The latest Channel 4/Survey USA poll is a shocker: Deval Patrick has exploded into first place with 45% of the likely Democratic primary voters; the other two are both below 30%. Story; details.
609 (!) likely Democratic primary voters. MOE: 4.1%. Confidence: 95%. More on interpreting the MOE. Survey taken Sept. 9-11, 2006 (all after last Thursday’s debate). Last poll’s numbers from Aug. 22 in (parens).
Deval Patrick: 45% (34%)
Chris Gabrieli: 29% (30%)
Tom Reilly: 21% (29%)
A quick look through the crosstabs shows that Patrick’s support has sharply increased among most groups, and Reilly’s has decreased. Gabrieli has stayed pretty flat in most groups. Particularly striking is Patrick’s jump from 34% to 42% of “independents,” from 33% to 42% among “moderates,” and from 15% to 26% among “conservatives.” Among each of those groups, Gabrieli lost ground slightly, and Reilly plummeted. That strongly suggests that the people who freaked about Reilly’s performance in last week’s debate, or who otherwise are leaving the Reilly camp, are – somewhat unexpectedly – breaking for Patrick, rather than the more “moderate” Gabrieli.
If the State House News poll – scheduled to be released in about 45 minutes – confirms these results, it’s a happy day at Patrick HQ.
that is a whopping surge for DP.
there’s little to question. When polls move a lot, there’s a lot to question.
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I’ll be thrilled if DP wins (45,29,21)/.95 . But, I’m willing to bet that this poll isn’t quite spot on. It’s too big a bounce, too quickly. Did that many people watch the debates and/or change their mind because of it? I’m skeptical.
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We’ll see if the State House News poll corroborates, or shows Survey USA to be an outlier.
This poll needs to be confirmed. However, it’s certainly good news and likely illustrates that Deval has gone up a little. I hope the State House poll is just as good =)
True, the 45% was recorded before “Ben” endorsed Gabs on his blog…..
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Stom, you say “all at once,” but the last poll was 3 weeks ago. DP’s gone on the air; his roots working hard; Globe endorsement; solid in debate. Seems plausible, no?
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Also, wouldn’t Gabrieli’s moves today seems to suggest that his internal poll numbers are also trending DP’s way? Otherwise why not sit tight?
but two data points do not a trend make.
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The poll could be right on the money. It’s possible the other polls were in error, or that all polls have been right and public sentiment has shifted dramatically in three weeks. As I wrote earlier, I hope that is the case.
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However as a scientist, (1) outliers immediately stand out, and (2) I can’t help but be guarded when it comes to data that reinforces my already held beliefs. It’s just too easy to find yourself in an echo chamber.
Debates? Who watches them (except us)? It might have something to do with those quality 30-second TV spots though.
I don’t know the ratings from the last debate, but I bet it was watched by a decent percent of primary voters. Add in word of mouth from people who watched it – and overwhelming media coverage… and it could certainly sway people.
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But the commercials certainly helped, especially the 3rd one from his speech (I also like the newest one too, but I’m not sure if that’s been out long enough to feel its effects).
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I really think the Globe endorsement could have come into play. The news media actually picked it up, including on shows such as NECN.
I was primarily thinking that if this change in the polls is accurate, it must be mostly from the debate and post-debate analysis… how much do people think the Boston Globe’s resounding endorsement of Deval came into play? It seemed to be one of the few cases where an endorsement by a newspaper really matters since I was so sure they’d go for Gabrieli. It was a coherent case that readers would take back with them, as opposed to the nonsense the Herald spewed (at least the Cape Cod Times put in some examples that seperated Reilly from other opponents).
It’s not the debate, it’s that Reilly got absolutely (and justifiably) hammered for a nutball performance.
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I think the fact that Patrick is gaining the most comes from the ads.
With July poll numbers in paren.
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Patrick 36% (35)
Gabrieli 26% (22)
REilly 19% (19)
Normalizing both sets of numbers so they sum to 100% (with some rounding error)…
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SurveyUSA:
DP 47%
Gabs 31%
TR 22%
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SHNS:
DP 44%
Gabs 32%
TR 23%
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So, they would seem to verify each other’s results pretty strongly. SHNS isn’t quite as strong for DP, which is what cough cough I predicted would happen earlier in the poll.
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Pretty strong evidence that Deval Patrick is surging. Has he peaked too soon? Can he keep the momentum all the way to September 19, 8pm?
No and yes, repectively. This is exactly when people want to peak.
CBS4 isn’t unique. The State House News poll, just out, has Patrick at 36%, Gabrieli at 26%, and Reilly at 19%.
Jon Keller wrote that things are highly volatile, but mebbe he is promoting his TV debate.
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1. Taking the 2 polls at face value, does a lead like DP’s one week before primary pretty much always hold up?
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2. Histoically, what are the characteristics of any late stage turnaround?
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Or is it over, short of a GGW endorsement or Gabs calling up the Deion Branch and says “I will personally pay you $80 million over 6 years to come back to the Patriots.”
African-American candidates tend to come in a couple of points below their polling numbers.
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That said, a surge after Labor Day tends to be the last major wave. Of course, something major could happen between now and next Tuesday, but it would take a video with Deval and Osama bin Laden plotting to blow up Fenway Park.
I just came from Deval’s last public fundraiser before the primary.
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600 people packed into the State Room at 60 State Street. When the poll numbers were read – (as they say in Worcester) the place went mental!!
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Tim for Treasurer was there as well.
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Both polls blew everyone in the crowd away. I heard internal numbers last week were showing Deval with a smaller lead prior to the debate…
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As I mentioned (I believe) on a post here last week – I think most people leaving Reilly will head Deval’s way – thinking that Reilly can’t stand Gabrieli so why should they vote for Gabs if they’re not supporting Reilly?
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Just a gut feeling.
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Be interesting to if Gabrieli pulls out any desperation play tomorrow night during the debate…
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