Frank saw it first, but since I (after much digging) managed to find the press release on Suffolk’s newly-impossible-to-navigate website with a few more details, I thought I’d write it up separately.
The basics: 400 likely voters. MoE: +/- 4.9%. Confidence: 95%. Data collected Oct 10-11. Last Suffolk poll from Oct 5 in (parens).
Patrick: 46% (49%)
Healey: 33% (28%)
Mihos: 7% (6%)
Ross: 1% (1%)
Undecided: 12% (16%)
Not surprisingly, most of the movement appears to have been due to the LaGuer kerfuffle, which (as we’ve noted repeatedly) was not well handled by Patrick. The poll also notes some movement in Patrick’s favorable/unfavorable ratio, which has gone from 55/24 to 50/31 — still an excellent +19%. However, Healey has hurt her own standing with her intensely negative ad campaign: “When asked if the recent tone of the Kerry Healey campaign made respondents more or less likely to vote for her, 22% indicated more likely, 53% less likely, and 25% said no difference.” The press release doesn’t tell us where Healey’s fav/unfav numbers are, but they’ll be available tomorrow. Last week they were at 34/43, for a sorry net of -9%.
What’s the good news? Well, obviously, it’s that Patrick is holding an enviable 13% lead, that he still has a very strong favorable/unfavorable rating, and that he (IMHO) is very unlikely to commit another LaGuer-like blunder, which means that the opportunities for Healey to score big unexpected points over the next 26 days will be few.
The other good news is that these numbers ought to finally get rid of any complacency that may have settled into the Patrick troops. If it wasn’t obvious before, it’s perfectly obvious now that those post-primary polls showing a 39% lead were silly. We always knew they were silly, and now it’s confirmed. This race is not going to be a walk — it never was. So for starters, show up this Sunday to show Deval Patrick and Tim Murray that you’re with them — and to show Kerry Healey and Reed Hillman just what they’re up against. Let’s see Healey try to match the show we will put on this Sunday.
Healey will continue to go negative and it will get worse from here. Darker and darker as she (or her handlers) reach even deeper into the mud. Obviously, at this late point, it is all her campaign can offer. I really doubt that she is in charge here and expect some rasputin (like Cheney or Ron Kauffman) is behind the majority of the tone of the campaign. Her one light and positive ad was probably Healey saying to her handlers that she had to at some point show a warmer and more positive side.
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She isn’t in control here and wont be in control if she gets elected. That job is too important to be left to her.
thats not alot of change in the past week, factoring in all the attacks on Deval. i thought it would have been much worse. even better, we have the big Clinton fundraiser which i think will be helpful, the rally on Sunday (if we get a huge crowd) will bring alot of good press and reminders as to why Deval is such a great candidate, and then the debates, where i think Deval will crush, especially if they are one on one with Muffy. does anyone know if its been decided or not if it will be just Mano Y Muffy, or will it have the other two as well? i really hope not ….
I think they still show his opponents in the Democratic primary closing in –:)
First, I’d like to start off by saying that I’m a lifelong democrat who supported Gabrielli in the Primary. My reasoning behind that choice is the fact that Gabrielli was probably the strongest potential candidate. To those who doubt this theory, I ask; Why was it that Healy felt the need to launch that 11th hour attack ad against him. and of course, we stupid democrats played right into her hands by nominating the weakest candidate.
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My friends, I’m afraid this is Shannon O’brien all over again. Remember? She’s the candidate who had a similar lead(12 points) in the same suffolk poll at abut the same time in October(http://www.suffolk.e…)
Well, we all know how that ended up. Like 2006, we could have nominated a much stronger candidate who I happen to believe was Robert Reich.
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I’m starting to wonder if the party really has any sincere interest in winning this corner office back. I for one will still vote for Patrick, however, I’m sorry to say, I think we’re looking at a Healy/Hillman administration. I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t have a good feeling about our chances.
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Let’s please wake up in 2010 and PICK A WINNER!!
Stop trolling, you honestly do NOT sound like any sort of “trueblue” democrat. You keep saying the same thing over and over in your comment history.
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Anyone with half a brain saw Patrick as the closest thing to Reich (both in outsider status and in the issues) in the primary. Gabrieli was too tied in with the legislature (which Healey would have tied around his neck like a stone in the general had he won). But unlike Gabs, who’s jumped on board the unity ticket faster than you can say “He’s a REAL Democrat,” you seem bent on convincing us of your blue credentials a bit too much for sincerity. Doth protest too much methinks?
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How long before we can ban Republican trolls, anyway?
OK Listen,
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I’ve lived in this state long enough to have voted for the democrated candidate in every single election since 1990. I supported SIlber(OK, he wasn’t true blue) because I knew what Weld’s privatization scheme meant for working folks, I was even among the 25% who supported Mark Roosevelt in 1994. I supported Harshbarger in 98 and 2002, well you’ve already heard that piece of history in my previous posts.
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Anyway, I can assure you, I am no troll. All I want to do is inject a sense of urgency..
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We cannot continue to passively sit on our hands and let Healy define our candidate. WE need to define him and our Opponent our I don’t see it working out for us.
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Please try to take the constructive criticism to heart. THe last thing we need is infighting within the movement.
Picking candidates based on who you think is most likely to win hasn’t worked out so well for Democrats.
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According to those graphs, it was ROMNEY who had a huge lead in the polls in the summer, then it shrank, then his opponent was briefly ahead, then he got it back in the poll that counted (election day). Question: Which candidate had the huge lead in the polls this summer? Hint: Not Healey. I don’t see how you pick a point in time and say “it’s the same as last time”, when the trends until that point in time were different.
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O’Brien was not a good candidate. Reich may have been the better candidate, but he got into the race too late (and in any case I’m not sure the commonwealth as a whole was ready for a progressive candidate four years ago. This is a much better time for that, when more people see the failure of the GOP nationwide as well as Gov. Romney’s lurch to the right.)
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Deval Patrick is a great candidate. He has experience in government, in the private sector and in the public sector. He also has the intangible of charisma. He’s being relentlessly smeared – just as any other Democrat would if they’d won the nomination. He had a bad week, but he’s still ahead. He’s also helped greatly by Romney fatigue and by huge negatives for Republicans in general, something O’Brien didn’t have four years ago.
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My friend, if you really care about Democrats gaining back the governor’s office, may I suggest that you stop panicking over tightening numbers that everyone knew would close some in the final weeks, and start helping to elect a Democrat this year. Talk to as many people you know as possible and solidifying support for the ticket. Contribute a few dollars. And think about showing up for the rally Sunday.
You’re right about Kerry. Actually, I thought Dean was the stronger candidate at the time because he had the charisma and was very much a straight talker in contrast to the wooden, stilted Kerry. I threw in the towel on that one when Dean got knocked off. How many voters in Ohio did they think were gonna vote for that Elitist from Luisburg sq.?
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Anyway, I do take comfort in the fact that Patrick started off with a built in lead back in the summer before he even made it out of the primary. However, I do think Gabrielli would have been a much tougher force to be reckoned with. There was nothing to hang on him and Healy knew it. Otherwise she wouldn’t have launched that 11th hour attack ad before the primary.
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Anyway, the past is the past. I do think Deval has the likeability factor behind him. However, I’m just worried about all these skeletons that keep coming out. They don’t change my opinion of the guy. However, I’m just afraid there are too many gullible people out there who actually take these attack ads seriously.
I understand your concern — there was definitely a drop in Patrick’s support, and we’ve all seen our candidates lose leads. But I don’t think Deval has “all these skeletons” — I think it’s just one skeleton with Kerry Healey’s campaign manager standing behind it, moving the arms and trying to make it look scary. The more we watch the act, the less scary it becomes. And we’re not going to keep giving it candy just because it stays on our porch and keeps shouting “boo!”.
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bottom line is, Deval Patrick is NOT Shannon O’Brien, who was a horrible candidate. they are hardly cut from the same cloth, so dont worry, lots of positive things ahead for the Deval campaign. All is good!
This is a poll of LIKELY voters, right?
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In the primary, a bunch of people showed up – making the prediction of low turnout laughable – and they increased the gap between Deval and the next guy in the race, not decreased it. When, of course, it was predicted the other way.
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I can’t predict the same thing will happen in the general of course, but I CAN tell you that the same tried and true hard-work methods engaged in the primary are being used tenfold in the general election…