Lots of folks are weighing in on the Lt. Governors race, from editorial boards to your neighborhood bloggers. The most avid followers of candidates are the political opinion columnists for the Boston Globe and Boston Herald. These are the folks who are seasoned political reporters who have moved over to the opinion pages to give readers a more in-depth view of candidates and issues.
So far Andrea Silbert is winning this race in a landslide.
From Wayne Woodlief of the Herald, Andrea Gets an A for Energy, Ideas
For Ellen McNamara, Andrea Silbert is the voice of the middle class
And today, Scott Lehigh declares Andrea as the real star in this (LG) field
From the folks that follow theses races week in and week out for the last year, the choice is clear: Andrea Silbert for Lt. Governor.
I can’t figure out why Silbert isn’t polling higher (and no, I don’t put too much stock in a poll with 53% undecided)? I have always assumed that Andrea would be in first or second, any thoughts on why she isn’t? She is running a very good campaign, is good on the issues, and hasn’t tanked in any debate and, as you mention, she is getting lots of ink and good coverage. This is a mystery to me.
It’s because she’s running for Lt. Governor; she’s had a tough time getting the voter recognition she needs. That said, I’d almost bank on her finishing higher than Deb Goldberg… who, despite pumping in 2.1 million of her own money, has less than 20% of the vote in the latest survey.
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That bodes well for Andrea; she just has to find a way to connect to voters. Perhaps, she should send some decent direct mail? Clearly, just commercials isn’t cutting it, because Andrea has been on air.
Remember, Silbert went up on TV the Thursday before Labor Day–probably for the media hit–then pulled off during the low viewership of Labor Day weekend. She only started her heavy TV starting last Tuesday (Murray was advertising over the Labor Day weekend I believe.). I’m not sure of the exact dates of when the poll was taken, but clearly the impact of Andrea’s TV was not measured in this poll. (Rule of thumb is people need to see an ad three times before it has an effect–so I doubt anyone saw Adnrea’s ads three times by the time the poll was done).
…the last five minutes of the game is all that matters (A Brian McGrory quote). As Hoss pointed out yesterday, the Treasurer’s race had Tim Cahill with 8 points one week out.
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The Suffolk poll in June had Andrea at 5 points–and she only started her TV last Tuesday, so her doubling in the polls is a result of the press and buzz. The impact of her advertising has not kicked in (or at least not reflected in a poll taken last week.)
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In fact, the question to ask is what has 3 weeks of heavy TV done for Deb? Not much. And what will another another week do for her? Not much more improvement. Same thing can be said for Tim, as the party endorsee and all the endorsements he’s collected from local pols. I think the real question is why haven’t either of them broken from the pack?
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So the fact that Deb’s advertising and Tim’s endorsements have not pulled them way out front is the real story here. Andrea’s free media has kept her growing in the polls at about the same rate as Deb and Tim. She has her $600,000 (or so) TV campaign kicking in during the last 5 minutes of this game–when it counts.
🙂