Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

New Virginia Numbers, from Noon Today — Webb by 8

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A SurveyUSA poll, conducted exclusively for 9NEWS NOW shows Democrat Jim Webb is pulling away. Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they will vote for Webb. Forty four percent chose Republican George Allen. And two percent say they’d vote for Independent Green Party Candidate Glenda Parker. One percent were undecided.

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      • Allen has many Mass. GOP fans.  In fact, he’s ahead of Mitt in the Poltical Derby web site.

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        BUT – he loses this race, it’s Mitt vs. Rudy in ’08.  And I’d be happy with either/both!

        • George Allen representing your party as a presidential candidate?  Are you for real?  A man who admits to spitting on his, a man who relishes his Confederate past, a man whose bigotry is widely known?  This is the best the Republican Party has to offer this nation?  That’s shameful. 

          • Which is why I am HAPPY Allen may lose!  So he will be removed from further consideration.  That said, he DOES have many supporters – of which I am not one.  I am NOT the entire Republican Party, although things would run more smoothly if I were!  :>)

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            The only thing that would make me happier is if Hillary lost as well, but short of lightening striking down from the skies, I don’t see that happening.

            • I’m relieved.  I must have misunderstood what you wrote.  Personally, I do not want Hillary to run in ’08.  I would prefer that she and Kerry get out of the way. 

              • Who will be the first reporter to ask Mitt Romney what it was like growing up with 7 grandmothers.

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                I’m surprised he’s not a fat person đŸ™‚

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                That will be the end of his run…..

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                I too wish Hillary and Kerry would step aside.

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                Be interesting to see if Kerry does NOT announce he’s not seeking re-election in two years…..supposedly that was coming in two weeks.  Any delay in that means he realizes he’s toast…

                • …who asked John f. Kennedy when he was having the special direct line installed to the Pope!

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                  Shame on you for mocking a person’s faith just because you are ignorant about it.  >:~(

                • It could be asked by someone who said “I though you were EXCITED over a black man being elected to hold office in a state for the first time” đŸ˜€  (any other faces we can use)

        • George Allen representing your party as a presidential candidate?  Are you for real?  A man who admits to spitting on his wife, a man who relishes his Confederate past, a man whose bigotry is widely known?  This is the best the Republican Party has to offer this nation?  That’s shameful. 

        • Allen’s Presidentail ambitions are as toast as Charlie Brown’s Thanksgiving Dinner.  It’s like an entire loaf of toast. 

          • Charlie Brown is surging in his race against Abramoff-tainted John Doolittle in CA-04.

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        • The nationwide Republican base would never support Rudy.  Here’s a man who had his girlfriend living in the Governor’s mansion before his divorce was even finalized, and who lived with a gay couple in early 2000.  The last piece of legilation he signed was a protection for same-sex couples.  He is pro-gay rights and pro-choice. He has no chance with the Republican base.  But somehow you left out McCain.  At this point, it’s between McCain and Romney, none of the other Republican hopefuls are realistic candidates.

          • …I saw him in Maine about two months ago.

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            He is REALLY OLDER now.  I know the arguments about Reagan’s age, but he was more vigorous, energetic.  McCain seemed frail back in august.

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            I’ll let you know after this weekend.

            • can you handicap what you’re hearing about his chances?

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              the same thing that drives me absolutely zany with loathing – his posturing on Schiavo – wouldn’t that play well to the conservative base? 

              • …when it was proven that she really WAS brain dead.  Nobody is looking to bring that back.

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                Frist has almost no chance.

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                Romney (strange, but true) is a real front runner, with Rudy and McCain.  Huckabee is a strong Veep contender.  Allen is tumbling down.  Condi has many fans, as does Powell, but I don’t think either want to run.

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                Check out the Derby – they handicap Dems too!

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                http://politicalderb…

                • She was in a persistent vegetative state since 1998, what was it 7 years later Frist saw a video and disputed the 7 YEARS of doctor’s diagnosis and said that she responds to visual stimuli.  Don’t post that the autopsy finally confirmed that she was PVS.  When the fact of the matter was that Frist used the case to push himself to the wingnuttia of the Republican party.

                • You are correct in your assessment – but we were speaking about the POLITICAL perception of the Schiavo matter.  The PUBLIC – who are not doctors like Frist – were finally convinced by the autopsy reports about her PVS.  And again, I was ansering the question about the desire of Frist to bring back the Schiavo matter, as a matter of political handicapping, not science.

                • He’s not a serious contender.  He has name recognition from 9/11 and that’s why he seems viable, but he’s a staunch pro-choice, pro-gay rights guy, he was practically run out of the mayor’s office pre-9/11, and he has a personal history that is not palatable to the Religious Right.  It’s Romney or McCain.  Romney’s got the looks and the youth, but he’s got issues as a candidate.  Still, I’d say it’s between the two.  The one man who would have been the best candidate for the GOP can’t run because his brother is a disaster; Jeb Bush.  Jeb Bush would win Florida, he’d appeal to hispanics, he’s a bright guy, but a third Bush presidency is not going to happen…in 2008 at least.

                • We just had the vigorous young man with the wise old sage as a dynamic duo in the White House.  How about the sere elder statesman with the glossy younger man with impeccable morals and a million dollar smile this time around?

        • since Mitt is using every stop as a boost to higher aspirations, what do you think hes reaching for by running for president? đŸ™‚

  3. Lets not get too excited. There’s a USA Today/Gallup poll today that shows Allen by 3, 49-46. A poll over the weekend showed Webb by 1.

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    Keep working. This one will probably come down to the ground game, Call For Change, and getting out the vote – as will Mo, Mt, and Md (hmmm, most of the M’s).

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    Remember, 1 in 20 polls isn’t even within the margin of error. 8 points for Webb could be it (or 9 points for Tester or 4 points for McCaskill, or even all of the above). Don’t count anything yet.

  4. If I put Rhode Island, New Jersey, Virginia and Maryland on the Dem column (that’s not that much of a stretch).

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    Then it means it’s down to Montana and Missouri.  Pollster has both states with Democrat leads but within the margin of error.  If the Dems can pick up those states then it 51-49 Democrats (and no Tricky Dick for tie breaks if 50-50).

    • …maybe you meant Penn and Ohio…those two, along with RI are mentioned as the “easy” pick ups.  Montana, Missouri and Virgina are the “to close to call” ones we need to win…not to mention the ever increasing long shot of Tennessee (which saw some promising polls come out today.

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      I am confused…do we need 6 pick ups for an out right 51 and Lieberman and go screw himself and if we get 5, then we need to beg Lieberman to caucus with us?

      • Agreed that I’m being optimistic here, but if Virginia is added to the Dems, the ones I listed are not “easy” pickups but are trending towards Dems.  But still close.

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        Holy Joe did say that he will caucus with the Dems, but he would vote “Independently”.  I do like the idea of Lieberman not holding the seat over us to get on all of the committees.

      • “I am confused…do we need 6 pick ups for an out right 51 and Lieberman and go screw himself and if we get 5, then we need to beg Lieberman to caucus with us?”

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        Yes, we need 6 for 51. And if Lieberman is one of them, then he needs to caucus with the Dems. He has said he will, and I consider it quite likely, but not 100%.

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        If its a 50-50 tie, then the tiebreak goes to the Reps because the tiebreaker is Cheney.

      • Lieberman has explicitly said he’ll caucus with the Democrats.  Which is a good thing because we need 51 to win, and, if we win, it’s likely to be exactly 51, including Lieberman.

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        I’d rather have the Senate and have to swallow our pride about welcoming Lieberman back to the fold than not have the Senate.

  5. Va is by no means a lock.

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    Really, it comes down to 3 sets.

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    Real toss-ups: Va, Mo, Mt – Dems need all 3 to make a majority

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    Dem Spoilers: Tn, Az – while trailing, both of these could be in play and could make up for losses above.

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    Rep Spoilers: RI, Md – both definitely leaning Dem, but not huge leads, with some polls lately making them much more questionable. Either of those could ruin Dem chances for the Senate.

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    Btw, the House looks much more likely, but don’t be counting any chickens there yet either.

    • But if you asked me last week if the Dems had any shot in the Senate I would have said “No”.  Now I’m not so sure. 

      • is a dreadful candidate, and his race has nothing to do with it.  Just like Deval is an excellent candidate, and his race has nothing to do with it.

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        Furthermore, as you perhaps had forgotten, Ed Brooke was the first black statewide officeholder in MA.

      • Come on, Peter.  I know of no one on here who said that they would support a candidate of color–Deval or anyone else–simply because of his/her race.  I personally found that Deval’s politics lined up best with mine (though you can see that I’ve been plenty critical of him, sometimes to the dismay of others on BMG).  I do think that it’s a social good to see Black men in powerful positions, which is disproportionately rare in our society today.  But Steele’s politics  and his potential contribution to a Republican Senate majority, like Ken Blackwell’s politics and record in Ohio, vastly outweigh the fact that they’d be leaders of color.

  6. Via Kausfiles.com

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    Tomorrow’s Dick Morris Column Today: The so-called “Incumbent Rule” holds that undecided voters break almost uniformly against an incumbent–meaning that if in the final pre-election polls an incumbent isn’t over 50%,** he or she is toast.

    The 2004 presidential election defied the rule–Bush got his share of the undecideds. But just in case the Rule still has some juice, it’s worth applying it to the current hot Senate races.  Here’s the result:

    Missouri: Talent’s in much bigger trouble that it seems. The poll’s are close, but he’s the incumbent, and he only has 46.5% in the RCP average.

    Montana: Burns is in less good shape than recent reports would indicate. Sure, he’s surging. But he’s still around 45%.

    Virginia: Allen is a goner. The polls are neck and neck, but they’re neck and neck at 46%.

  7. Driving through the south western portion of Virginia is almost like driving through western MA.  The proprotion of Webb vs. Allen signs is almost exactly the same as Deval vs. Healey in the Berkshires.  I feel like I’m in the middle of it all.  I live in NC close enough to Tennessee to be bombarded by the anti Ford ads.  The local Asheville stations are playing the Charles Taylor attack ads against Heath Shuler ad naseum, and when working in Roanoke during the week, there’s Allen every night attacking Jim Webb.  From discussions in this area, there is still traditional support for Allen, but it seems to be very weak.  I’m guessing many conservatives are just going to stay home.  BTW, if anyone has any connections in this area, I am desperately seeking contacts for a drinking liberally exerience tomorrow evening.  I will be celebrating for Deval no matter what!

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