Blue Mass Group

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Robert A. Havern III’s Bloody Nose—Primary 2006

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In an attempt to spin a lackluster performance to a newbie councilwoman, Bob Havern has made a couple outrageous claims in post-primary spin. To sum-up,  Bob Havern, an 8 term incumbent, got only about 60% of the vote, losing one of 5 towns in the District and barely squeaking by in two others (actually, his hometown of Arlington carried him through, plain and simple).

To downplay his performance, today in the Globe Northwest Bob Havern states that a 60% performance for him is par for the course. A statement that is simply not true. His performance this time around was notably less impressive compared with any other challenge he faced in a Primary—- the fact is that 4 out of 10 motivated democrats preferred a virtual unknown to Havern. In Beacon Hill parlance, Bobby has serious issues back home.

Second, in a Bushesque quote to district papers, Bob Havern attributes his borderline performance in Burlington and Billerica to a shadowy “gun owner’s advocacy group”. Yes, Bobby… and there are WMD’s in Iraq… and 5 out of 10 motivated democrats in these two towns are the imps of a gun lobby!

Have any other long term Beacon Hill icons been similarly scratched last week?

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Comments

  1. I don’t see it as a bloody nose at all.  It is a reflection of the different political realities of the cities and towns in the district.

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    Bob Havern is one of the most outspoken liberals in the legislature.  This plays well in the southern half of the district (Arlington and 6 of 9 Lexington precincts).  Needless to say, Billerica, Burlington, and 12 of 14 Woburn precincts aren’t as liberal as the southern half of the district.

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    Compare the Deval Patrick votes in these towns to the percentage of the vote that went to Havern:
    Arlington:  Patrick 56.4%, Havern 78.6% (Havern’s home town)
    Lexington:  Patrick 66.0%, Havern 70.0%
    Burlington:  Patrick 36.6%, Havern 53.2%
    Billerica:  Patrick 32.1%, Havern 50.4%
    Woburn:  Patrick 31.4%, Havern 33.4% (Gonsalves’ home town)

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    Also, consider the total number of votes and the plurality for Havern from the five towns:
    Arlington:  Votes cast 9,475 (36.5% of district) Havern Plurality +5,419
    Lexington:  Votes cast 2,687 (14.8% of district) Havern Plurality +1,535
    Burlington:  Votes cast 3,169 (12.2% of district) Havern Plurality +201
    Billerica:  Votes cast 4,317 (16.6% of district) Havern Plurality +37
    Woburn:  Votes cast 5,167 (19.9% of district) Havern Plurality -1,720

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    Havern’s plurality in Arlington was greater than the total number of votes cast in  Woburn!  Given the nature of the district, a liberal from Arlington or Lexington will never rack up large numbers against a candidate from the northern end of the district, but will always win the primary.

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    • …but comparing Patrick’s performance in a 3 way primary to Havern’s performance in a 2 way primary is a classic apples to oranges comparison.

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      Is there a link to this story Arlinglive?  Where is the councilor from?  Even if they are a “newbie” they are still an “elected” and has a proven track record of understanding what it takes to win an election.  Besides, large turnouts, like the won we got, tend to favor challengers who get independents or new voters more inclined to throw out the incumbent.  Based on that, I’d take 60% in a primary.

      • I wouldn’t use a two-way to a three-way race as a direct comparison between the candidates.  However, the percentage of votes for Patrick is a marker of something – which I contend relates to how liberal the town’s voters are.  The more liberal the town, the more votes for Patrick.  As the Patrick vote increased, the Havern vote increased.

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        If we want to broaden the party leadership beyond the Boston delegation, Havern is the kind of suburban liberal (and Irish Catholic) who can move the party’s agenda in the legislature.  He would be a strong, progressive Senate President.

  2. What were the main issues between Havern and his challenger?  What motivated her to run against a long-time incumbent?

    • Not much.

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      Gonsalves signed the anti-marriage petition, but disavowed it.  Said she wasn’t paying attention to the papers.  Here’s two quotes from the Woburn Advocate.

      Gonsalves has challenged Havern by saying she will be accessible to constituents with a district office and Web site, two things he does not have. The incumbent said when he had a district office, “hardly anyone” visited, and he has found a system that works, with a district aide in the State House dedicated solely to local issues.

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      In the final throes of his run for a ninth term in the Massachusetts Senate, Robert A. Havern III is letting his experience do the talking.   Asked how he differs from challenger Joanna Gonsalves on a policy front, Havern replied: “Not much.”   But the Arlington Democrat differentiated himself from the Woburn alderman by pointing to his ranking on Beacon Hill. Havern is assistant majority whip, and said he will be moving up if re-elected.

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