State Senate election rollcall

Comments

1. davemb says

   November 1, 2006 at 12:54 pm

   is pretty safe — his opponent is the head of the Smith College student Republican club.  Stan has had mailings, yard signs, and radio ads on the Air America affiliate made by local radio alum Rachel Maddow.  I believe he did debate her, as he debated his 2004 opponent, as a useful civics lesson.  I think I’ve seen only one sign for Leblanc, at the I-91 route 9 interchange in Northampton.  Stan is wildly popular in these parts, particular on the UMass campus where he is well known to be our best friend in the legislature.

2. hoyapaul says

   November 1, 2006 at 1:36 pm

   I think Timilty is in theory vulnerable, based upon the relatively low percentage (around 52%, I believe) he received in the open seat contest in 2004, and the fact that the area (Attleboro, etc.) is one of the more conservative areas of the state.

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   However, I get the impression that Atwill is not that strong of a candidate, and in a recent debate his main focus seemed to be on illigal immigrants and anti-stem cell, the first of which isn’t a huge issue with voters in the district and the second of which is just politically suicidal.

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   If I had to guess, based upon the incredible lack of competition in the Senate, that everything stays pretty much the same. The Dems might even pick up a seat (Lees’ open seat).

3. eury13 says

   November 1, 2006 at 1:54 pm

   I guarantee that the following Dems have nothing to worry about:
   Dianne Wilkerson
   Robert O’Leary
   Steven Pangiotakos
   Susan Fargo
   Brian Joyce
   Marian Walsh
   Hariette Chandler
   Ed Augustus

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   The rest are probably safe too, but I don’t know enough about the races to be sure. My bet is that Candaras will pick up Lees’ seat and the senate will have 1 Republican less than it did this year.

   • cephme says

     November 1, 2006 at 4:21 pm

     and has a noticable presence in our area, but I honestly do not think she is going to beat Fargo. The better Patrick does the better Fargo will do. I am going to be sporting signs for both Patrick and Fargo on election day.

4. shillelaghlaw says

   November 1, 2006 at 4:20 pm

   The only way Hedlund loses, is if voters confuse his opponent for the real Stephen Lynch. If Jim Cantwell or Bob Delahunt couldn’t beat Hedlund, there’s not a chance in hell that this screwball can win.

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   p>I posted the following analysis back in June:

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   Simple. Hedlund’s unbeatable. (0.00 / 0) 
   Look at the list of well-funded, well-polished, and all-around good Democratic challengers he’s fended off over the years, and you’ll realize that Hedlund is unbeatable. I’ll give you a few reasons why.

   1. Hingham, Cohasset, Norwell,and Duxbury. Here there be Swamp Yankees- and Swamp Yuppies! Not exactly two demographics that are reliable Democrats- especially in state legislative politics. You might see a victory in these towns for Joe DeNucci, Bill Delahunt, or Garrett Bradley, but give these folks a race with a real Republican to vote for, and its lights out for the Democrat.

   2. Hull and Weymouth. Blue collar towns. Hedlund is a working-class hero type of guy. Pro-gun. Gets high marks from organized labor.

   3. Marshfield and Scituate. Perfect storm mix of the last two groups of towns. You have a combination of the old Irish Riviera, post-1974 emigres from Southie and Dorchester, new money Swamp Yuppies, and old time Swamp Yankees.

   End result: Senator-for-life Bob Hedlund. (Unless Garret Bradley decided he wanted to be Senator….)

    

5. hokun says

   November 1, 2006 at 8:05 pm

   Her district is far too solidly Democrat to even consider voting for a Republican.  We’re talking about a district that elects a Green/Rainbow candidate to City Counci and runs John Bonifaz for Secretary of State.  How many of these voters are going to give up on a solid liberal Democrat in favor of an inexperienced Republican?

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   If Samiyah gets 20% of the vote, she’ll have done an amazing job.  I simply can’t imagine how she’d get more than 10,000 votes in Wilkerson’s district and there will be high Democratic turnout because of Patrick’s ground game, which also directly targets a lot of Wilkerson-inclined voters. 

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   Considering that I haven’t seen a single Samiyah Diaz sign and that she’s not generating any buzz the way that Sonia Chang-Diaz did, I can’t see Diaz making this race competitive.