David solicited reactions to the new Deval Patrick ad below. The reaction from the mostly pro-Deval crowd seems unanimous — This is what we’ve been waiting for.
As much as the Patrick campaign has been run with a grassroots emphasis, you simply can’t reach enough people to win without some media component. And unfortunately, the 30-second ads seem to hold huge sway over large groups of voters: These are the volatile, relatively low-interest swing voters. So for many Patrick supporters, I have to imagine that the late media entrance was the cause of some concern, if not outright worry: When will the other shoe drop? When will the TV ads that almost had to be excellent seal the deal?
The first two ads were shanks, in my view. The bio spot, with footage from Faneuil Hall was merely OK: One had to wonder, Why are they paying a voice-over guy when Deval Patrick’s the candidate? Can’t he speak for himself? And the classroom ad suffered from too-fast delivery and an awkward staidness.
But this new ad may well be the one that changes the race. As you can see in the comments to the previous thread, Patrick backers recognize their guy, unencumbered by superfluous production and dull professional voice-overs. This was the guy who made them feel like there was a real opportunity this election to raise expectations; to change not just the governor, not just his party, but the very climate and culture of cynicism about our state government.
That sounds like a bunch of emotional goo-goo to jaded observers. But people make decisions based on emotions, like hope or despair. After all, tax-cut conservatism is based on despairing that one’s government can ever get anything right. That’s an understandable view, given the current situation; but it plainly leads to a downward spiral of expectations and performance in government. What effect would a dose of hope and optimism have on our state government? Might people actually dare to hold their government to a high standard of performance, instead of looking at the Finnerans and Bulgers and Amorellos and Big Digs and shrugging their shoulders, saying, “It’s just Massachusetts”?
I really like Chris Gabrieli a lot, who is indeed running a “positive, substantive campaign”; and I respect Tom Reilly’s public service. I think in different years for different reasons, those guys would be winning candidates. But to echo Publius’ comment: There’s only one guy in the race who talks like that, and who can have that kind of an emotional impact on people.
Anyway, no one’s paying attention this weekend, but I fully expect that a healthy ad buy next week will result in Patrick’s poll numbers moving noticeably. Then it’s one more week, and then we vote. The game isn’t over, but think of this ad as a three-run homer in the 7th.
Update: Regarding “substance”: I’d also note that the ad efficiently and unobtrusively includes the substantive positions where Patrick has been bold: Cape Wind, et al.
I’d make one improvement to this ad. It’s going to reach a lot of people who aren’t reliable primary voters, if it runs on TV, and it’s exactly the sort of ad that could motivate some of them to vote. But among those people are many who don’t realize there’s a primary that’s different from the general election – well, if you asked them specifically, they’d probably give the right answer, but when they think “vote” they think “November”. And there are others who, while clearly understanding that this is a primary campaign, don’t remember when the primary is, and may not take the time to look it up. The closing text should have “Vote Deval Patrick on September 19th” or something like that.
<
p>
I realize this isn’t very targeted, and reminding people when the primary is runs the risk of reminding some Gabrieli supporters, I have to wonder if the Patrick campaign just didn’t think of it.
That’s kind of important, isn’t it?
I want him to make more and more ads just like this.
Having never seen Patrick speak but having listened to countless people on BMG talk about his dynamic speeches, it was nice to see it’s not all hype.
<
p>
I’m still leaning towards Gabrieli, but this commercial certainly makes me feel better about Patrick’s chances if he wins the primary. Now if he would just change his position on the rollback!
<
p>
Don’t know your location, but here are a couple of options:
<
p>
Join Congressman Jim McGovern & Marlborough Mayor Nancy Stevens
for a pre-primary rally with Deval Patrick, Democratic Candidate for Governor.
<
p>
Masonic Hall
Corner of Newton & Main Streets
Marlborough, MA
Friday, September 8, 2006
4:00 PM – 5:30 PM
<
p>
Free refreshments will be served.
RSVP to the McGovern Committee at 508-795-1998.or webmaster@jimmcgovern.com
<
p>
Deval Patrick Community Meeting in Wakefield
Saturday, September 9, 2 PM
Sheraton at Colonial Hotel,
Deval Patrick will address the group and take questions.
The Sheraton at Colonial Hotel, located just north of I-95/Route 128 (Exit 42)
on the Wakefield/Lynnfield line
<
p>
The speeches are amazing, no doubt, but what did it for me when I was considering who I was going to support for Governor was the opportunty to speak with Deval. He usually spends some time at his community meetings taking questions, and speaking with people after he makes his remarks.
<
p>
If your schedule allows, go and speak with Deval yourself about your concerns about taxes.
I live in Medford. I will try to make the Wakefield event.
<
p>
Thanks again.
that he’ll be in Medford next Sunday (at Tufts). Will try to confirm.
Sunday actually works better for me, but I’ll make the Wakefield event if Sunday isn’t happening.
Here are a few more opportunities to speak with Deval Patrick next week. I already posted these, but here they are again:
<
p>
Tuesday, September 5th
7pm – North Shore Community College Lynn Campus
Meeting Room
MBTA Parking Garage
700 Market Street
Lynn, MA
<
p>
Saturday, September 9th
Noon United Church of Christ
6 Lexington Street
Burlington, MA
<
p>
4pm Peter A. Torigian Community Life Center
79 Central Street
Peabody, MA
The rollback is your big issue with Deval? It’s a pretty small issue, especially given our shaky financial condition. I mean… there’s soooo much more at stake than $300 bucks spread over the course of a year, especially when that $300 bucks could cost you $500/year in property taxes 2 years down the road when there’s an override passed to compensate for local aid cuts.
I think the tax issue is one of the big reasons why a fair amount of voters that would typically support a Patrick like candidate are undecided or leaning towards Gabrieli and Reilly.
<
p>
I can’t remember where I heard it – but you can use an intellectual defense to argue an emotional issue.
<
p>
It’s not about the money! It is about ignoring a voter mandated issue.
Especially for this period. You always want to end with an inspirational leadership ad toward the end of campaign season, and it’s well done. The ad does a great job leaving behind an impression of excitement and leadership with the script, the music, the use of Obama’s image. It feels like an ad that would be great in October as well.
Not to nitpick BUT shouldn’t that be “shoe”? — waiting for the other foot to drop is sortof a strange image…
<
p>
Still, great post, Charley! I agree, this is the guy we’ve been supporting — the school ad was okay, but not very dynamic. This one had all the right elements — excitement, punch, and issues. A winner, I’d say!
Foot drop, by the way, is a bad clinical sign, indicative of neurological impairment. Swap out “foot” for “shoe.” 😉
that there are many people more alert at 7:25am than I am late at night. “Shoe”, indeed.
<
p>
I highly encourage everyone to spot and correct my mixed metaphors as well.
Good to see that in the midst of Primary Anxiety there are a few who retain their sense of humor!
“Foot drop is a deceptively simple name for a potentially complex problem. Foot drop can be associated with a variety of conditions such as dorsiflexor injuries, peripheral nerve injuries, stroke, neuropathies, drug toxicities, or diabetes. The causes of foot drop may be divided into 3 general categories: (1) neurologic, (2) muscular, and (3) anatomic. These causes may overlap. Treatment is variable and is directed at the specific cause.”
<
p>
While it is clear that Patrick is blessed with communication skills, he is too far left to do well in a general election. The Democrats of today are not the Democrats of the past. Vast numbers of them have become unenrolled. They comprise the middle 50% of the electorate. These votes will determine who the next governor will be.
<
p>
Those voters are less likely to be convinced by Patrick’s eloquence. They have not drunk the Koolaid. They will not complement the Emporor on his “new clothes.” I understand that before DP can reach out to these voters he must win the primary. He had better hope that those unenrolled voters do not grab a Democratic ballot during the primary. I think that most will, as there is no reason to take a Republican one.
I can’t argue that Deval is a great orator and the third ad certainly showcases his remarkable ability to deliver a speech. However, I saw this ad as a longer version of the beginning of his biographical ad in which he spoke of “hope”. Like that part of the bio ad, the new ad is cut from his pre-convention rally speech and has Barack Obama prominently featured in the background. Sure, it sounds great and he very briefly touches upon some campaign issues. The problem is that this ad, like the other two, lacks substance and relies on oration, pulling on viewers’ heartstrings, and the ‘Barack Obama is my friend’ theme.
<
p>
This ad is indicative of the superficial nature of Deval’s campaign strategy: Use emotion-evoking rhetoric, stress grassroots support, and avoid engaging opponents and voters on details of issues and governance. Sure, he’s trying to engage voters hearts, but it’s clear he’s avoiding engaging their minds.
In a 30 second commercial? Gosh, I think you’re looking for blood from a turnip. Did Gabs’ garbage commercial have more substance, for instance?
<
p>
No, this emotional stuff actually matters. Here’s another riff people who know me are tired of hearing: No one knows enough to properly judge all the important policy decisions that a governor must make — not even the governor! So, it’s critical to know what kind of person the candidate is, what makes them tick, why they do things, what motivates them and what they think motivates you. An issue checklist is good to have, no question, but it’s not enough.