Loser: The Anti-Marriage Crowd
Legislative shenanigans aside, the folks who are against marriage for some of us had another bad election night as their pet issue stayed off the electoral map.
The ranks of anti-marriage legislators continue to dwindle, reflecting public opinion. Remember how this issue was going to be a wedge between Deval Patrick and black voters? Didn’t happen.
Winner: Massachusetts Republicans
Seriously: the state GOP dodged a bullet with the failure of Green-Rainbow to challenge the Republicans’ No.-2 status. The party will live to challenge Democrats another day.
Imagine, though, if the Greens had fielded candidates against the 5 uncontested Republican Senators. Even if they all lost–and you never know–challenging the incumbents with Green progressive ideas would have set the stage for a fight for who gets to be the opposition party. Think GOP as No. 3. But they got a pass.
Loser: Green-Rainbow
They’re back as an officially recognized party, Jill Stein got 18%, and everybody loves Grace. But they still lost by setting their sights too low.
It’s not fair, it’s arguably not democratic, but in a two-party system the only way to become a player is to become one of the two parties. There was a vacancy this year as the state GOP consumed itself in an orgy of hypocrisy, incompetence, opportunism, and hate.
You can’t beat someone with nobody, though, and except for the Gov’s race and (I think) one legislative district the Greens cherry-picked the easy stuff and sat out the fight.
Now instead of challenging the crippled Republicans for the slot of No.-2 party, they’ll be slugging it out with the Working Families Party for the dubious distinction of No. 3.
–Who’s got more?
Winners (maybe): areas west of 495
Worcester clearly gains with Tim Murray’s ascent. Deval showed a lot of interest in the western part of the state during the campaign; if either he follows through or they can hold him to it, they will be less ignored than they used to be.
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Loser: His Expediency
His image would have been better served by his successor winning, especially considering how completely she ran on his record. Weld won re-election and Cellucci won as an incumbent, so Mitt will have to spin at very high RPMs to convince people that MA simply hates Republican governors.
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Winner: Essex County sheriff Frank Cousins
He’s now the top GOP elected official in terms of the number of people he serves.
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Winner: John Walsh
After toiling for years as the democratic party honcho in Plymouth County, John’s smart campaign and excellent ground game made him a king maker. Add in an extra boost he gets for paternalism with Healey’s thugs annoying his son. He can be or do anything he wants in the administration or in the commonwealth.
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Loser: Bill Galvin
He took flack for not debating Bonifaz. He took flack for not debating Stein. He took even more flack for his silly little microdebate. He took flack for experimenting with nasty machines without telling anyone. Boston elections has a meltdown and he seemed to come in to close the barn door after the ballots had to be galloped to the polls by mounted state troopers. Bonifaz and Stein, as well as other potential candidates, have a real opportunity to shadow Galvin during this term.
Trickle up comments that “everybody loves Grace”, but before the campaign few people knew her. So she’s a winner.
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Loser: Frank Skeffington
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Close race? Nope. To Liberal? Nope. Taxes…try crime (although it was a substitution to the “fear and anger” recipe).
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I was right about the negative stuff–but I only thought they were going to call Deval a liar. But the shadowy figure (black man?) in the parking lot and revealing the brother-in-law incident–that crossed an obvious line that created push back.
The voters wanted something completely different and then voted for it.
I like your angle with the Greens vying to be the 2nd party… but they’re on the wrong ideological side of the Dems to pull it off, since the Dems can always move a little bit to the left if the Greens start getting too powerful.
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The libertarians needed to run a bunch of candidates in places where the GOP didn’t to stay fresh, and in places where the Dems didn’t to keep the heat on the GOP.
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In the balance of power, its pretty clear that the advantage is: Dems > GOP > Greens > Libs. The Greens are gaining on the GOP, but I don’t really think the Libs are, since they’ve been so quiet of late.
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Besides, a stronger libertarian party is good for the Dems. Sure, the Dems might lose some votes to the libs, but it marginalizes the GOP too, and possibly into obscurity.
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I like multiple parties — but the opposition certainly doesn’t have to be the GOP to be considered opposition.
What the heck happened to them anyway? They seem to have vanished.
I remember hearing something about a free state project where Libertarians were supposed to move into NH and take over local politics.
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http://freestateproj…
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Since NH keeps getting bluer in every election, it looks like they’ve failed.
Winners
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Organized Labor. Ran negative ads against Healey to cover for Deval — many desired positions taken by the campaign including Card Check (although I think it will go nowhere). Mass Nurses got to flex when he strayed.
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Western Mass. Delivered big for Deval (ok I’m biased), but check out those landslides.
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Nancy Stolberg. Not as visible to the media as Walsh, but just as instrumental to the win. Also played a big part in the 2004 NH win for Kerry, I believe.
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MA Political Blogs.
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Losers
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Single-payer healthcare activists. They dogged Deval early, wouldn’t accept his plan for getting there eventually and didn’t participate in the biggest step to single-payer that has happened since Medicare/Medicaid. We will get there in spite of and probably without them.
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Third parties. Lost the ballot initiative, didn’t make a dent anywhere — history shows that the Green will lose the party designation again. If the Republicans ran a SecState candidate and Galvin would have been forced to debate, they might not have gotten it this time. They need to learn to build from the bottom — start with School Committee and do a great job — but they are too impatient.
If the Republicans ran a SecState candidate and Galvin would have been forced to debate, they might not have gotten it this time.
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Actually, they still received 16% of the vote for their Treasurer Candidate, Jamie O’Keefe.
My understanding of the law is that it is the top of the ticket candidates that need to make the qualifying percentage, otherwise they retain their status as a political designation, but not a party. Can someone check with the Secretary’s office on this one? I could be wrong…
Winning any statewide office does the trick. That’s why the “Working Families” party targeted the Auditor’s race.
Winners
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JIM MCGOVERN: The great kingmaker and initial supporter of both Deval and Tim. Between the landslide victory for the ticket he had a huge hand in creating and the plum majority seat he has on the House Rule Committee, Jim McGovern’s influence on Massachusetts politics will rival that of John Kerry’s and Ted Kennedy’s. Jim is the new powerbroker in the Commonwealth and ruler of the Central Massachusetts political machine. Damn, I love the guy…
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Grassroots/Netroots: Deval Patrick and Tim Murray could not have pulled off such large primary victory margins without the huge grassroots organizations and netroots communication/support as they had. Deval spent very little of his own personal cash and well overspent, and Tim was outspent by each of his primary opponents- yet they trounced their opponents on 9/19. They took that momentum, staved off poll-driven complacency, and kicked ass on election day.
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Average voters: Whether they actually believed in Deval or were simply just fed up with the way the GOP has run the state and the nation, average voters in Massachusetts spoke with one overwhelming voice: We want to try something new. They got the positive message they wanted in candidates who delivered it well, back by an organization that was omnipresent. Simply put, they liked what they saw, decided to give it a shot, and now have an opportunity to have government work for them.
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Limbo
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MA GOP: Sure, they tanked and their “Corner Office at all costs” strategery failed, but they’ve been hit with a pail of cold water. This loss was the best thing to happen to them. The Republicans will learn that they need grassroots and need to develop candidates from the bottom-up, rather than rely on money and TV ads, to win. Also, the Democrats now have the Legislature and the Corner Office, which means they’ll have nobody to blame since they control everything. The GOP could capitalize on that reality if progress doesn’t happen as rapidly as the campaign hype may have led voters to believe.
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The GOP has some opportunity in this, if they’re wise enough to jump on it.
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Losers
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Big Money: As has been said by many on this blog, money can’t buy you love. Strong grassroots organization plus positive free media coverage proved to nullify neverending TV ads and direct mail.
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Political Discourse: This race was nasty and devoid of substance. No campaign in the general election, except maybe Grace Ross’s, ran on issues. Healey ran on fear of everything, Deval ran on “hope” and “change”, and Mihos was Mihos. Personality and positivity drove the victor’s campaign, not ideas.
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Of course, now that the campaign is over, my hope is that we do see substantive discussions and action take place in the walls of the State House. I trust Deval and Tim will move the debate forward.
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This is so right. McGovern is a force to be reckoned with in his quiet and earnest way. He is The Man in Central Massachusetts and commands an enormous and devoted following. This guy walks on water around here and it’s not at all unusual to hear the word “love” used frequently to describe how people feel about him. He worked quietly and tirelessly behind the scenes talking up Patrick first, then Murray, garnering the players one by one. Dude is the master of his domain in a rather classical v. Seinfeldian sense.
Jim is indeed beloved, not just in Central Mass, but in many areas around the state. Two years ago, when Jim had an opponent, I was running an election day phone bank. At some point in the day, we switched people from a script with Jim McGovern and the state senator, to just the state senator. The conversation went something like this:
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“The new script is pretty much the same, except don’t mention Jim McGovern. These poor people don’t have the good fortune to have Jim McGovern as their congressman.”
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Response from the volunteer: “How can they go on living?”
Early Endorsers of Deval or Tim are winners. I remember Jim walking with Deval into the Convention in 2005 — we had supporting lit on the streets and in the hall.
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I will arbitrarily define early as before the caucuses of 2006.
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Around my neck of the woods, Gov. Councilor Peter Vickery brought a few dozen activists who volunteered for him to Deval and endorsed in April 2005 — he was talking up Tim very early, but not sure when he endorsed.
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Northampton Mayor Claire Higgins endorsed both Deval and Tim early.
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I think Reps. Ellen Story (Amherst) and John Scibak (Hadley, South Hadley, Easthampton) were with Deval very early.
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PDM (Progressive Dems of Massachusetts) endorsed Deval along with Robert Reich on Labor day of 2005.
My hometown rep and mayor – John Keenan and Kim Driscoll – were both very early endorsers, bringing Deval to Salem back in September of 2005 I recall.
I don’t know if Gabs was a winner or a loser. Normally I’d say three strikes and you’re out, but this one he jumped in so late that I don’t know if you can hold it against him. The others had two year head starts on him.
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He also showed up on Deval’s stage on election night to endorse him, minutes after giving his own concession speech. I think that gave him a lot of good will and was increadibly classy. I know his office was getting calls the day after the election from Patrick supporters saying how much they appreciated it and that if Gabs ever ran again they would back him because of it.
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My guess is that he’s down but not out. Then again, when you have that kind of money to drop on a race, I don’t think you can ever really be out.
He was my candidate for governor during the primary. I hope he does run again (not for Governor, obviously, at least not while Deval’s in!), and that people make good on that commitment to help if he does decide to run again.
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Gabrieli did get a late start this year and I argue that Shannon O’Brien lost in 2002 (not Chris), so I think he still has at least another pitch to swing at.
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If he does decide to run again, I hope that it would be early and not require him to spend his own money, just so that people can’t make charges that he’s trying to buy an election.
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He could be a potential Senate candidate if Kerry doesn’t run for re-election…
I agree that it looks awful that guys with a bajillion bucks can just jump into a race with only days before the convention and be credible candidates. Then again, its not very fair either that you can have an AG sit in office for years and years and just build up the warchest.
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We need some serious campaign finance overhauls so that the best candidate can come in and win the race, regardless of whether or not one has a Constitutional office or a personal fortune. Hawai’i has a voluntary campaign finance system with voluntary taxpayer assessments but it was just reported that almost no one uses it because its almost a sure bet you will lose. Certainly there must be a better way.
Before I vote to send anyone to Washington, I’d like to see a little more of a public-service resume.
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I define that pretty broadly, but to me philanthropy alone doesn’t cut it, no matter how creative or enlightened. I know that not everyone agrees, that’s just how I feel.
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So I hope that Gabrielli, who is obviously a stout fellow and a bright guy, can find a way to pay those kind of dues.
Performed through elected office in order to qualify someone for another office? I don’t think so.
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Gabrieli’s philanthropy has done more to improve education than the last two or three administrations. It’s not how it’s done, it’s what is done.
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This idea of “paying dues” is troublesome to me, and lends itself to career politicians feeling entitled to higher office. Deval Patrick didn’t serve in any elected office prior to his election as Governor. There are also many other elected officials in Washington and in state capitals all over the nation who never held office prior to being elected to whatever job they’re in.
And no, I’m not just talking about electoral or government service either. Someone from a true grass-roots movement arguably has the kind of experience I think is important.
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Again, I am aware that others might not agree with that. Maybe I am a minority of one. But I’d feel a whole lot better about the idea of Gabrielli for U.S. Senate if he would spend some time in state or at least (for goodness sakes) local government, or as a career advocate for the poor or the environment or for social justice.
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That said, I like the guy and have tremendous respect for some of the things he has decided to do with his wealth.
Gabs was the first chair of MassINC, and then founded and ran Mass2020. Thats not just writing checks, thats rolling up your sleeves and actually getting to work.
But when you mention “someone from a true grass-roots movement”, are you referring to Deval? If so, and this isn’t meant as an attack, Deval did not lead any “true” grassroots movement prior to beginning his own odyssey for elected office. This is also no attack on Deval, for whom I proudly voted. It is only a statement of fact.
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I appreciate your opinion, though we disagree. I don’t understand why some choose not to hold private sector and non-profit experience in the same esteem as public sector experience. Has the Romney experience soured some? Deval came to his new office from the private sector as well.
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I do believe that Gabrieli would be a qualified candidate for high elected office because of his private and non-profit experience. He would bring a fresh perspective to the job, someone who has spent a career in analyzing budgets and investments, seeking a good return on those investments, managing efficiency and effectiveness out of operations, finding ways to improve education without having to rely on career politicians to be proactive, etc.
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Just because someone has held office doesn’t necessarily make them qualified for higher office. Likewise, just because someone hasn’t held office doesn’t necessarily mean they lack the skills, vision, and experience necessary to effectively govern.
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Agree to disagree?
I promise to give him a fresh look if and when he runs for something again. I don’t want my views to evolve into a dogma, but are (obviously) how I feel.
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Since you ask: I thought Patrick’s public-service resume (basically the DOJ job) was thin, but adequate. Reilly’s was the strongest, but he was not the best person for the job for other reasons.
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How about starting in a place like the City Council? For $15 million, he could personally pay every voter in his ward $1000, and buy out the incumbent for $500,000.
Here we go again… liberals attacking another liberal who happens to be a self-made son of immigrants who happened to be successful through hard work and talent. So what if he’s rich. So what if he spent his own money in order to be catch up to another rich candidate who had been running since early 2005 and a career politician who had been running all of his adult life?
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I don’t hear anybody criticizing Gabrieli for spending his well-earned fortune on helping needy children get access to more educational opportunities or seeking to raise the quality of public discourse in the state?
I was for Patrick. I went to the convention as an alternate for him. (I got elected on the Woody Allen principle — by just showing up.)
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I was moved by Patrick’s speeches there. I liked Gabrieli’s. His “reverse the curse” tee shirts were very clever. I liked the eagerness to win the governorship back from the Republicans that suggested.
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Reilly’s post-primary disappearance surprised me. It still surprises me. There are many states where one would never get a governor as good as Reilly would be as a governor. His campaign disappointed me. Will he return to public service?
Initially, I was a little taken aback by Reilly’s disappearance. But after remembering that he worked through the political machine, “paying his dues”, to “earn” his chance to run for a job he was supposedly entitled to, I think he opted to walk away out of disappointment. I don’t think he runs for governor again, though he’ll probably work for the good of the party.
still have three times the voter registration of the Greens. Also, there was just a near-complete turnover of the Libertarian state committee, a group that opposed candidate recruitment and fundraising being replaced by a group with the opposite opinions. The Libertarians avoided the trap the Greens fell into, of capturing “Political Party” (major party) rather than “Political Designation” (minor party) status. The Libertarian shadow party “Liberty for Massachusetts” objective, running candidates for a majority of the seats in the State House within four election cycles, may now advance into play.
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(The Working Families Party had to have major party status (and Q1 to pass) in order to have the effect they wanted, and their founders must now strive diligently to ensure they are not captured during the next Presidential primary, failing which they enjoy the fate of Connecticut for Lieberman, which was just captured by the registered CfL Party member.)
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The Republicans may now get to form a circular firing squad. On the other hand, without a governor, they no longer have a top-of-ticket egomaniac draining Republican donor coffers and shipping the money to Republican national campaigns, so they may actually be stronger rather than weaker by getting losing every single statewide office.
Across the country, turnout was described as “impressive” and “high.” Especially, women and students did well at coming out, too.
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Also, a female Majority leader.
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Abortion Rights (Initiatve) in SD