State House News has a new poll out that, while not uniformly positive, is generally pretty good for the Gov.
Noteworthy, at least to me, was the fact that despite all the unremittingly lousy press surrounding the CaddyDrapesCiticall stuff, and the Globe’s grudging take even on good news stories, Patrick’s fav/unfav ratings haven’t taken that bad of a hit since his election.
Statewide personal popularity FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE Patrick: Now 49% 31% November, 2006 56% 28%
Also interesting was the generally nonplussed reaction of the poll respondents to the stories of questionable newsworthiness.
Impact of news stories about Patrick leasing a Cadillac, replacing his office drapes, and hiring an aide for his wife:
More positive toward Patrick: 3%More negative toward Patrick: 44%
No impact on opinion of Patrick: 52%
No surprise that very few said the stories actually improved their view of Patrick. What’s noteworthy is that a majority of respondents said it had no impact.
Finally, the respondents clearly heeded Patrick’s call not to “give up” on him:
After he recently apologized for early mistakes and asked citizens not to give up on him, do you personally feel that you’ve given up on Deval Patrick in terms of his ability to serve productively and effectively as governor, or not:
Yes, given up: 17%
No, not given up: 79%
My guess is that the number of EaBoClippers out there, who would have said “given up” regardless of what Patrick did in his first 100 or so days, is something like 17%. So those numbers are unalloyed good news.
All of which seems to bear our pollster Gerry Chervinsky’s take on the whole thing:
At that point [right after all the stories came out], the governor looked in real danger of losing his ability to drive the agenda at the State House and statewide. But generally, the punditry believed he had time to recover. Chervinsky agreed but went farther, saying the poll numbers indicate Patrick?s image problem was never that bad. ?All this media focus on the symbolic is really an insider-y, media-driven story that the state really isn?t buying,? Chervinsky said.
There are, without question, some cautionary numbers in this poll. Specifically, the “job rating” numbers aren’t great — only 31% give him an “excellent” or “above average” rating, while 45% opted for “below average” or “poor.” Related are these numbers:
Patrick has accomplished:
More than expected 3%
Less than expected 40%
About as much as expected: 52%
The 40% “less than expected” tally could have been worse, but it’s cause for concern.
On one of the more important substantive issues, there’s more good news for the Gov.
When asked what they think should be the first tactic employed to balance the state budget, tax increases on businesses, or tax increases on individuals, or cuts to state services, responses were almost evenly divided between business tax increases and state service cuts, fueled by a strong gender gap:
Total Men Women Tax increases on businesses 36% 27% 43% Cuts to state services 31% 44% 20% Tax increases on individuals 7% 7% 7% Combination of above 8% 9% 7% The plurality of 40% support Governor Patrick?s plan to close business tax loopholes, while 36% oppose that plan.
My take on all of this: the majority of people in the state still believe in the promise of Deval Patrick’s governorship; more people than not think his ideas will take the state in the right direction; they recognize (as does he) that he made some early missteps; and they don’t think that those missteps are a very big deal.
If the Unfavorables rose 3%, why did the Favorables drop 6%?
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The about More/Less/No Change ‘favorable’ and ‘expectation’ questions do not ascertain what the person’s original opinion was – I would have responded ‘No change’ myself.
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The best number is the 79% who haven’t given up. He has 15 of his 16 quarters left – there is still a chance for him.
Would they be so kind to present crosstabs? Polls are meaningless with out access to crosstabs.
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Also, I would have said I haven’t given up on Deval. Because I never was up to begin with. I would imagine many are like me. It’s such a subjective question.
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On all other metrics it seems as if Deval still has worries.
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Personal approval ammounts to, hey is Deval a nice guy? Yup. It’s the “would you have a beer with him test.” On job approval, there is a serious problem for Deval.
The crosstabs are here. Do I have to do everything for you?
I truly didn’t see a link to them on the first page. I got 4 hours sleep last night. Cut me some slack man.
You have an attitude problem, and until you cut others some slack, I see no reason to cut you any.
Patrick: 49-31 favorable, -7
Spitzer: 62-20 favorable, -12
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What’s different is that Spitzer has been PURPOSELY spending political capital as fast as he can, with an incredible reform agenda out of the gates.
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Spitzer itches to govern, to take on the forces of status quo. It drives him. He loves the fight. Look at what he did to the Wall St tycoons. And they still respect him.
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Spitzer wanted to slash $1.3 out of Medicaid (essentially to subsidize a big increase in education spending). The unions went beserk.
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Yet the New York Times editorial page — think about that, they’re much farther left than the Globe — saw things Spitzer’s way.
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More charter public schools in worst districts? Patrick and Spitzer support; Spitzer delivered — hammering House Speaker Silver and absorbing a 6-figure anti-Spitzer ad buy from the teachers union.
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Money for stem cell research? Spitzer forced it past a NY’s reluctant Republican state senate.
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Spitzer has been getting laurels in every paper from NYT to Daily News to NY Post to NY Sun.
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I’m glad our Gov has political capital. David and others — how do you want him to spend it?
Patrick has spending political capital unintentionally for months now…how about he spends some on the budget for a change?
New York is still a two-party state.
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And the thing about a one-party state, like Massachusetts, is that a one-party state is a no-party state (as V. O. Key observed), and new coalitions must be built for each new issue that comes along.
I think Patrick would benefit from being more aggressive. That’s not generally the corporate mentality, however, which may be holding him back a bit. He can think back on the dynamism of the campaign and then try to attach that drive to some specific interesting projects (one or two should be enough) as a way of invigorating things.
The last thing Deval should do right now is “be aggressive”. Spitzer is aggressive because he has the luxury of knowing what he’s doing — he has a long and rich background in New York government. He is getting a lot done because he can. As we’ve seen since January, Deval can’t. I hope Deval puts his head done and concentrates on learning the ropes before trying to make huge moves.
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Sad too that the poll analysis is basically an extended version of “well, people don’t think he totally sucks, so that’s something, isn’t it?”
If that’s really how it was interpreted, the fav/unfav numbers would have moved a lot more. IMHO, anyway.
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While latter has risks, so does former: if you establish perception that you’re going to just drive change at the margins, you can lose support from some of those who’d back you for real reform.
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2.
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How about you replace “our country” with Syria? đŸ™‚
Not bad but first 100 days could have been better. As someone who did not support him I admit I have NOT given up on him. However all of this misses one big thing. The upcoming budget battle. That’s the real test. Unlike crying about immigrant raids etc.
It is unfortunate that the poll did not include cuts to local services in the options section of closing the state budget deficit. Local services are the vital organs of the Commonwealth and they are hemmorhaging.
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This connect the-dots-game needs to be kicked up a notch. Close the loopholes.
It’s interesting to note that folks are looking at Governor Patrick from the perspective as “well, he hasn’t had a complete meltdown”, or ” there are some good things that happened, it wasn’t a total disaster.”
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Isn’t that kinda sad? To look at the first 100 days and thanking God that there is some discernible wreckage?
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The governor has done nothing but run from one leak in the dike to another and try to plug the holes. We were kinda promised that an entire dam was to be built to replace the leaking dike. Now we are wondering if we will survive when the dike finally breaches and the torrent sweeps everything away.
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After witnessing the past three months, I’m not overwhelmed with enthusiasm. I think Di Masi has already formulated the fiscal playbook and the governor will either like it or lump it.