2002 Results
Mitt: 1009k
Shannon: 986k
Greens: 77k
Libertarian: 23k
2006
Greens: 47k of Jill Stein’s Greens will vote for Deval.
Libertarian: No great affection for Healey
Christy: 60k from Healey, 20k from Deval
Healey overall with Mitt message (minus jobs): -110k from Mitt
Debate format where everyone slams Healey/status quo: -30k from Mitt
Deval overall with Shannon message (plus fresh air): +80k from Shannon
Healey scare tactics (assuming more ads to come): takes 120k, um, “lunchpail Dems and independents” away from Deval, of which 30k goes to Christy, 90k to her
Healey scare tactics: costs her 80k from educated independents, 50k to Deval, 30k don’t vote
Deval Organization/GOTV: +20k over Shannon
Net:
Deval versus Shannon: +47, -20, +80, -120, +50, +20
Healey versus Mitt: -60, -140, +90, -50
Deval: +57 over Shannon
Healey: -160 over Mitt
FINAL TALLY
Healey: 859k votes (43%)
Deval: 1043k votes (52%)
Christy: 110k votes (5%)
What do you think?
Where I’d adjust your analysis is in Patrick’s motivating more marginal voters to get out — you’re implicitly assuming that the voting population will be more or less the same while the primary turnout is some indication that overall turnout might go up in the general.
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Is there interest in a contest to predict the exact numbers? I offered a T-shirt for the best prediction, right after the primary, if I got at least 20 entries. I only got four, but the post was only visible for a short time. Should
I try again?
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dave MB
i agree that DP will turn out more left-wing voters who are much more excited about his candidacy than shannon obrien’s.
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but i also believe a few gabrieli and reilly voters will stay home.
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which is why my guess is dead heat in turnout.
…and in the privacy of the voting booth, who KNOWS what might happen…
Telltale signs that a Reilly voter was in your voting booth: forgot envelope with scribbles of butter, eggs, milk.
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Telltale signs a Gabrieli voter was in your voting booth: left Blackberry behind.
Telltale sign that many of us will be voting for Mihos: the fact that Deval’s people can’t get past the primary.
I don’t see Mihos losing any of his current 9%. I don’t think either DP or KMH has provided any particular reason for his voters to change their minds, and I don’t think the race will be close enough for them to think they could swing it.
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i tend to buy your second point….
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and i certainly agree that neither candidate has provided a “positive” particular reason to leave mihos…
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….but you don’t think that a few mihos voters might be peeled back to healey by driving up deval’s negatives?
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is it that you don’t think that deval’s negatives are rising thru the ads plus the howie/gerry callahan effect?
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or you don’t think that rising dp negatives will have any effect on mihos voters?
I think Mihos voters have already decided whom to give their votes against Patrick to. If anything, I think it’s more likely that he’ll gain a couple of points as the ads drive up both his opponents’ negatives. Again, if it looks like Mihos’ total is less than the difference between the two leaders, there’s no incentive to switch.
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I don’t see any evidence that shows that any of Howie’s loyal followers were ever potential Patrick voters.
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I admit, I listen to the show, but I’m no follower. I listen to it because there’s nothing else on.
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Have you even heard his callers? Many are crypto-racists (like Carr). They generalize anything that doesn’t resemble themselves as bad, as something that needs to be purged from our borders. Blacks, Hispanics, Brazilians, you name it. Half of the callers would be fired from their jobs if they ever talked that way while on the clock.
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Would any of them have ever considered voting for Patrick in the first place?
We are still three weeks out, so I don’t know how things will break. However, seeing some trends, my guess right now would be:
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Deval:50%
Healey: 36%
Mihos: 13%
Ross: 1%
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I believe Mihos is a much bigger player than the Goldstein model describes. I think the negative Healey ads are driving the right-side independents that would often go GOP elsewhere. Last time they went to Mitt, this time they may not move to Deval, but they won’t go to Healey. I think those votes are going to Mihos.
is that a lot of people who are independent and Repub are going to secretly vote Deval at the polls. I could be wrong, but I’ve seen some evidence of this already. So, I’m going out on a limb:
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Deval – 56%
Healey – 32%
Mihos – 10%
Ross – 2%
No, we win by at least 20% points. The latest Suffolk poll that had Deval in the lead by 13% also had him at 39% the day before the primary, when he raked in 50% of the vote. All the polls underestimated his level of grassroots support, and they still do. The poll that had him up by 18% is probably more accurate, but I bet it’s still 2-3% above that. My prediction:
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Deval: 56%
Healey: 35%
Mihos: 8%
Ross: 1%
I have a $1 riding on Healey not getting to 40%, which is why I make phone calls most nights.
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Deval Patrick 53%
Kerry Healey 39%
Christy Mihos 7%
Ross/Other < 1%
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The phone id’s are very strong in our suburban town. Let’s keep it up on 3 more weeks. I am so looking forward to putting my feet up that night and watching a wive wash the R’s out to sea. It will feel good knowing the work we put in in MA…and everywhere else.
Mihos has pulled his ads and may, or may not, get them back on the air soon. I don’t see him getting 5%. I’m thinking that of the percent of the population that is A) compelled to vote but 2) cannot be compelled to vote for either a black man or a white woman doesn’t exceed 1%. Combine that with the angry vote that doesn’t get to Healey, 3, maybe 4 %. Other than Carla Howell (L) for pres. in 2000, no third party candidate has done better than 3 percent in either the 2002 or 1998 Gov race or the 2002, 2000 or 1996 Senate. (source:http://www.uselectio…)
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Healey, on the other hand, is digging straight to China and, unless she does a pretty clear about-face pretty quickly we are going to see a real implosion. She’s also the first Republican in recent memory who is, in effect, running from the incumbent and thus does not get the effect of incumbency that Celluci enjoyed in 1998 and that was not an issue in 2002. In fact, since she should be running with incumbency (you’d think!) but isn’t, this is gonna hurt her big time. Also, her relentless focus on crime issues, without the endorsement of the majority of law enforcement groups and with a rising level of crime, particularly violent crime, smacks of a suicide pact with Gov Goodhair…
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John Kerry was also on the ticket in 2002 and he garnered 1.6 million votes (80%). Last time Kennedy was on the ticket he garnered 1.8 million (which was only 72% ’cause it was a presidential election year). So Massachusetts is ready to reward those whom it likes. In 1996 Kerry eked out a win against Weld who, while negative, was substantive on the issues and was not rabid. He had some great numbers and might have won if he was a little less smarmy and had appeared more engaged as Gov.
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All this, combined with general distrust of Republicans, high crime and a wobbly economy I’d give Deval Patrick 67%, Healey 29%, Mihos 3.5% if the election were held today.