On February 2nd, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq was released. and its Key Judgements were made public. The Key Judgements are a four page document and I encourage all of you to read it. You can find the link to it on our website at cartergilson.com.
But it’s pretty bleak.
The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.
Did you catch that? It’s not a civil war, it’s worse.
