate to break it to you, but there are a lot more towns/cities in Central Mass then just Worcester, and Murray has strong support in more than a majority of them. So how bout some numbers on Central Mass as a whole before you go asserting that “Central Mass Doesn’t have the juice.” Cause I am curious if once you add in the rest of the communities, not just Worcester, how does that effect your numbers?
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~John
I relized I completly missed an important part of my above comment, I am curious about the turnout in the general election. How will Central Mass help Dems in November. The talk now seems to be who will best help the Gov candidate, so I find this important.
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~John
I really dont know where to start so I guess Ill first point out that there were 66,717 Democratic voters in Worcester COUNTY in the 02 primary, but only 15,469 Dem voters from the CITY of Worcester in 02. (Sorry no links, I have a copy of PD 43-Mass Election Statistics 2002 sitting next to my computer to refute opinions with facts.)
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I have no doubt Murrays crew will increase turnout in the City. Like Hoss, Ill be shocked if they increase turnout by more than 10%, never mind 66%. Im no Political Scientist, but if that happened it would probably be an unprecedented event in US electoral history.
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But back to the numbers OK, lets assume Murray has a Countywide GOVT that will drive turnout in 60 communities in Worcester County. What can they realistically expect? Well, the best GOTV effort in Worcester County in a long time was Guy Glodis effort 2 years ago, in defeating (down right crushing) Sheriff John Flynn. It is widely known that Murray is using the talents of Glodis organization for GOTV in Worcester County. And in that primary election there was 68,351 total votes cast. This represents a turnout increase of 2.4%, from the previous election. This represents the lower end of an effective GOTV effort of increasing turnout 3-5%. Even if Murrays campaign DOUBLES this GOVT turnout, were still only talking about a 5% increase from 02or about 3500 more votes.
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There are two ways to win elections. One way is to get people who normally dont vote and get them to vote for you. The other way is to persuade the people who always vote to vote for you. I have NEVER met anyone with a few election cycles under their belt who believes the former is a better strategy than the latter. (Especially if they tried the former strategylike getting college students to vote.) If you want to make the argument that the former strategy works, you have to cite the election and document a substantial increase in turnout results before I personally would consider the argument valid.
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So there you have it, Murrays campaign is aiming for the history books. They are going to increase voter turnout by 66% in a down ballot race. Pretty ballsy, I must say. Win or lose, if they accomplish that, I will be in awe of them.
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But even that will not deliver a win for them. If they get out 100,000 voters and the turnout is as small as the 620,000 predicted that still only represents 16% of the total predicted vote. And theres lots of room for the other two candidates to get votes. We shall see.
Last State Primary, 100,000 voters blanked Lt. Gov…so if the turnout is 650,000…the base vote for Lt. Gov may actually just be 550,000…smaller universe…it throws the percentages off in this race as compared to Gov.s…
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Also I do not think anyone assumes Murray will only get votes in Worcester County….he won in every region of the state in a liberal tilting convention…the Dem primary voters ar more moderate…so I expect he will do very well statewide…Worcester will be the frosting, not the cake!
that no one in Worcester County will blank their ballot? In fact 11% did so in ’02. There will be plenty of blank ballots in Worcester County.
But I imagine that there will be fewer blanks as a percentage in Worcester county, just because low-to-zero information voters may just vote on address (which will be on the ballot).
For those of you who are Boston-centric…. there are more economic and political connections between the southwestern end of Middlesex County (Framingham, Ashland, Marlborough, Hudson, Hopkinton, Holliston) and Worcester County than you may realize. Jim McGovern represents several communities in the area, and there are several state senate and rep districts which overlap the two counties. A lot of people live in one area and work and shop in the other.
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Further, don’t underestimate the frustrations of the Metrowest voter. There’s a sense that The Powers That Be really don’t care about what happens west of 128, except when they want to raise money. There are a significant number of Democratic voters in this area who WILL vote for a moderate-to-progressive state-wide candidate BECAUSE that person comes from Metrowest/Worcester and so must be One of Us.
I’m not sure that this assertion is fact-based. As someone from Framingham who has run elections in Framingham and Ashland I can’t think of one person who would vote for a Democratic ticket because “that other guy” on it is from somewhere 30 minutes west.
As someone from the Western part of the state who has followed politics and has seen first hand the the differences in attention paid to your part of the state and my part of the state, I welcome “that other guy.” It is about time someone like Tim Murray, who knows we exist out here, decided to run.
they are both voting for Murray
Here’s my thesis as to why Murray could win if he can carry southwestern Middlesex County in addition to Worcester County. ard victory. Please note that I am torn between Murray and Silbert, so I have no reason to tout one candidate or another.
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Metrowest is one of the most affluent and educated regions in the state. There’s a population of roughly 160K to 170K in the six towns I cited. If you exclude children and non-citizens, there’s a potential 70K to 80K voters, with a substantial proportion of swing voters.
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In the eight years since I moved out here, I have sensed a drift in Metrowest away from being totally Boston-centric and seeing its economic fate more closely tied with that of eastern Worcester county. The region covered by the Metrowest Daily News (MDW) includes Westborough, Southborough and Milford, as well as the six towns I listed. People cross county lines for jobs and shopping. One can get from Framingham to Worcester as quickly as to Boston and not incur Pike tolls or parking.
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There is a broad base of agreement — which crosses party lines — that three of the core issues most critical for the region are economic development, improved local aid, and transportion. There is also a sense that the region’s votes, campaign contributions, and tax dollars taken for granted by the powers that be on Beacon Hill without a proportionate sense of benefit.
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As someone who has been a strong advocate for his community, Murray is in a position to connect in Metrowest. The fact that he has gained Spilka’s endorsement does potentially matter here. He also was able to get former Sen. Magnani — who remains warmly regarded — to record a robocall for him. Since there remains so many undecided voters, I think key endorsements like these and the “He’s From Around Here” factor can tip things his way.
I like and respect both of them.
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Spilka: Reilly
Magnani: Gabrielli
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Nobody listens to them on endorsements after those blunders.
She’s voting for Reilly too…
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HLPeary’s ticket? Reilly/Murray?
Certainly the turnout aspirations for Worcester County may be a bit of wishful thinking, but Murray is going to run strong throughut the state. Do the math, Murray wins and brings tenacity and experience to Beacon Hill.
…more than 50% of the voters are undecided about this race (according to the latest polls).
Tim Murray will do outstanding in Worcester and central Mass. I said it’s a reason he will win on Tuesday by no means the end all. He has solid support in every region of this state. I specifically was speaking about Central Mass which was the topic of this post. If central Mass is only 2.4% of the vote then it isn’t as key a factor but I’m pretty sure it’s a higher number than that. Frank stop personally attacking Tim, debate where he stands on the ISSUES as opposed to your candidate. A strong figure in my life once told me you know when someone has lost a debate when they resort to personal attacks.
Your insight is valid. Why exagerate the numbers?
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So there it is: the Murray campaign is counting on increasing turnout in Worcester County by 40,000 voters.
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34,000 voters.
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increasing turnout by 66% is a pipe dream.
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50%.
Math ain’t my strong suit. I did “round up” the turnout numbers, but wasn’t trying to do fuzzy math on the percentages.
“Well, it’s finally been revealed: the hunger, the drive, the desparation of the Murray campaign has been revealed in two recent articles.”
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Hoss – there is nothing depsparate about the Murray camp busting their humps to increase turnout in Central MA. It’s a pretty logical strategy.
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You’re a real genius figuring that one out. The Goldberg and Silbert camps owe you a tremendous debt.
This is from the email I received from the Murray campaign today-
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So on your point about him aligning himself with DP, there you have it. Believe it or disbelieve it, but that’s the word. It’s certainly not an error that I would put past the T and G, although best believe they will be hearing it from me if this becomes a more serious issue.
Of course Murray’s campaign has to officially disavow any promotion of a Patrick/Murray ticket. It would be foolish to alienate large numbers of Gabrieli and Reilly supporters just before the only poll that counts gets tallied.
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At the same time I bet Tim wouldn’t be upset if his supporters talk about how much synergy a Patrick/Murray ticket would have. There is balance on so many levels. It is a great ticket to win, and an even better ticket to govern. I am an ardent Deval Patrick supporter and I believe I have a sense of him as a man. I’ve known Tim since he was a kid. They are both extremely hard working and focused. Each is in the business for all the right reasons. They are tough minded operators who don’t back away from a fight, yet they each have compassion and an affinity for the disenfranchised.
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And this is the best part: They are both good guys (note to editor: “good guy” is used in a gender neutral sense, i.e. a woman can be a “good guy”). Watch how the electorate warms up to them in November.
Maybe its fine time democratic strategists in this state took their eyes away from polls and numbers and got back to some common sense.
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The reliability of the polls in a race like this is not very good. First of all, primaries are about actual turnout. Murray has made a name for himself in Eastern Mass and even gained the Globe endorsement, something rare for a Central Mass candidate. Assuming things are fairly close in Eastern Mass, the advantage Murray has in Central and Western Mass should easily put him over the top. To the average voter outside of Boston politics, Murray represents a familiar face with ideas and proven results.. the current economic and cultural rebirth in Worcester.
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The people running Murray’s campaign are neither stupid or hopeless. There is a reason why Murray received the endorsement at the convention, and by a good margin at that. The more the people of Central and Western Mass to show up to the polls, the more votes they can concede in the greater Boston area and still win the election.
It was a voice vote after all.
Murray 49%, Goldberg 29%, Silbert 20%.
Joe,
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FYI, Silbert beat Goldberg at the convention. Goldberg made the ballot by only a couple hundred votes – much closer than anyone expected. Murray was by far the most organized and if his team does the same thing in the primary, that bodes well for him — as long as those efforts are targeted in the right places.