Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Comments

  1. they included Fred Thompson into the poll for the first time, and he got 12%!

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    question: do you think Mitt would help Rudy, McCain, or Thompson “Balance the ticket”?  i’m just not seeing it. 

    • While he joined Law & Order for its descent into TV drama mediocrity, he does have an interesting resume.

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      If he runs, I think it’ll funny that couch potatoes around the USA will glance up at his commercials and say, “Hey, it’s that guy!  From Law & Order!”

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      Then they’ll return their attention to the Doritos.

  2. Keep in mind that according to the poll:

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    Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted March 23-25, 2007. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is %3 percentage points.

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    So Romney may have actually polled 0%

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    By the looks of this, The BMG Flying Monkeys will have their work cut out for them trying to save Mitt!

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    Fly! Fly! Fly!

    • 3% is only the margin for results near 50% – Mitt has a margin of +- 1.08%, so 95% chance he’s between 2% and 4%

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      That said, this is a national poll so it doens’t mean that much as far as support in early primary states.

        • I never took a statistics class. Since this poll has Mitt at 3%, is that good or bad?  No calculators allowed!

  3. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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    In other words, we aren’t sure if they’re voters, or even actually adults.

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    In polls of GOP primary voters, Romney is in a statistical dead heat with McCain and Guiliani, and in fact, McCain has been weakening – it will be interesting to see how his anti-deadline soundbites play.

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    BTW – of these 1,007 Gallup respondents – 18% (each) had never heard of Gonzales or Karl Rove.  I think that gives a clue as to how many are primary voters.

    • The latest Rasmussen poll of likely GOP primary voters has the following:

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      Rudiani  35%
      Honest John  15%
      Newt!!!  11%
      Mitt  8%

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      I’m not qaulified to comment on polls, but I’ll take a shot anyway. It looks to me like Mitt is in a distant 4th place. Fred Thompson was not included in this poll, but look at Newt!!!!!

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      Maybe this poll of likely GOP primary voters is ‘irrelevent’?
      Statisticians, physicists, yogis, help a brotha out. Read the tea leaves for me, is Mitt actually leading the field here?

      • And Romney’s in the top tier, which is all that can be expected.

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        There is a section of the base which wanders, like Diogenes, in early polling.  Three months ago, they were probably all for Condoleeza Rice.  But she’s not going to run, and neither is Gingrich.  When they come to acccept this hard truth – where are they likely to gravitate?

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        If interested, here’s a great article I wish I’d written about Joe Shlabotnik Voters.

  4. I agree with Peter P–national polling data are irrelevent.  It’s not a national election.  Instead, it’s a series of state elections, and the most important poll would be likely primary voters in each of the early primary states.  Does anyone have THAT polling data?  If so, please post it for us to see.  If Romney does well in the early states, he’d springboard into the next level of primary states and from there to the big time.  But let’s see polling data on the primary state level and THEN we’ll have a discussion about Romney’s prospects. 

    • then say 32%?  I see some wishful thinking by some posters.  This is the end of the third month that you have been saying the same thing.  Name recognition, too early, blah, blah, blah.  In that time Mitt has actually spent money running commercials?!?!?  Who runs commercials now?  Yet, he still polls in the low single digits.  Even people who aren’t running poll better than him.  Where’s the fork?

      • If it is 32%, 3% or 100%, unless you know what the numbers are referring to.  It sounded like this was a national poll, and therefore almost entirely meaningless.

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        I’m sure John Kerry polled very well among residents of the EU, but they didn’t get to vote.

        • now everyone run along. 

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          Don’t know if you fully understand this but it does matter.  If Mitt was running in the high teens you could say he’s in the top tier and could string a couple of wins it might be enough to make a difference.  But when your consistently running in the single digits and actually went down from 8% to 3% after running freakin’ commercials in January!!!  There’s a problem.

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          If people throw out possible candidates and each and every one of them surpass you in the polls, guess what? There’s a problem.

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          Mitt is raising money which will keep him around for a while, but people are just not responding.  You see it with each passing month, going from 8% to 11% is one thing, but going from 8% to 3% is another.

          • Does not matter.

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            A national poll is going to be dominated by residents of big coastal states.  By the time any of these people vote, the primary will be all over.

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            Polls in early primary states are interesting.  All other polls are meaningless noise.

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            Actually, I fear they are worse than meaningless, since it appears that they, as they did in 2000 and 2004, contribute to Democratic cocooning.

            • as it defines the front runners. Republicans always nominate the front runner.  Mitt is in the bottom tier with 3%, the confidence Republicans shows when they introduce new candidates in these polls and they always out perform him.  It’s Giuliani and McCain’s race to win.

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