So, it seems pretty obvious by now who Kerry Healey DOESN’T want to face. In this morning’s Globe her campaign accuses Chris Gabrieli of stretching the facts. Last week she was posting a doctored video of him outside South Station to make it appear as if he had little support. Healy won’t even join in a forum with the other candidates yet because the Democratic primary hasn’t been held but she she has no problem singling one of them out beforehand?
Why is she going after Chris Gabrieli?
Is it because she knows that if she has to face him in November that her political career will be over? Does she know she can walk into office talking taxes all the time if she is up against For-It-All Deval? Does she know that the GOP will retain their hold on the corner office if the Democrats nominate the AG who never met an obstacle he didn’t like to stumble over? Is it because polls show that she is way behind Gabrieli in a potential match up and that he has the resources to compete with here?
Or is it all of the above? Kerry Healy is terrified of Chris Gabrieli, and it shows. For Democrats who really want to take back the Governor’s office, there is really only one choice.
I know for a fact–from people who talked to her personally at the time–that when this race began, Healy feared Reilly and hoped to run against Patrick. With all due respect to the Reilly enthusiasts out there, that judgment looks pretty silly now. It was based on a simple left-right continuum, and looked commonsensical by those standards, but left out everything else that matters in politics. Turns out that Reilly’s a bumbler and Patrick is as formidable a politician as we’ve seen from the Democrats in a long time. Call me a Kool Aid drinker, but I think that was pretty clear early on. So forgive me if I don’t assume that Healy’s political instincts are the sharpest. Maybe she’s still underestimating Patrick, but if he wins next week, she’ll soon rue that day.
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Don’t get me wrong: I think Gabrieli should scare her as well. And I’ll concede that she’d get some votes from Patrick through her “tax pledge.” But she’d pick up other votes from each of the other candidates (far too many votes from Reilly in my opinion). To my mind, Patrick’s in the best position to take advantage of the current political situation and mood. Sure, the liberal-moderate-conservative frame is a non-trivial part of out politics, and is often a very useful starting point for assessing candidates’ strength against any given opponent. But applying it mechanically to this election and is, I think, both simple-minded and misleading. If it were the key to the election, Reilly, who now talks like a Republican on taxes (thanks for solidifying their frame, Tom) would be the big threat–something that no one not blinded by loyalty to the guy still believes–and it leaves out so much else that drives gubernatorial elections in our state right now (“insiders” vs. “outside,” who can best change the culture on Beacon Hill, charisma, who seems Gubernatorial, organizational strength and skill, who seems likeable (big problem for the Ice Queen), etc., etc.). It’s pretty clear to me that Patrick leaves both Democratic rivals in the dust on most of those other counts.
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But as I’ve said in multiple posts on this site for a long time, I think we’ve got two people who’d do quite well in the general. I don’t at all object to the enthusiasm of Gabrieli backers for his chances against Healy. They should be enthusiastic. I just refuse, and resent, the endless simplistic analyses of why he’s the electable candidate. I think my guy’s chances are at least as good, quite probably better. And while I believe Gabrieli would be a pretty good Governor, I think Patrick would be a great–potentially transformative–one. I can’t imagine throwing that away because some people make immensely contestable claims that choosing otherwise is more “pragmatic.”