Suffolk University has released the guts of the poll it announced yesterday. Generally, the news continues to be pretty good for Deval Patrick. And the Healey camp has to be concerned that despite an unprecedented barrage of negative ads over the last couple of weeks, Patrick is still at +20% fav/unfav; Healey herself remains with higher unfav than fav; and the “soft on crime” label isn’t sticking.
Here are some interesting bits from the poll.
Healey’s favorable/unfavorable ratio is currently at 40/44. Her fav is up a bit from the Oct 5 poll (when it was at 34%), but her unfav has increased a point as well. It’s hard to win when more people dislike you than like you. Patrick, in contrast, is at 51/31 (earlier reports incorrectly said it was 50/31), for a net of +20%.
Asked whether Deval Patrick is “soft on crime,” only 32% (no doubt many of the same 33% who said they’re voting for Healey) said yes; 41% said no. Relatedly, a large majority — 62% — of respondents said that the whole LaGuer kerfuffle either increased (27%) or had no effect (35%) on the likelihood that they’d vote for Patrick. And asked whether Kerry Healey is really tough on crime or only talks tough, 36% said she is tough, but 40% said she’s a talker — and, as noted yesterday, a majority of respondents (53%) said that the “recent tone of the Kerry Healey campaign” made it less likely that they’d vote for her.
Finally, and perhaps worst for Kerry Healey, a large majority of respondents say that MA is on the “wrong track” — 53%, with only 28% saying it’s going in the “right direction.” If Kerry Healey can’t turn those numbers around — and it’s hard to see how a barrage of negative anti-Patrick ads has any shot at doing so — it’s tough to see how she pulls out a win.
So, you know what, Kerry? Keep doing what you’re doing. Keep trying to tear Deval Patrick down. You’re driving up your own negatives, and you’ve still got a large gap to close, even with Patrick himself having handed you the unexpected gift of a screw-up on the LaGuer business. That won’t happen again. What voters really want to know is this: do you actually have a vision for this state that goes beyond standing helplessly by while the legislature rolls right over you? So far, I’d say you don’t.
The news around this poll sounds much more promising now that you put it in perspective. AS long as healy’s negatives are going up, I guess she can’t be gaining much traction even if Deval’s numbers are down slightly.
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I still don’t want to take this election for granted.
I think people are recognizing more and more that this whole cop-killer and rapist campaign is not just gross, it flies in the face of our constitutional system of law.
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And speaking of the Constitution and stuff, make sure you check the Boston Herald piece by the presidents of the Massachusetts Bar Association and the Boston Bar Association.
Justice’s Defense Must Never Rest http://news.bostonhe…
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…and I’m confident that I’ll be waking up on November 8th knowing that Deval Patrick will be the next Governor. But remember that the “negative playbook” of politics (sadly this is often a bipartisan playbook) is to create a electoral choice of the “lesser of two evils”. After round after round of nasty commercials, the voter is dislikes both candidates and either stays home or votes for the candidate that they think will do less harm. A sad indictment of politics, but reality.
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Right know that is Healey’s only hope–and it is a long shot, but crazy things happen in politics.
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And this is why we need Deval’s ad to be tough, but not nasty. Like people know he is a fighter, but not in the gutter. I think he can be a lot tougher than his latest spot before he even comes close to the nasty “killer cop” or LaGuer spots she’s been running.
Guys,
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IMHO, instead of preaching to the faithful and singing Kumbaya-all-is-fine here, we should take a bit more realistic view: The new numbers are not good.
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Let’s stop talking about how things are not working out for KH, let’s concentrate on making sure DP is elected and nobody is getting lazy (get the vote out and all).
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Compared to the last poll, KH came back from -21% to -13%. If this trend continues, you need not be a rocket scientist what happens in the next poll. Or let’s put it this way: If you where a KH supporter, you would embrace the new numbers, would you not?
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Add to this the fact that somewhere in the last week or two, most of CM’s voters are going to switch to KH (in order not to “waste” their vote), and DP is suddenly in Deep Poopoo.
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So instead of trying to cherrypick only the good from this poll, look at it realistically and see what it really says – the trend is bad, it needs to be reversed.
I agree 100% with your thesis: we need to work hard for this.
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But I disgree that there is any significant amount of hidden Healey votes in the Mihos camp.
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For starters, the breakdown of the Mihos supporters is quite balanced between parties and ideologies; details are here: http://www.surveyusa…
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And attacking Healey has been too fundamental to Mihos’ campaign for him to have a lot of votes from people who would consider her worth voting for.
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Finally, it’s my sense that people don’t abandon third-party candidates to make their votes count. Can anyone present any data? For instance, I’ve heard that about 3/4 of the Nader voters in 2000 actually had a preference between Bush and Gore, yet decided to make their vote “count” as a statement. But I don’t know how many people considered Nader but made the other choice.
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I agree with ncelik 100 %.
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The trend is downward.
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How do you explain to a working person – that you can’t remember writing a $5000 check for a DNA test?
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Nonetheless – what we need is a blistering Patriotmajority.com advertisement on the Healey husband tax break deal up in Prides Crossing. My favorite 527 should do a blood curdling ad accusing the Lt. Gov and her family of stealing tax payer money.
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Part if the insider stench of 16 years of GOP rule – etc.
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Mordecai
Consider the source.
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Suffolk polling is no good. It was weak in 04 (I remember because my sister was a student there at the time), and it was especially bad in the primary… remember they were the only to have Gabrielli ahead, and ahead by a large margin in late August. They’ve had lower Patrick numbers every poll than their competitors.
it’s very odd. I wonder why they’re always off in the same direction. I mean, it’s not like they’re a fly-by-night outfit. But that “Gabs by 8” poll was really out in left field.