Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Is this Smith dude on Romney’s payroll or something?

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Back in August, I noted how silly it was for UNH pollster Andrew E. Smith to declare that Mitt Romney’s weak 4th place, 12% showing in a poll conducted in a state he lives next door to, and has a summer home in, constituted “looking good.”

Well, Smith is at it again.  Here he is today, according to the Globe:

“Mitt Romney has improved in recent months from high single digits to 15%,” said UNH pollster Andrew E. Smith said in a statement outlining the findings.

Now, I’m no statistician, but even I can tell you that 12% does not constitute “high single digits.”  Looks to me like in the last two and a half months, Romney has risen a total of three percentage points — from 12% to 15%, easily within the polls’ margins of error — in our neighbor to the north.  The new poll shows Romney in third place, up from fourth, but only because Condoleezza “No! I’m REALLY not running! How many times to I have to say it?” Rice has dropped a few points.  Romney’s standing among candidates who are actually in the race remains the same: third.  Moreover, since John McCain’s numbers increased 6% from the August poll (26%) to today’s poll (32%), Romney is actually further behind the frontrunner than he was before.

Why is Andrew Smith so intent on putting such a positive spin on Mitt Romney’s crappy poll numbers?  And why isn’t the Globe at least raising questions about it?

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Comments

  1. For a guy who won the Primary with about 20%?  Wow, I don’t think Kerry was that low in the dark days of December ’03 in New Hampshire.

      • …sure as a measure of exact voter perference it is useless for a variety of reasons.  But it speaks volumes about the lack of support Kerry has in NH–a neighboring state in which he won both the primary and general election.  This poll says NH has no interest in Jihn Kerry running for President.

  3. But here’s the only poll that counts:

    <

    p>
    Reps:

    <

    p>
    McCain 39.5%
    Giuliani 19.5%
    Romney 15.5%

    <

    p>
    Dems:

    <

    p>
    Clinton 49.4%
    Gore 17.4%
    Edwards 14.2%
    John Kerry who?

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