Jim Ogonowski has decided to run as a Republican for Marty Meehan’s seat:
Ogonowski’s brother, John, was one of 92 people killed when American Airlines Flight 11 from Boston to Los Angeles was flown into the World Trade Center.
… His brother’s death played a “significant part” in his decision to run for Congress, Ogonowski said, recalling the day as tragedy for his country and his family.
Ogonowski immediately gets name recognition and public sympathy. He says his politics are a typical New England Republican blend: fiscal conservative, social moderate. At first glance, I’d call him an interesting candidate, possibly viable. But I strongly suspect the GOP brand has been so thoroughly trashed in MA that he’ll have a tough time of it. This is at least in part because the GOP moderates have failed to hold the center together, a few jailhouse conversions notwithstanding.
If he caucuses with Republicans, he’s a Republican. And I think Massachusetts has had about enough of that.
unless he publicly says he won’t support John “It’s not ‘boner,’ dammit!” Boehner for leader. It’s one thing to be a MA Republican; it’s quite another to pledge your allegiance to the fetid cesspool that is the national party.
One more candidate in the north, in Dracut no less where Finegold was banking on conservative democratic support.
I imagine that his impact on the Democratic primary will be close to nil, unless of course there is no GOP primary, then I’m still not sure it helps anyone in particular.
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And that would be a shame for the GOP. While I know nothing of Ogonowski, my feeling is that the only Republican that can win this is Lawrence Mayor Michael Sullivan, who formed an exploratory committee a few weeks back or so.
If more conservative unenrolled voters vote in the Republican primary. That’s even more likely if there ends up being a competitive Republican primary.
Well, they do, but I’d surprised if enough of them vote in a special-election primary held the day after Labor Day to swing the election one way or the other.
Outside the Boston area, usually over a third of the voters in a Democratic Primary are unenrolled.
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I’m fishing around to see what I can find for number for a special election. But it is simply not the case that they don’t vote in Primaries. The reason people choose to be unenrolled is different from why the choose whether or not to vote.
Strong name recognition already. My father who doesn’t even follow politics knows who he is.
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He has a compelling story to tell.
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He’s served our country for 28 years Active Duty Air National Guard.
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He’s a small businessman and a farmer.
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He is very active in his community.
But Sullivan’s the mayor of the second most populous city in the district, and he creamed the Democrat that ran against him in 2005 (yes, city elections are nonpartisan, but local Dems really wanted that one, iirc).
that I heard was that he started up an exploratory committee. That was a week or two ago. If he’s said he’s not interested more recently, he hasn’t said it loudly.
Who can suck up money, volunteer time and maybe primary votes from conservative unenrolleds. It’ll pull votes from everyone but Eldridge but mostly Finegold who is banking on Dracut delivering for him.
He will have no effect on that primary.
I finally got what you meant Jaybooth. Sorry. You meant that he may draw conservative Unenrolleds from dracut who may vote for finegold.
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My prediction is that Eldridge wins on the Dem side mainly because all the other candidates are from the northern part of the district. And he walks away with Metro-west and the Rte 2 corridor.
What gives Eldridge a free pass on the Rt 2 corridor and the west? Finegold has already clearly set out a 29 town plan and is making as many contacts as he can down there. I think Jamie’s backyard is definetly in danger. This is not a State rep race.
I think Jamie is going to do very well in that area, but I readily agree with you that Finegold has a lot of potential district-wide. That said, if I was Barry I wouldn’t be focusing much on Concord or Acton, and instead trying my damnest to conquer Andover, Lawrence and Tewksbury. There are more votes there, and it is will be much harder for him to win an area that is very receptive to Jamie.
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In the end, I think Jamie will be able to pull this off because he is going to be able to get a large chuck of the vote in the southern towns. The key for him is to do just good enough in places like Methuen, Haverhill and Lawrence. In this primary, you don’t need to win the big cities like Lowell to win the primary. All you’ll need is like 25%.
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I think Jamie’s going to win with a great grassroots organization, but I think Barry has an excellent shot himself, and should not be ignored. And incidentally, while I think it is fine for the GOP to put up a good candidate in this race, I think whoever it is, s/he will have ZERO shot to win. The national environment is awful for Repubs, and no one, not even Mike Sullivan will be able win. Whoever wins the Dem primary can start measuring the curtains for their office in the Rayburn building! Sorry Eabo
Yeah, I think Eldridge has an advantage right now because it’s really hard for people to contest him in his backyard. He’s got good presence in that area because of all the work he did for the Deval campaign there. He’s behind in money, but Donoghue hasn’t raised much besides her own and Tsongas has to have almost exhausted the “$2,300 for a 5-min phone call” rolodex by now. He’s got a lot more room to max out with his existing donors. I am surprised at how much Finegold raised already.
The only true conservative (Democrat anyway) in the race is Miceli. He’s been busy campaigning door to door, but not raising money.