[First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]
Back when it was unclear whether or not John Kerry would enter the 2008 Presidential race, his approval languished.
Survey USA:
11/22/06: 48-50 (-2 net approval)
12/20/06: 43-53 (-10 net approval)
1/24/07: 40-53 (-13 net approval)
Late January: Kerry bows out of 2008 Presidential scrum
Early February: Kerry launches “Set a Deadline”
2/22/07: 47-47 (0 net approval)
3/20/07: 47-48 (-1 net approval)
4/25/07: 54-41 (13 net approval)
So, in December & January, it seems that voters were turned off by Kerry’s continued flirtation with another Presidential race, giving him double-digit net negatives. He then took himself out of the Prez scrum and brought his numbers to about even in February and March. Now that he’s fully committed to serving the Bay State in the Senate and running for re-election, his numbers are back up to a healthy double-digit positive. Next month can solidify Kerry’s approval or raise more questions if it dips considerably; but, for now, this must be welcome news to Kerry, who may only face token opposition.
The Globe had a column Sunday analyizing a recent poll on Kerry: that poll (I think done the last week or two) still had him with a net-negative, but also had him easily beating Bill Galvin or Chris Gabrieli in a primary challenge.
I think Chris Gabrieli would beat Kerry for Senator. Gabrieli ran a pretty good campaign for governor. As a Patrick person I would support his candidacy.
and that would be enough to beat Gabrieli, who has now run for office three times and never won, despite all the millions of his own money he spent.
I’m not really sure how much pull John Kerry has anymore . I think people are a little tired of him. Gabrieli or Marty Meehan would be great senators. As A Patrick person I admire Chris Gabrieli for his knowledge on issues and his commitment to after school programs and education in Massachusetts.
There will be no challengers in the primary and Kerry will win by 20 points against the fill in the blank Republican candidate.
that HAverhill44 failed to mention is that Kerry and Gabrieli live right across the street from each other. Just as Bryan Joyce didn;t dream of endorsing anyone other than Deval, Gabrieli would never run against Kerry.
Gabrieli vs Kerry. You can run against your neighbor . i see nothing in the election laws that state you can not
is the wealthiest section of the welathiest part of Boston, and one of the most prestigious locations in which to live in the entire world. They don’t need anything, they;re just fine.
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Of course it would be legal to do so, but it would not be very neighborly!
It is about publice service not money or status. The real question is what would John Kerry do if he lost ?
Massachusetts deserves a debate on issues. I hope Kerry has several opponents that give him a run for his money or her money.. whatever they are married so i guess it doesn’t matter.
but rather because the Massachusetts GOP has all of the punch of the Tampa Bay Devils Rays. They couldn’t find a decent candidate if their lives depended on it. Even if they could, he’d still win in this national environment. Certain states won’t elect certain parties to Senate seats. MA and NJ, for example, won’t elect Republicans to Senate but will elect them to be governor. Similarly, WY wouldn’t send a Dem to Washington, but the state has been happy to send Dems to Cheyenne.
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Personally, I think the best thing that happened to Kerry was that the Dems took back the House. Had they not done so, Barney Frank would not have become chairman of the powerful Financial Services Committee, and he might have figured why not take a shot. I think Frank would crush Kerry in a primary challenge. Kerry is not terribly loved, even in MA, and if the right Dem came along he could be picked off in a primary. I don’t think just anyone could take out Kerry in a primary, however, probably just Barney.
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Of course, this whole discussion is moot, but I just think it would be fascinating if one of the Reps had the initiative to seize on his ambitions (hello Stephen Lynch, Mike Capuano, Ed Markey) and challenge a not-terribly loved Kerry. Even if the Dems hadn’t won back Congress, I doubt that anyone of them would have had the guts.