Following a suggestion from reader Steverino, here is an open thread on this evening’s budget announcement as so excellently liveblogged by Charley. Pitch in with your thoughts.
Please share widely!
Reality-based commentary on politics.
You had to start this the night everyone is busy weeping over their 401(k)s. Which, by tomorrow, will be 201(k)s.
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Actually, in Japan, it’s tomorrow already. And the Nikkei has dropped 700 points.
They wanted to claim that people panicked because a glitch caused a 200-point drop at once, so people thought there was a run.
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Is this a temporary drop, or another crash? Oy.
Yes, there was a glitch caused by a changeover to backup computers that recalculated the DJIA very abruptly downward. But the changeover was itself mandated by a selloff of massive volume that overwhelmed the other systems.
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There is great uncertainty about the meaning of this correction. Some take the South Park cop attitude–nothing to see here, move along–but some technical indicators predicted this dive almost to the day, and their predictions for the economy moving forward, especially in March, are truly hair-raising.
Nikkei took a big drop it’s been stable for a while. China is stable. HK took a dive. I predict Europe down 2-3% today, then U.S. up or down up to 200 DJI points either way. The really interesting thing to watch, I think, is the USD. It’s at 1.32 right now, down a touch. If that starts to fall, bad bad bad news. As to the computer “glitch,” I don’t think it’s fair to say all smoke and mirrors: 200 points melting in a minute had a big psych impact, although the facts are just as you state. I’m hoping for the South Park ending tomorrow: nothing to see, move along.
…http://www.spiegel.d… indicates that it was the Euro decreased in value against the US$ to 1.322 on Tuesday. You seem to be suggesting that it was the US$ that decreased.
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The German DAX decreased also, but slightly less than the Dow.
If you look at the “time and trades” reports, the glitch just delayed the recording of the trades. At that point, the pre-glitch selling trend continued. Doesn’t appear that the glitch caused or even contributed much to the drop.
There’s the guy I voted for!
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Maybe the first few weeks of any neophyte executieve are just supposed to be mulligans. Clinton spent time with don’t ask, don’t tell while America was looking for a way out of a recession. Similarly, Massachusetts has been looking for a way out of our own economic doldrums (lagging job and wage growth, record-setting foreclosures), while the MSM here at home have been more concerned with price of interior decoration, rather than the price of bread.
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In that vein, tonight’s speech worked on multiple levels. Like anything else, there was what the Governor said, and how he said it. What did he say? He wound campaign rhetoric into tangible policy positions backed up by a budget that turns out to me more modest than originally thought. The Governor outlined a fiscal policy that, rather than score short-term political points, had long-term aim. Honestly, more than progressive economic policy geared to helping those on the bottom-rung of the economic ladder, it has been public policy that takes the long view that has been the hallmark of Democratic principals for the past 20 years.
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Patrick’s goal with his budget seemed two-fold: to grow the Massachusetts economy, while providing a balanced budget. A budget, he noted, which is not balanced on the backs of the poor.
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But here’s the thing to remember about budgets (particularly balanced ones): there will always be more people not getting money out of any given budget, than there are people having their wishes fulfilled. That’ll be true everytime. The best we, as Democrats, can ask, is that Patrick puts the Commonwealth in a position to grow. To lure people back into the state with a combination of job growth and affordable housing and quality schools.
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And then there’s the “how he did it” part. The forum was excellent, and Patrick was at his casual and charming best. There’s no doubt he’s the real deal. He took questions from the audience with patience and deference, but was also unafraid to admit he didn’t have the answer to a question, or that he disagreed with the premise of a question. When he disagreed, he did so politely. And I would be remiss if I did not give a shout-out to “Matt,” the trusty budgetary aid with all the answers. Nice job, man.
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I was impressed with tonight’s meeting. But the devil is in the details and the budgetary process is sure to be contentious. Let’s keep our eye on the ball as it rolls through the legislature.
Let’s hold off on the re-canonization. The main pattern for Deval thus far has been an amazing facility with saying things (campaigning) and real problems with doing things (governing). I do expect that the mistakes we’ve seen are the result of his inexperience as an executive, and they’re beginner’s errors rather than a general trend. That said, I’m waiting until I see him do something to push this budget through before I say he’s on the right track.
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The main pattern? He’s been in office a month and a half! This is his first budget. I’m just saying, this is a promising start.
Have you read my numerous comments that he gets a free pass from me until the end of summer? We don’t know anything yet — not from the stream of pretty words that has convinced some people that Deval is going to be a great governor, or the stream of poor decisions that has convinced others that he’s a klutz. I agree that this budget is the first real test, and has real potential to outweigh his bad calls thus far. But to me it still comes down to the budget he signs, not the budget he proposes: action, not words.
The Boston Globe Story has a link to the NECN complete coverage.
…aggregate elements of the budget by some sort of topic categorization and have a separate thread on each topic. The way it’s being run, all the budget elements together, you’re going to get a hodge-podge of comments.