Blue Mass Group

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Zogby Interactive Poll: Patrick by 31%

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It’s an interactive poll, so take this with a huge grain of salt.

Patrick 58.7%, Healey 27.3%, Mihos 8.3%. Margin of error +/- 3.7%. Poll dated Sept. 28th.

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  2. Zogby’s board tracks races for Governor and US Senate.  The only margin wider than Patrick v. Muffy (+31.4) is Spitzer in New York (+37.4)

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    Only three other races have a margin of 20 or better, and they are all Senate races.
    Hutchinson (R) Texas (+23.5)
    Clinton (D) New York (+23.7)
    Bingaman (D) New Mexico (+25.4)

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    Of course, they are not polling races where it’s lightly contested or unopposed, including senate races in Massachusetts and Indiana.  However, they aren’t polling for Gov or US Senate in Rhode Island.  What’s up with that?

    • My understanding is that Zogby/Wall Street Journal picked several months ago only those races they thought either were or could be competitive for the purposes of these rolling polls. They had determined that RI’s races (as well as Burns in MT) were “safe” seats and not worthy of polling.

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      Totally off topic and sorry for asking — how do you use a quote box in the comments? I’ve been screwing this up.

      • You start with one of these fun little LESS THAN signs <.

        Then you use the word BLOCKQUOTE followed by a GREATER THAN sign >.

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        Paste your text.

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        At the end you use one of these fun little LESS THAN signs <.

        Then you use the slash in front of /BLOCKQUOTE followed by a GREATER THAN sign >.

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        Obviously, if I used the GREATER THAN or LESS THAN signs, it would produce a text box, so I will do it with curly brackets instead.

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        {BLOCKQUOTE}Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah.

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        Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah.{/BLOCKQUOTE}

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        Using the GREATER THAN and LESS THAN signs instead of the curly brackets, the same text produces:

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        Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah.

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        Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah.

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        End of lesson.  (Unfortunately, there are people in this forum who will think the contents of the quote box is my most intelligent post to BMG, but I will run that risk.

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        There’s more instructions in the About menu on the left side of this page. Just click on formatting tips.

        • There’s more instructions in the About menu on the left side of this page. Just click on formatting tips.

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          I didn’t even notice this section before. Thanks again!

  3. I disagree with your disclaimer.

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    Granted, Zogby only polls people who have volunteered to participate, but people in phone polls self-select, too (by not answering the phone or declining to participate, e.g.), and there are different problems with those polls (poor people are under-represented because they may not have phones or are working two jobs, cell phone users are under-represented, etc.).

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    The Zogby polls are not open to anyone, only those who have registered, and the results are adjusted to take into account the democraphics of the sample versus the population as a whole. Phone pollsters do the same thing.

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    I’ve found Zogby polls to be quite reliable (i.e. predictive) over the years I’ve been watching them. I think this is as solid as any other poll you’ll see.

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    I think the more important caveat is that it only represents sentiment at this moment in time, and that can change (sometimes dramatically) as the election approaches.

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    The cheerful news for us Patrick supporters is that our job is to identify people who will vote for Deval, and make sure they get to the polls. It’s a lot easier than the job we had leading up to the Primary, when a lot of the responses were along the lines of “Deval Who?” or “No, I wasn’t aware there was an election this year.”

    • Michael, I’m wondering if you have the Zogby International polls (which are generally reliably) confused with the Zogby Interactive polls, which are by-and-large garbage.

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      In 2004, Zogby Interactive did not have a very good track record, if I remember correctly.

  4. a real poll since the debate? Since this is an interactive poll and there is no way of knowing the balance in terms if it  a good blend of dems/repub and indep,and are these likely voter, registered voters because of this it may not be the most accurate. While it maybe close I am not sure if it 100% accurate.

    • That’s actually the only good point about the Zogby Interactive polls.  They are always balanced to voter registration and demographic numbers.

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      The problem isn’t that the end result isn’t balanced.  The problem is the raw data that they’re balancing may be skewed in ways that traditional phone polling is not.

      • Phone polling has it’s problems as well – especially in this day of cell phones – but the difference in my mind is that we have more experience with phone polling, so the problems are (hopefully) better understood. For the MA-GOV race, Zogby Interactive seems to be giving similar results to phone polls, at least for now.

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        Why yes, I do like caveats. Well, not all of them. đŸ™‚

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