Has anybody else heard the rumor that a new Suffolk poll being released tonight is supposed to throw the race into chaos? I have heard from some campaign staffers that the poll is supposed to turn the race upside down, but I have not heard any numbers. Some questions:
If the poll shows Patrick losing his enormous lead, it begs the question:
Are polls an accurate predictor of the electorate?
1) If the answer is no, then is all of the “Deval momentum” we have been hearing about from the past polls be hot air?
3) If the answer is yes, how did Deval lose his lead so quickly? Was it his prosaic performance in the second debate, or is Gabs’ evil hammering on the tution for undocumented children proving to be an effective wedge issue?
Whatever it shows, I still think this is a three way race.
then what it suggests to me is that somehow Suffolk’s methodology is weird. If you’ve got Survey USA, State House News, and UNH all saying one thing, and Suffolk saying something else (twice in a row), that seems to me the obvious conclusion. I mean, even Gabrieli’s internals show Patrick ahead.
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Anyway, the UNH poll in today’s Globe was post-Wednesday’s debate, so that wouldn’t explain it.
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And it won’t turn the race upside down. Patrick’s campaign has been steadfast in doing what they’ve been doing all along, and they’re not about to change two days before the primary, regardless of what any polling says.
there is the chance that Suffolk’s methodology is better. . .only Tuesday will tell!
anyone know where deval’s victory party is planned to take place?
When the Suffolk Poll is due out?
No major change – deval still in lead
Full release here:
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http://www.suffolk.e…
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Patrick 37%
Gabrieli 29%
Reilly 21%
Undecided 11%