What we have in this election – and particularly in the race for the Democratic nomination – is a multi-candidate race with most of those candidates currently serving in elective office. Four of the five Democrats currently hold office. In addition to Eileen Donoghue, there are three state representatives: Jamie Eldridge (D – Acton), Barry Finegold (D – Andover), and James Miceli (D – Wilmington). Each of these – except for Miceli, whose district is outside of the Fifth Congressional District – has a built-in base of support. In a race where someone could win with 21 percent of the vote, one should not rule out anyone who has the kind of base of support that either Eldridge or Finegold has.
One can look back as an example to the 1998 election in the Massachusetts Eighth Congressional District, when Michael Capuano first went to Congress. Capuano, who had been the Mayor of Somerville, won in a crowded Democratic primary field in large part because he capitalized on his electoral base in the City of Somerville.
While Donoghue and Tsongas led in fundraising during the first quarter of 2007, Rep. Finegold was not far behind them – close enough to be competitive with them. While Rep. Eldridge lagged in fundraising, he seems to be ahead in organizing progressive activists – many of whom supported Governor Deval Patrick’s campaign last year.
The Fifth Congressional District is quite diverse and far-flung, ranging from the cities of the Merrimack Valley – Lowell and Lawrence – to the northwestern suburbs of Boston – including Acton, Concord, and Sudbury. What could emerge is a series of two person races: Tsongas vs. Donoghue in Lowell, Finegold vs. Donoghue in Lawrence and Methuen, and Eldridge vs. Tsongas in Acton, Concord, and Sudbury.
What makes this dynamic particularly hard to predict is that the special primary is now scheduled for September 4 – the day after Labor Day. Apparently, given state election laws and the date of Rep. Meehan’s resignation, this was the latest date on which the primary could be held – and state election officials felt a September 4 election was better than one in August. (Why Congressman Meehan chose to time his resignation in this way is a question worth asking.)
In any case, turnout might not be high on the day after Labor Day. As is the case in any low turnout election, victory will go to the best organized candidate. It’s impossible to tell at this point who that might be.
Couldn’t agree more. For reasons I don’t fully understand, the Globe has become the Niki Fan Club and thinks she is the greatest thing since sliced bread, as evidenced by these absolutely gushing pieces. In terms of Eileen, I think that it will be exceedingly difficult for her to win as she and Niki will be fighting over two key groups: Lowell area voters and women.
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In my view, this race has numerous striking similarities to 1998, which bears well for my candidate, Jamie Eldridge. Four of the five candidates are from the northern part of the district (which is also where two-thirds of the population is). Jamie is the only candidate from the south. While the candidates will rightly fight over the the northern cities, if Jamie can do in the south what Capuano did in Somerville (get 50-55%) and do respectably in the Lowells, Methuens, and Haverhills, he will win in a low-turnout-primary. A tall order for sure, but I think it can and will be done.
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Being in Boston, Lehigh should remember that Ray Flynn had 100% name recognition in most of the 8th district and still lost by a good amount. Now, while Niki doesn’t have Ray’s baggage, she has her own issues. This race is wide-open, especially considering the uncertain turnout. And, incidentally, Capuano was outraised and outspent by Tom Keane, Chris Gabrieli, George Bachrach, and Majorie Clapprood, and still won handily.
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The Globe and others should, in the words of Bill Parcells, “put the annointing oil away.”
He also outspent the eventual winner Capuano in the 1998 primary. Forgot about him.
While Eldridge is well known in the South, Tsongas has good support in the area and is strong on environmental issues. It is very optimistic to think that Jamie can sweep the South and overcome a lack of recognition (and money) to tally any significant votes in the balance of the district.
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David, why do you assume that Donoghue and Finegold will battle in Methuen and Lawrence. Why Donoghue in Methuen and Lawrence?
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It would be interesting to look back to the eighth and see the polling trends from beginning to end, who had effective organizations, paid and free media strength, and which issues were most effective.
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These analyses seem to be built on speculative “what ifs” rather than an understanding of the demographics, breadth of support, organization and uniqueness of a special election.
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Finally, as a volunteer for Niki Tsongas, I’m seeing district wide good will, a strong professional staff, and top to bottom strength of organization. Having watched Deval build vote and momentum, I’m seeing a lot of similarities.
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I guess we’ll see who’s right as of September 4th.
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Will W
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until it happens. Eldridge is really stirring up a lot of the activist base. If Tsongas is too soft on health care for too long, that will enter the mainstream narrative, and if she punts on another issue that could start making the narrative gel. Eldridge is building a solid field team, from what I hear and is getting good buzz by taking strong stands. Eldridge is especially good at labeling himself before anybody else can. And in a Democratic primary in Massachusetts, I’d never bet against the person who is able to show himself to be in the progressive wing of the party if they also have some institutional support along with it. (That is, Bonifaz had little institutional support or money so he couldn’t get traction, but Patrick was able to get both institutional and progressive support. I suspect Eldridge is in the latter category.)
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I’m not saying all these things will happen or that Eldridge doesn’t need to make up some serious ground on many fronts — he needs to increase his name ID, get many, many more donors, and build up some institutional support. (Name ID, I think, is the most crucial at this stage of the game. It’s frustrating that Congress has Federal level responsibility and questioning, but primarily local level press.) Also, Tsongas has yet to make any significant gaffes, and I’m not entirely sure she will–she seems disciplined and on message, even if she is vague on the issue of health care. Maybe if the case could be made that healthcare is an instance of a pattern of being vague, it will have even more teeth. We’ll see!
Will, if you call having a plan “wishful thinking” then you’d be incorrect. Of course it is about execution, but that’s the best way for him to win. We’ll see if that strategy can be executed. Similarly, we’ll see if Niki’s current strategy of hoping name recogition will carry her resonates with voters.
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In terms of 1998, of course this isn’t an exact science. This is politics dude, and no two races are the same, but if you don’t see a lot of those similarities between this race and 1998, then you’re willfully blind. The first poll in that race gave Ray Flynn an eight-point lead in a ten-person field–pretty good, his starting number of 21% was troubling. I would presume that the first polls in this race have Niki well ahead based solely on her name. However, I think that her first numbers will be her highest ones. As the race progresses, the other candidates will become known for the first time. Right now Niki has the highest name rec, but if her first number is not 35+, that would be interesting, and it will bode well for her opponents.
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If I was running Niki’s campaign, I would of course focus most of my game in the northern part of the district. If she doesn’t do that, she’s going to lose. Two-thirds of the district is there. Similarly, Jamie needs to work on the southern towns as he is not as close or known in Lowell or Methuen. If his main focus was Lawrence, then he’d get killed. That’s common sense.
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And btw, I agree Niki thinks she will do well in these towns on September. Maybe she will. But I think she will get crushed by Jamie in Acton, Harvard and Boxborough. We will see.