Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Senate predictions anyone?

By

Well, the leads in half-a-dozen Senate races are now thinner than the separation between Rep. Foley and the nearest adolescent male page.  For those many of us looking outside the Bay State, how ’bout a Senate prediction thread?  I’ll take book on the following races:

AZ  CT  OH  MD  MN  MO  MT 

NJ  NV  PA  RI  TN  VA  WA

All you need is to categorize them as in this example:

Dems: OH, MD, MN, MO, MT, NJ, PA, RI, WA

Reps: AZ, NV, TN, VA

C4L: CT

(PS: You may be surprised to see Washington and Maryland on there.  But polls are getting close in those states.  As for Nevada, well, a guy can hope right?)  IF enough people participate, winner gets a free drink or two at the next BMG event, provided I can find you.

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Comments

  1. I’ll play, though another couple of days of “GOP coverup to retain power” could flip some more seats.

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    DEMS:  CT, OH, MD, MN, MO, MT, PA, RI, TN, VA, WA
    REPS: AZ, NJ, NV

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    The page scandal dove-tails into the George Allen problems.  The messages will blur.  Similarly, if the prevailing theme is corruption, it hurts Menendez and helps Kean, simply because Menendez’ home base of Hudson County is synonymous with corruption.  Similarly, Corker has ethical issues and Ford is filming his commercials in churches. 

  3. My guess:

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    Dem:  OH, MD, MN, MO, MT, NJ, PA, RI, VA, WA
    Rep: AZ, NV, TN
    C4L: CT

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    I was reading somewhere else analysis from Charlie Cook.  His point was that close races don’t break evenly between the parties.  Something pushes the majority of the races in one direction or the other.  Given the Mason-Dixon polls that came out yesterday for OH, MD, TN, WA, MO, MT, NJ, PA, RI and VA showed the Dem either tied or in the lead in all ten of those races, and those polls were done before the Woodward book and the Foley mess, I think the wind could blow in the Dems way (knock on wood, fingers crossed).

  4. Dems:
    CT, MD, MN, MT, PA, VA, WA

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    Reps:
    AZ, NJ, NV, OH (stolen), RI, TN

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    I was in CT this past weekend, canvassing Dems. and (mostly) Independents for Lamont.  One thing I noticed is that at least half of them are undecided–the race is far more malleable than polls are showing.

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    The vote to gut the constitution last week will come back to haunt our candidates in OH and NJ who supported it (NJ, OH, TN).

  5. In order of how sure I am:
    Democrats: MD, RI, MT, PA, OH, VA, TN
    Republicans: NV, AZ, NJ, MO

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    And I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Lamont will win in CT!

  6. Dems: CT, OH, MD, MN, MO, MT, NJ, PA, RI, TN, VA, WA
    Reps: AZ, NV
    C4L: none

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    Yes, it’s optiimistic but I think there’s a shot.

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    dave MB

  7. In order of most confident to least confident, left to right (*=pickups):

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    Dem: WA, MN, PA, MD, RI, OH, MT, TN, NJ, MO

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    Rep: NV, VA, AZ

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    Ind: CT

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    I think the big surprise will be that Kyl-Pederson becomes more competitive (in a good way) down the stretch while Allen-Webb becomes less competitive (in a bad way). In fact, I think AZ outcome could be one of those “whaaa?” results that take people by surprise. Unfortuntely, I just don’t see Allen or Lieberman losing in 5 weeks.

  8. Dems: AZ  CT  OH  MD  MN  MO  MT 
    NJ  NV  PA  RI  TN  VA  WA

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    Rep: NONE

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    Maybe the American people will surprise us.

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