Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Is John Kerry vulnerable?

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Apparently some Republicans think that they could run Kerry Healey, rich guy Chris Egan or “Gang of Five” Sen. Scott Brown (Update: Or Charlie Baker, or Curt Schilling, hoo ha) against John Kerry. And indeed, the current approval ratings for Kerry don’t look good:  40% approve of the job he’s doing, 53% disapprove. But to kill the suspense: No, he’s not particularly vulnerable.

A useful comparison: Mitt Romney’s approval ratings were in the mediocre-to-okay range, up to the point that he decided he was a full-time prez candidate and treating the governorship as a neglected hobby — or even as something he seemed to actively detest. Then they went south.

And similarly, I suspect that a lot of the dissatisfaction with Kerry springs from his hanging onto his presidential dreams — and perhaps therefore being perceived that he’s looking past the folks back home. I’m not at all convinced that he’s ignored the state at all; but Ted Kennedy certainly doesn’t have that perception problem, so TK must be doing something right in comparison.

In any event, this is actually a pretty simple problem for Kerry to fix, if he wants to cruise in ’08: Get in touch with as many people at home as possible. Speaking from personal experience, he’s done some outreach and availability — including invites to his birthday party — for jes’ folks, including bloggers; that’s great. I’m a big fan of the Bernie Sanders-style town meeting, getting out to listen to ordinary people, and to take notes. Kerry would do well in these settings.

I’m actually of the opinion that Kerry’s post-2004 voice — angrier, more partisan, more direct — is a heck of a lot more genuine than his 2004 election-year Senatorial hedging. Yes, it fits the current Zeitgeist, and many pundits think it’s calculated. But I think this is the real Kerry. Yeah, he’s bitter that George Bush managed to beat him in 2004. (So am I.) But with renewed focus on his current job and a bit of tending to the grassroots, he’ll be very hard to beat in ’08.

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Comments

  1. Yes, it’s the Herald, but still.  GOP in MA is trying to push this for all it’s worth, but it’s not happenning.  Nice try, but no.

      • Schiling’s robocall…
        “These past couple of weeks, Sox fans all throughout New England trusted me when it was my turn on the mound, now you can trust me on this: President Bush is the right leader for our country.”

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    • from the Herald article:

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      Schilling said in 2008 he’ll vote either for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), whom he called a personal friend, or Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). “If they are both on the ticket it will be a tough choice,” he said.

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      Right, because those two guys are so close on all the issues that it would really be a tough call.

      • Stick with the baseball and the video games, Schill.

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        The MA Republicans are pumping him up as a candidate because they he’s the only Republican with positive name recognition in the Commonwealth. That says a lot about their bench.

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        But even Schilling wouldn’t break through the dreaded 38% or so that seems to be about the maximum statewide support for Republicans right now. (Let’s call it the “Torkildson Thirty-Eight” in honor of the new MA GOP chief…).

  3. I believe that, like Gore, Kerry is finding his real voice these days.  Neither was really comfortable playing playing Clintonian triangulation games – which caused them to be wooden speakers in the past.  Now they are both loosening up dramatically.

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    My suspicion is that We The People will send a wave of non-triangulators to Washington in 2008.  Kerry will be among them.

    • I was feeling pretty unethusiastic about Kerry myself–tired of the eternal “positioning” game.  (Hopefully there will be less of that now that he’s not running for president, though I get the feeling it’s part of his nature.)  There’s sure been plenty of reasons to be down on him over the past several years.

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      But when people start talking about alternatives like Scott Brown and Curt Schilling (lol!) you sort of get snapped back to reality–and remember why you’ve always voted for him before.  I really don’t see him falling to a Republican challenger.  Or expect a significant primary challenge to happen.

  5. I had occasion to call Kerry & Kennedy’s office in 2002 to inquire about status of an unemployment extension bill.

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    Kerry office- not sure of Kerry position, transferred and left voice mail on somebodys voice mail, nobody could talk. Still waiting for call back.

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    Kennedy office response– supportive, the senator supports and we will keep you updated.  There was a return phone call and 2 email followups.

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    I will never suppor a Republican but encourage any democrat to challenge Kerry. 

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    If Kerry decides not to run this would be best and create a chimney effect raising all boats!

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    • Constituent services matter on every level of government.  Kennedy, Markey, McGovern – all responsive with follow-up.  Kerry, Neal – nada, zilch, nothing.  With the Congressmen it was not about living in the district, or not, we have family in all of the above districts that were in need of assistance.  I would be curious to see some ranking of elected officials on constituent services.

  6. chimed in on this topic today, in pretty amusing fashion.

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    The headline yesterday said the Republicans are “ready to pounce.” … Ready to pounce? That rhymes with ounce, which is what anybody who thinks Kerry is beatable must have been smoking…. The Mass. Republican party might do better if it changed its name. How does Taj Massachusetts sound?

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    He’s also got some very good advice for the nearly-late state GOP:

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    Instead of worrying about Kerry, why doesn’t the state GOP try to win those four House seats where their candidate got either 48 or 49 percent of the vote last fall? Then-Rep. Sue Pope was edged in a moonbat MetroWest district, 51-49. Rep. Vinnie deMachedo’s brother Ollie lost an equally tight race in Kingston with 49 percent. Two other Republican House candidates lost 52-48. In all, four seats were lost by a combined total of 2,085 votes. Granted, even if the Republicans had captured all those seats, they’d still only have 23, in a 160-member body. But hey, you have to start somewhere, and I don’t mean the U.S. Senate. Am I right, Ken Chase? You know what I mean, don’t you, Jack E. Robinson?

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    Also worthy of note is the fact that, the Gov’s race being over, Kerry Healey has regained her former appellation:

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    The former lieutenant governor, Muffy Healey? Sorry, she’s booked at a tea-and-crumpets soiree at Camelot High.

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    Heh.

  7. But I would prefer to vote for any Democrat challenging him. Unfortunately the delegation is busy with the majority status, nobody could out fund raise John Kerry, and I can’t think of any prominent statewide Dem willing to make the challenge. Perhaps we could bring back the Duke.. but again thats just mere fantasy talking now.

    • Please tell me that, with the Senate 51-49 in favor of the Democrats and a lot of potentially close races coming up in ’08, you wouldn’t seriously consider voting against a Democrat for the Senate.  Please.

  8. Scott Brown worked as a male model. Now picture Scott Brown, now reflect on Zoolander.  Scott Brown.  Now Zoolander.

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    I would really enjoy seeing swimsuit photos that would surely appear if he makes a run at Kerry.

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    It’s true – check out the Wiki page and referring article: http://bismarcktribu…

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    Mmmm, models.

  9. he isn’t at least a little bit vulnerable, then Massachusetts deserves to be the laughing stock of the nation.

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