Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Comments

  2. I’m not sure about sample sizes among the age groups, but I find it interesting that Patrick’s smallest lead by age is among 18-34’s — just a 10-point lead (46-36).  I would have expected him to do best in that age group and worst among seniors, but he’s up 50-36 in the over-65 group and up 57-34 in the 50-64 group.  Are the 18-34’s watching Healey’s TV ads more than the others? 

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    Also, I’m disappointed this poll didn’t include the candidates’ positive/negative ratings.  My guess/hope is that Healey’s negatives are very high right now, though Patrick’s are probably up too.

    • a TON of 18-34 year olds do not have land-line home phones anymore –

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      I can think of 10 people I know in this age group and only one still has a land line – the rest are on cell.

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      How can polsters reach these people?

    • “Are the 18-34’s watching Healey’s TV ads more than the others?”

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      Or the reverse, are the older folks watching more Healey ads?  While canvassing and phone calling I’ve encountered several older folks who were really turned off by the Healey ads, maybe enough to lean toward Patrick.

      • Also, I’m imagining lots of men listening to Dennis and Callahan on WEEI in the morning.  I can’t stand them, but I guess they’ve been merciless beating up on Patrick for the past week.

        • They have been hammering Deval, even when they are talking sports.  “Oh, Deval wouldn’t like that.  He would sue to overturn pink locker rooms.”  Some of the rhetoric is so over-the-top that it borders on slander.

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          And their ratings are legit- I think they get something like 15% of males in the 25-50 demographic.

          • Would you be attacking the African American candidate in the race? Yeah, me neither, welcome to EEI. God, if this were 4 years ago I’m scared to think what these super macho cretins would be saying about O’Brien.

    • Well, it’s a little more complex than that, but there’s always a testosterone gap; this one is Bubba-esque (I’ll always wonder what would have happened if there had been an Ohio State – Michigan football game going on in Columbus on election night 2004).  Throw in a little ADD, the sports-programming ad buys, etc., and there you go.  Patrick leads in almost every other purely demographic (not party, ideology, or Bush approval rating) breakdown in the poll, and that’s pretty interesting, too, because ordinarily you’d see a few categories break either way.

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      Kerry’s gender isn’t cutting any ice with women, and it appears Deval’s race is not a huge factor, either, although I’m not sure how it would be reflected in this poll if it were.

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      Interesting stuff, these polls.

  4. … there are some interesting facts in the internals.

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    Break it down by Bush Job Approval – 30%/67%

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    For the 30% who approve of George W. Bush:
    Healey  74%
    Patrick  12%
    Ross  0%
    Mihos  11%
    Undecided 3%

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    For the 67% who disapprove of George W. Bush:
    Healey  16%
    Patrick  70%
    Ross  2%
    Mihos  9%
    Undecided 4%

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    This election seems to be breaking out on largely partisan lines.  People who like Bush are with Healey, people who disapprove of Bush are with Patrick.

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    People who don’t like Bush and aren’t for Patrick are split between Healey and the others.  People who like Bush and aren’t for Healey are split between Patrick and the others. 

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    It appears that Mihos is pulling evenly from both sides of the street.

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    Similarly,  if you look at party registration, loyalty is firm.

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    For the 19% who are Republicans:
    Healey  76%
    Patrick  10%
    Ross  1%
    Mihos  8%
    Undecided 4%

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    For the 41% who are Democrats:
    Healey  11%
    Patrick  79%
    Ross  1%
    Mihos  7%
    Undecided 2%

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    For the 39% who are Independents, that’s where the game is:
    Healey  39%
    Patrick  44%
    Ross  1%
    Mihos  12%
    Undecided 4%

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    My guess is that the Independents are breaking down based on their attitudes toward Bush and the Republicans.  Obviously, Patrick needs to change the conversation, but Healey really doesn’t have any substance.  She really couldn’t answer the question of fewer cops on the streets on WBUR this morning, of course she was trying to skate past the impact of the local aid cuts.  “Cities and towns hired many good police officers.”  But not enough to sustain staffing levels prior to Romney-Healey.

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    Get out there and campaign.  Make calls.  Send money.

  5. One thing jumps out at me when I looked at the poll details.  Bush job approval percentage still at 72% among Healey supporters.  You’d have to be THAT dumb to vote for Kerry Healey.

  7. The new Patrick ad just starting running. He’s 18 points ahead after taking a pretty good beating from attack ads, push polls and bad press. I believe that his message of change and true leadership is resonating with a lot of people. Also, don’t belittle the fact that people like Patrick. From what I’ve seen in politics and life,  when people like you, they will give you the benefit of the doubt.

    • His lead is shrinking faster than the Arctic Ice Cap.  If you think it is all over, you are soooo wrong.  Rapists and Cop Killers are his friends, the tax payers are his sheep to be slaughtered.  The ads write themselves, as shameful as they are.  Governor Patrick?  Not so fast, my friends.

      • On Sept. 19th-
        DP’s party is the place to be (0.00 / 0)
        There is nothing more glum than a coagulation of the backers of a losing candidate.  Besides, they may not be mainstream, but the Devalistas certainly know how to party.

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        I think I’ll be taking your advice with a shaker of salt, thanks…

      • Look, Herakles, I know that cleaning sh*t out of stables is one of your 12 labors, but I’d prefer it if you didn’t spread so much of the stuff around here. 

        • but the fertilizer I see on these pages every day would require a larger source of water.

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          I think I’m voting for your guy, but the erosion of DP’s insurmountable lead is something to behold.  If my writing about it upsets you I apologize.  I do not like negative ads but you have to admit that they write themselves.  Prepare for more in the upcoming weeks.  Now go and zero me again.  I love to see all of the hysteria.

  8. Look at the range of polls.  http://www.pollster….

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    Yes, Healey has finally broken above 30% since the Dem primary.  But Deval is still above 50%, and Mihos takes a good share of “angry” voters. (Where does the notion that he “takes” equally from Deval come from?  Hard to see here.)

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    One discussion point is: How much further can negative repetition of the “Deval loves cop killers and perves” line go to get Healey voters?  Does it switch voters who on September 23rd were with Deval, or just keep home unengaged voters who were not strongly with either?

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    So far there is no trend showing less than 50% of likely voters staying with Deval, and by October 8-10 the whole theme was out there.

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    The bottom line — given these numbers, if you were campaign advisor, would you go personally negative on Healey? Or stay with the: Let her writhe in the muck, i want to make Mass. work again, theme?

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    When will the GlobeHerald get back to wondering why it took so long for the Healey’s to give back their illicit Pride’s Crossing tax break?  Or why she has not track record during the adminstration for anything that has gone wrong, but takes credit for anything that slightly goes right? Or says that no quasi-independent agency with Republican controlled Boards is ever anything they are responsible for?

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    Please start the list — what SHOULD the GlobeHerald be reporting?

    • Running mates.

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      For more than half of the last decade, we have been under a governor who got the job by being promoted from lieutenant governor.  I would like to see a serious evaluation of the candidates for that position.

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      p>  – Dan

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